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主题:【整理】中国地震局支出预算表 -- 迷途笨狼

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家园 你的科学方法如果不能被重复,怎么能称之为“预报”?

顶多就是有限的蒙,可能蒙对,更可能蒙错,最后权衡下来,全球都选择了不蒙。

如果那一次的成功是必然的话,为什么这种必然没有被重复?不仅仅是中国,其他国家都没有广义的地震预报。

摘抄一下wiki的词条:

An earthquake prediction is a prediction that an earthquake of a specific magnitude will occur in a particular place at a particular time (or ranges thereof). Despite considerable research efforts by seismologists, scientifically reproducible predictions cannot yet be made to a specific day or month.[1] However, for well-understood faults seismic hazard assessment maps can estimate the probability that an earthquake of a given size will affect a given location over a certain number of years.[2] The overall ability to predict earthquakes either on an individual basis or on a statistical basis remains remote.[3]

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