主题:【原创】经济学的客观预测与社会的主观预期 -- MRandson
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举个例子:(外链出处)
Professor Carmen M. Reinhart对墨西哥危机,亚洲危机和这次的金融危机都有过准确的预测。
Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises for over a decade. In the early 1990s, she wrote (with Guillermo Calvo) about the fickleness of capital flows to emerging markets and the likelihood of abrupt reversals--before the Mexican crisis of 1994-1995. Prior to the Asian crisis (1997-1998), she documented (with Graciela Kaminsky) the international historical links between asset price bubbles and banking crises, and how the latter could lead to currency crashes creating a "twin crisis." She identified (with Ken Rogoff) the possibility of severe economic dislocations from the sub-prime crisis in 2007. Her work is frequently featured in the financial press around the world, including The Economist, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal. She has appeared in CNN, CSPAN, BBC, and NPR, among others.
危机依然发生,是因为有些利益集团想让危机发生。
无论是战争,还是危机,都是很好的利益重新分配的机会。
- 相关回复 上下关系8
压缩 3 层
🙂sorry, too large a topic. 4 parishg 字668 2010-03-17 18:56:23
🙂您是如何做到“战而胜”,“历史的开拓”的呢? 苏城 字0 2010-03-13 09:52:47
🙂我怎么觉得经济学家的预测太多不靠谱 1 乐趣到此 字346 2010-03-13 06:07:43
🙂与大家的猜测相反,西方智库们很多都预测出这次危机
🙂这里又有一篇: 在FT上直言近代宏观经济学理论的无用 乐趣到此 字304 2010-04-26 20:07:52
🙂去看看博弈论吧。博弈论是经济学的一部分 苏城 字0 2010-04-27 10:55:30
🙂是西方宏观还是微观经济学的一部分?我想知道 乐趣到此 字336 2010-04-27 18:23:40
🙂博弈论属微观,很重要。题目太大,我谈不了。 苏城 字0 2010-04-28 04:26:32