主题：钓鱼岛事件告一段落，之后的中日关系何去何从？ -- 冰排冻骨

GDP和军事实力是他们两倍以上的时候，他们或许愿意跟你友好了。他们现在看中的是中国这个市场，有求于中国；中国除了有求于日本的技术，还想整合整个东亚＋东南亚，这个过程不会很和谐的，关于日本是不是接受的态度，给你看个文章：

[URL= http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20100922rc.html ]日本时报：中国不大可能成为亚洲的主导者[/URL]

A Sino-Centric Asia Unlikely

From the Japan Times:

How Asia’s geopolitical landscape will evolve over the next couple of decades is not easy to foresee. But it is apparent that an increasingly assertive China is unwittingly reinforcing America’s role in Asia as the implicit guarantor of security and stability.

There are at least four possible Asian security scenarios.

亚洲未来的4种情形：

The first is the rise of a Sino-centric Asia, as desired by Beijing. China seeks a multipolar world but a unipolar Asia. By contrast, the United States desires a unipolar world but a multipolar Asia.

中国主导。

A second scenario is of the U.S.remaining Asia’s principal security anchor.

美国主导，还是现在的状态。

A third possibility is the emergence of a constellation of Asian states with common interests working together to ensure both power equilibrium and an Asia that is not unipolar.

多极的亚洲，估计日本比较喜欢。

A fourth scenario is of an Asia characterized by several resurgent powers,including Japan, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and a reunified Korea.

小日本还不排除让朝鲜和韩国统一来扰乱中国。

Of the four scenarios, the least unlikely is the first one. China's neighbors increasingly are uneasy about its growing power and assertiveness. While Beijing aspires to shape a Sino-centric Asia, its actions hardly make it a credible candidate for Asian leadership.

认为第一种情景最不可能。