主题：【原创】机会在那里？ -- suisui

的确，中方错过了当时的良机。但经济危机到来的时候，除了危更有机，怎么抓住机遇，是考量中国智慧的时候，这一点我们就不引申了。

你看一下下图中Keystone Pipeline的走向和项目简要说明：

The 3,456-kilometre (2,148-mile) Keystone Pipeline will transport crude oil from Hardisty, Alberta to U.S. Midwest markets at Wood River and Patoka, Illinois and to Cushing, Oklahoma. The Canadian portion of the project involves the conversion of approximately 864 kilometres (537 miles) of existing Canadian Mainline pipeline facilities from natural gas to crude oil transmission service and construction of approximately 373 kilometres (232 miles) of pipeline, pump stations and terminal facilities at Hardisty, Alberta. The U.S. portion of the project includes construction of approximately 2,219 kilometres (1,379 miles) of pipeline and pump stations.

The Keystone Pipeline will have an initial nominal capacity of 435,000 barrels per day in late 2009 and will be expanded to a nominal capacity of 590,000 barrels per day in late 2010. Keystone has contracts with shippers totalling 495,000 barrels per day with an average term of 18 years.

这条管线是要增加美国心脏地带的炼油能力，而非西海岸。美国对其整体工业布局有一个全盘计划，某些地区的炼厂是针对中东的低硫轻质油，某些是处理墨西哥湾和德洲产的原油。最近Illinois州的唯一一家炼厂刚完成了针对重油的生产改造，这和Keystone项目的进度是相辅相成的。我觉得美国没有计划把重油运到加州，尽管那条路更近一些。

修建出海管线虽然要穿越落基山，和Keystone输送距离相比，成本造价能高多少？我表示怀疑。