主题:【整理】中国地震局支出预算表 -- 迷途笨狼
共:💬27 🌺10
顶多就是有限的蒙,可能蒙对,更可能蒙错,最后权衡下来,全球都选择了不蒙。
如果那一次的成功是必然的话,为什么这种必然没有被重复?不仅仅是中国,其他国家都没有广义的地震预报。
摘抄一下wiki的词条:
An earthquake prediction is a prediction that an earthquake of a specific magnitude will occur in a particular place at a particular time (or ranges thereof). Despite considerable research efforts by seismologists, scientifically reproducible predictions cannot yet be made to a specific day or month.[1] However, for well-understood faults seismic hazard assessment maps can estimate the probability that an earthquake of a given size will affect a given location over a certain number of years.[2] The overall ability to predict earthquakes either on an individual basis or on a statistical basis remains remote.[3]
- 相关回复 上下关系8
压缩 2 层
🙂错了就是错了,挣巴个什么劲? 2 迅哥 字751 2010-04-22 10:36:04
🙂探索和研究还是要搞的 szxy 字76 2010-04-23 22:47:23
🙂地震预报与对地震的研究是两回事,就好像治疗艾滋病与 蚂蚁不爱搬家 字1171 2010-04-23 09:24:34
🙂你的科学方法如果不能被重复,怎么能称之为“预报”?
🙂辽宁海城地震预报的成功是国内与国际学术界所公认的 迅哥 字1352 2010-04-22 16:47:26
🙂这一次成功了又如何? 马踏飞燕 字254 2010-04-22 23:32:51
🙂海城地震比较特殊,主震之前有一系列小地震,引起了注意 Redbee 字256 2010-04-21 17:15:35
🙂风云卫星要花多少钱? PBS 字239 2010-04-19 07:33:19