主题:【求助】中国经济已经负增长? -- 正确
The Chinese Devil Wears Prada: Why 0% Growth is the New Size 6.8%
The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth. China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis, differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally adjusted (SAAR) basis.
When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth.
Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.
Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.
And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall economy may be close to a recession
So the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse. So China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim.
纠正一点:俺的偶像Roubini不是老匹夫,人家还是青葱大叔呢。有片片为证:(我是不是很八卦?)
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🙂向老广同志补充Roubini原文
😜厚积薄发兄不愧举证党开山祖师啊,专门刨人老底 1 在磨刀的胖猫 字0 2009-01-27 14:00:33
🙂现在是个经济学家都失常了,不止是在中国的问题上…… 2 蚂蚁不爱搬家 字129 2009-01-27 07:11:06
🙂想起主席谈形式逻辑 5 老广 字354 2009-01-27 09:53:54
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