淘客熙熙

主题:cited article, 中国除了不断地说“不”之外 -- parishg

共:💬53 🌺408
全看分页树展 · 主题 跟帖
家园 Hu is no longer

Tianjin's mayor, so he should not be blamed for making comments as a bystander.

It is now the elected officials' reponsibility to create a better system there. Esp., for China, as the other G2 nation.

Americans are desperate now, so the two policies you mentioned below are just deja vu of 1970s. They were all desperate policies used in desperate time before.

America has no incentive to dismantle the current global trade system since it enjoys most of the benefits and only suffers inherent hangover every 20-30 years.

NOW if China wants to lead the world, China needs to propose a better solution. 世界经济需要的不是新的技术,而是新的世界社会经济秩序。 Then China needs to give a better plan to the whole world, do not expect Americans or Canadians will do that. They are the largest beneficiaries under the current system.

1、盖特纳的+-4%如何确保实现?-- As I said, desperate measure. It was proposed before against Germany and Japan, nobody takes it seriously.

2、QE2---美元贬值最大的危险真是通胀。这通胀不仅来自国内,还来自美元信用下降造成的国外美元回流。

-- Ben bets it will not happen, because of the forthcoming Euro collapse. Other countries will still keep USD as the reserve currency. Gold supply is too small compared with their national USD reserve.

如果因为美元信用下降或者贬值造成的虚假涨价影响到其他国家之间的双边和多边贸易,他们不转用其他货币或者非常规结算手段才怪。

-- Euro is not better. Global gold is not enough for the current trade payment need. 他们不转用其他货币或者非常规结算手段才怪-- hehe, you rush to conclusions.

那时候多出来的美元到哪里去?回流美国,加速通胀!

-- 回流美国,加速通胀!In early 1980s, Volcker increased the interest rates to more than 10%. Overseas dollars flowed back and were eliminated electronically through the Fed reserve system. Inflation rate fell dramatically in US and Europe.回流美国,加速通胀!--finance is not so simple as you understand. You are expert in military gadgets, but finance is not simple as you think.

establish new infrastructure to support another 60-year of technological expansion and economic growth,

--this is the 1970s solution which does not destroy the current system. It is a low-cost option to avoid too much political disruption.

I do not think it is the best option, but compared with war and depression, it is at least an alternative with lower social cost. I hope challengers to America can lead the world to a better system. Now it is China's turn.

通宝推:lilly,
全看分页树展 · 主题 跟帖


有趣有益,互惠互利;开阔视野,博采众长。
虚拟的网络,真实的人。天南地北客,相逢皆朋友

Copyright © cchere 西西河