主题：【讨论】下任总经理的施政纲领 -- wqnsihs

But America is different from Rome

1.First, Rome corrupted itself into a dictatorship with absolute power in the hand of Czars. Therefore, the good or bad decisions of one emperor can easily determine the fate.

USA will not convert from a republic into a kingdom because of the constraint of the constitution and its people. Never forget 40m Americans have guns in their hands and there is a long history of self-rule ever since colonial time.

2.Rome empire was crushed by constant attacks of various barbarians such as Huns,Vandals, Goths... Those barbarians wanted easy and comfortable life of Romans, but lacked skill in building up a city life, so the only option was to plunder Romans. Western Empire was defeated by nomads/horsemen and its own corruption.

In sum, geopolitically bad location and backward military technologies are the reasons.

Today's America is isolated by two oceans. Before any barbarians can attack America, they must first swim across two oceans or smuggle through customs. Not easy job at all.

Canada is actually part of America, languagely or culturally (Quebec as the exception, but do not expect them to side with Asians. Those are arrogant Frenchmen), therefore, the Northern border is secured.

Mexico is the only source of trouble, but the southern wall is building up and America can always use extreme tactics to completely shut off the southern border--and they are not shy of resorting those tactics.

The worst situation is that American goes back to its old status before WWI. With its human capital, capitalism system, meritcracy, rich natural resources (still a lot in US, esp., when you combine Canada), US is still a geopolitical power.

没有千年不瓦解的帝国--what America lost is only the military control outside its border, it is hard to change its down republic system. BTW, I have to emphasize several times here: US appears to be a democracy, but it is a republic system with the mask of democracy. I am not so naive as to believe that it is Greek-style popular democracy--it is also not the objective of those founding fathers.

没有千年不瓦解的帝国--agree, but will not be in your lifetime, as well as in my lifetime. My grandson will be lucky to see it in his lifetime.

当然瓦解后再凤凰涅槃的可能目前只能指望中国。--hehe, before that, one famous French scholar argued even in 2004 that "we are already in the post-(US)empire era". German finance minister can not restrain his pride and has declared in 2007 that USD-era was over. Europeans were so confident in 2006-2007 as if they will reclaim the global leadership again, despite ALL THE INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESS in the whole EU political infrastructure.

hehe, now we will see whether it is Euro or USD that is going to lose global credibility first. A small Greece has completely embarrass the whole EU elites.

It is EASY TO SEE OTHER PEOPLE'S WEAKNESS, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE ONE'S OWN weakness, because human beings suffer from overoptimism when it comes to themselves.

BTW, there have been several serious American publications on the rise and fall of empires. The American elites have busily studied the history of the British empires, German lessons and the ancient Rome. Every elite club member I talked to has studied Niall Ferguson's books.

As I said before, do not be blindly optimistic and do not underestimate your counterparties.

只是时间问题和瓦解的方法问题。而且从以往经验来看，瓦解一定是从内部开始。中国西汉的瓦解表面上出一个王莽这种野心家，实际是社会有普遍的期望改革制度，避免兼并和贫富差距过大；--yes, fully agree. Roosevelt rescued American through Great Deal. What I worry most is the everrising power of the financial elites. Those people have weak loyalty to America and they can be the Trojan horses of America.

In the long run, America must reverse its current trend of shrinking middle class and polarization between the super rich financial elites and the poor underclass.

To solve this problem, one has to cut off free global trade... therefore, Obama's tactic is not completely wrong (bad against exporters, but good for underclass).

美国现在就有许多不安定因素，虽然其制度有一定的自我修复能力，但是并不足够。当年罗马元老院一开始也是有制约能力的。--empirical question, history can answer that. Keep in mind, Rome has no constitution and 3 branchs. It is different now.

所以钱穆说得好：没有永远合适的制度，制度必须靠人来执行。--good point, America has declining civic education and the young generation know Britany Spear well, but had little knowledge about the civic tradition and republic ideal--very dangerous sign in US now--even the retired former Supreme Court Justice Sandra O'Connor showed serious concern on this issue. The only good point is that the civic traditions are still strong in New England, the bedrock of American democracy.

至于举的轮胎特保案，实际上这是美国国内政治游戏的一部分，已经先就跟我们协调好的，答辩只是作秀，不管谁去说，结果都一样。所以国内没人当回事情了。郎咸平这么嘲笑，第一不厚道，第二也是外行，

--答辩只是作秀，不管谁去说，结果都一样。hehe, but at least can you send somebody who can speak English well and who at least showed some logic in debate? Now I understand your logic--that might explain why some senior diplomats in North America can not even speak English or French well... anyway, they do not matter and their incompetence is not an embarrassment to China, right??

郎咸平这么嘲笑，第一不厚道，第二也是外行--hehe, you keep your opinion. I have mine.

中美贸易摩擦的本质不是微观问题，更不是他说的固特异在中国建厂理由这种雕虫小技就可以糊弄得了的，美国政治家如果这么弱智，美国早完了。

--If you can present a solid legal argument, at least the court still might rule in favor of you. Before the rubber case, there was one case in which one Chinese nail maker fought in US court and did win (other chinese exporters never replied, thus faced all penalty customs rate).

If you can not even build a solid case, of course, it is easier to trade your industry off politically--because America does not have to bend its own law. America played fire against European exporters before and was hit back badly: European exporters use law firms which employed former senator and administration officials as partners to fight in court. They are using American elites to fight against the current political elites.

Of course, those retired senators are not cheap--but it is still cheaper to engage those law firms since you keep your US market share.

美国政治家如果这么弱智，美国早完了。--this is not China, court is separate from the executive system. You can play dirty, but you can not play too dirtily in the court. MOST COURT DOCUMENTS ARE AVAILABLE TO PUBLIC VIEWING.

主动自己套上一些枷锁：劳动保护法，人权保障等等- if you call labor protection, better pay, better labor right protections as 枷锁, THEN I STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH YOU.

Chinese have been cheap 苦力 for more than 100 years. There is one specific English word refers to the dirty cheap chinese labor--IT IS GLOBALLY FAMOUS. The sad thing is that the chinese elites also share the same perspectives when they deal with THEIR OWN COMPATRIOTS.

If you believe that average Chinese deserve to work so hard and still get 500RMB+ every month without 劳动保护法，人权保障, then I can only give you my contempt.

In china, 劳动保护法，人权保障 are TOO LITTLE, TOO LIMITED AND NEVER SERIOIUSLY ENFORCED. Where can you find a nation on the earth in WHICH THE HARD-WORKING LABOR NEEDS TO burn himself, or threat to jump off the building or commit suicide just in order to get his due salary before SPRING FESTIVAL???????????

In the last 30 years, China's labor productivity has been growing at a rate of around 5% due to capital investment and technology improvement. But the labor wage as a percentage of national income keeps on declining over the last 30 years.

The benefits of growth goes mostly to the economic/political elite classes and average working class did not enjoy the fair share of cake they deserve--nobody represents their INTERESTS in the political system and their voices were crowded out.

Now Chinese middle-class was pulled down due to high real estate prices and inflation.

That's why China's consumption/GDP ratio is as low as 38% these days and China has no domestic purchasing power in relation to its production capacity.

That's what you call 枷锁：劳动保护法，人权保障等等!!

Nike's Asian suppliers totally abused their Asian workers (many were Chinese) with insufficient labor protection, insufficient toilet facility, poor cafe. Those Asian managers did not change until Nike sent out labor practice compliance teams to constantly check their labor practices.

I do not understand why some Chinese believe that 劳动保护法

is 枷锁---do Chinese deserve to be treated as pigs? Do not they deserve higher pay in line with productivity growth, better toilet facilities? My God. Can not believe your last comments.

• agree. In china, 劳动保护法，人权保障