主题：【原创】能量看世界（1）-- 能量 物质循环的动力 -- 海峰
只要大家公认某台计算机和计算程序可以通过， 就没有几个人再把它当回事了。 深蓝下赢国际象棋冠军后，就不需要继续设计深深蓝，深深深蓝再去专门对付人类象棋对手。 没有计算机专家认为能通过了图灵测试的计算机不可能存在，只是时间和具体编程问题。 图灵测试只是一个计算机的里程碑和技术挑战。 如果通过计算机图灵测试是理论上不可能达到的目标， 年年参加图灵测试的计算程序比赛岂不是和年度永动机发明比赛类似。
Wiki turing test prediction
Turing predicted that machines would eventually be able to pass the test; in fact, he estimated that by the year 2000, machines with 109 bits (about 119.2 MiB or approximately 120 megabytes) of memory would be able to fool thirty percent of human judges in a five-minute test. He also predicted that people would then no longer consider the phrase "thinking machine" contradictory. He further predicted that machine learning would be an important part of building powerful machines, a claim considered plausible by contemporary researchers in artificial intelligence.[41]
In a paper submitted to 19th Midwest Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Science Conference, Dr. Shane T. Mueller predicted a modified Turing Test called a "`Cognitive Decathlon" could be accomplished within 5 years.[78]
By extrapolating an exponential growth of technology over several decades, futurist Raymond Kurzweil predicted that Turing test-capable computers would be manufactured in the near future. In 1990, he set the year around 2020.[79] By 2005, he had revised his estimate to 2029.[80]
The Long Bet Project is a wager of $20,000 between Mitch Kapor (pessimist) and Kurzweil (optimist) about whether a computer will pass a Turing Test by the year 2029. The bet specifies the conditions in some detail.[81]
- 相关回复 上下关系8
🙂你的逻辑完全错误 类反词典 字951 2011-05-26 17:11:34
🙂图灵是测黑盒子，不是来测是不是人造。 三力思 字449 2011-05-27 05:24:20
🙂你还是在用隐含的前提 类反词典 字814 2011-05-27 17:02:32
🙂图灵测试就是为了否定自身而存在的
🙂还是那个问题 类反词典 字132 2011-05-27 18:32:42
🙂你不用图灵测试这个专有名词，我根本不会和你讨论自洽性 三力思 字641 2011-05-27 19:14:53
🙂你的论述成立的前提是图灵测试逻辑不自洽 类反词典 字1508 2011-05-27 20:57:38
🙂太有启发意义了 2 陈王奋起 字168 2011-05-25 09:34:41