主题：【欧洲经济】德国法国经济增长低于预期，欧元回软 -- 西风陶陶

Euro Declines After German Growth Slows, France Cuts Forecast

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell from its highest level in a month against the dollar in London after the German economy expanded less than forecast and the French central bank cut its growth estimate.

German gross domestic product rose 0.2 percent last quarter, compared with a median forecast of 0.3 percent by economists polled by Bloomberg News. France reduced its first-quarter growth prediction to 0.5 percent from 0.7 percent.

``We are at a dangerous point,'' Niall FitzGerald, chairman of Unilever Plc, said in a televised interview with Bloomberg News in London. ``The dollar's decline has been too precipitous. It's probably going to get in the way of a real recovery in Europe.''

Against the dollar, the euro fell to $.12819 at 8:43 a.m. in London from $1.2833 in New York late yesterday. Europe's common currency earlier reached a one-month high of $1.2846. The dollar weakened versus the yen to 105.36 yen from 105.47.

The dollar had its biggest decline in two weeks yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said interest rates in the U.S. are ``appropriate'' and the dollar's slide has caused ``no material adverse side effects.''

``His comments tell us nothing but `sell the dollar,''' said Minoru Shioiri, foreign-exchange manager in Tokyo at Mitsubishi Securities Co., a unit of Japan's biggest bank by market value.

`Jawboning'

Any further decline in the dollar may prompt European officials to express concern about the euro's rally to protect an export-led economic recovery. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet denounced ``brutal moves'' in exchange rates on Jan. 12, when the euro rose to a record $1.2899.

``The speed of the euro's advance these days is fast enough to ignite jawboning from European officials,'' said Kenichiro Ikezawa, who helps manage $1 billion of overseas debt at Tokyo's Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. ``That could work only to slow down the euro's advance, but not to reverse it.''

European finance ministers this week said they are banking on the Group of Seven's condemnation of ``excess volatility'' in the foreign-exchange markets to tame the euro's advance against the U.S. dollar. The group included the phrase in the statement it issued on Saturday.

Greenspan yesterday told the House Banking and Financial Services Committee that interest rates are ``appropriate,'' boosting speculation U.S. yields will stay lower than in the euro region and other major economies such as the U.K. and Australia.

``With inflation very low and substantial slack in the economy, the Federal Reserve can be patient in removing its current policy accommodation,'' Greenspan said.

Machinery Orders

The yen gained on expectations Japan's economic recovery will lure global investors to the nation's assets.

Overseas investors bought 1.46 trillion yen ($13.9 billion) worth of Japanese shares in January, extending net buying to a 10th straight month, the Ministry of Finance said. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.9 percent, after rising 24 percent last year, the first annual increase in four years.

Japanese private machinery orders, excluding shipping and utilities, rose 8.1 percent in December to 1.02 trillion yen, seasonally adjusted, from November, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo. The increase compares with a 2.6 percent median gain forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 40 economists.

The surplus in Japan's current account, the broadest measure of trade and investment, rose 12 percent last year to a record 15.8 trillion yen, the Ministry of Finance said. The surplus narrowed by 17 percent to 1.23 trillion yen in December from November, seasonally adjusted, the ministry said.

`Room for Appreciation'

``The yen certainly has room for appreciation, even though the Bank of Japan may continue to buy U.S. dollars,'' said Loong at AMP Henderson Global Investors, a unit of Australia's biggest life insurer. ``We can see that getting close to 100'' yen per dollar over the next three to six months.

The Bank of Japan, at the behest of the Ministry of Finance, spent a monthly record of 7.15 trillion yen in the four weeks to Jan. 28 to weaken its currency. It sold 20.4 trillion yen last year, five times the amount sold in 2002, the ministry said.

``We'll take action as needed,'' said Zembei Mizoguchi, vice finance minister for international affairs, told reporters at the ministry. ``Disorderly currency moves aren't desirable.''