主题：欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照--in Feb. -- parishg

Germany still refuses to understake its leadership and it lacks domestic political support to do so. haha, hopeless European hypocrites who can only debate and debate in a useless European parliament.

America will not just finish the killing in 3 weeks--the decline will be persistent with a general downward trend for Euro and European financial assets. You should see big drops on a few occasions, then even small rise, then big drops again. I will not be surprised if the whole "crisis" persists into 2011. Anyway, if you want to scare out European capital into American dollar assets, you definitely have to give enough time for capital to flight, right? And you can not do it too fast because it might hurt your own market too if it turns into a GLOBAL FINANCIAL asset meltdown.

Next domino is now Portugal--it is a dying nation.

Then Two key pieces to fall are

Spain(real estate bubble burst, banking problem, large current and budget deficit, social unrest due to 20%+ unemployment, but solid debt level) and

Italy (lazy, womanizer, ass-obsesser, HIGHLY inefficient, >120% debt/GDP level, totally incompetitive in terms of industrial products and social infrastructure).

Spain/Italy are two big ?s. If one of them falls into death spiral, then I really do not know where is the bottom for Euro and Euroland...

Keep in mind: low Euro-USD exchange rate is not bad for Germany/French export. It is bad for PIIGs because capital is flowing out and its financial system is collapsing. Based on purchasing power parity, Euro is still heavily overvalued at 1.33. Anyway, Germans NEVER WANT TO HAVE ITALY in this Euroland. Italians and Greeks are two big cheaters in this Euro league.

Actually during this crisis, the only financial asset that gain value is gold: during 2008 crisis, gold fell when dollars appreciated. This time, all fiat money fall, but gold jumps.

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