主题：【原创】历史研究之事理人情 -- 庄汀2

我查了FAO网站上关于津巴布韦02年-05年的农业简报

7 November 02

27 February 03

(13 October 04

12 October 05

其中02年和03年的简报清楚地提到了跨这两个年度的农业季节里津巴布韦遭遇了巨大的干旱。

7 November 02简报：“Above-normal precipitation in October and first week of November, particularly in central and eastern parts, provided adequate soil moisture for planting of the 2003 cereal crops, which has started. However, prospects are poor reflecting disruption in the agricultural sector following land acquisition activities and prices of seeds beyond the reach of large numbers of farmers.”

其中特别提到由于津巴布韦政府财政状况极差和刚土改完的普遍贫穷使得大量的农户购买不起种子。

27 February 03简报“Prospects for this year‘ cereal crops are poor. In the maize growing areas of the north, good rains in late January and February provided relief to crops affected by prolonged dry spells earlier in the season but they are likely to have arrived too late to prevent yield reductions. However, the final outcome will depend on the rains until early April. In southern and western areas, the worst affected by dry weather during the cropping season, precipitation was insufficient to reverse severe drought conditions. The outlook for the cereal crops, mainly maize, is also unfavourable due to serious shortages of agricultural inputs and reduced plantings following land reforms in the commercial sector. While last year the commercial sector accounted for one third of the reduced production of 498?00 tonnes, this year only 15?00 tonnes are expected from commercial farmers. Early forecasts point to a maize crop around last year抯 level. An assessment of the crop conditions is currently been undertaken by the National Early Warning Unit.”

而其后的津巴布韦政府和农户普遍处于破产状态，即使没有国际制裁也不可能再去购买价格高昂的种子、化肥或者其他的农业资料，而本土的化肥公司由于原料不足也大规模减产。

这应该就是津巴布韦农业大减产的直接和唯一的原因。津巴布韦政府的管理不善在FAO的报告里没有提到，其实这种情况下农业管理好不好已经不是决定因素了，是不是？

相信大多数人认真读了这些资料以后都得出自己的结论，不管津巴布韦政府的农业管理能力如何，土改后正是因为其政府和农户缺少资金，同时又在土改的第一年遭受了大旱灾的双重打击才使津的农业生产陷入了如此巨大的困境。

看了FAO网站的相关内容，在感谢国际社会为津巴布韦提供了大量直接援助的同时，我也清楚地看到大部分国家和组织在这样长的时间里并不曾想到为津巴布韦农户提供解决实际困难的真正援助——用于恢复生产的援助，而不是仅仅给挨饿的人提供远远不足的应急救助。

让我们感到安慰的是这样的消息：

07年 “贾庆林与穆加贝出席援助津巴布韦农业机械设备交接仪式”

“BBC 中文網| 中國報導| 中國大額援助津巴布韋農業 - [ 转为简体网页 ]中國全國政協主席賈慶林到訪津巴布韋，兩國簽署價值5800萬美元的農業援助計劃。”

09年 “津巴布韦中国农业技术示范中心举行奠基仪式”

...