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主题:【原创】即使没有文革,中国经济也不会提前进入第二世界 -- 葡萄

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家园 有一件很有意思的事

如果你把2008对应1929,

那么四年后,即2012年,大约会有类似1933年的事件发生:

Roosevelt inaugurated; begins "First 100 Days" of intensive legislative activity.

A third banking panic occurs in March. Roosevelt declares a Bank Holiday; closes financial institutions to stop a run on banks.

Alarmed by Roosevelt's plan to redistribute wealth from the rich to the poor, a group of millionaire businessmen, led by the Du Pont and J.P. Morgan empires, plans to overthrow Roosevelt with a military coup and install a fascist government. The businessmen try to recruit General Smedley Butler, promising him an army of 500,000, unlimited financial backing and generous media spin control. The plot is foiled when Butler reports it to Congress. (More)

Congress authorizes creation of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration, the Civilian Conservation Corps, the Farm Credit Administration, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Emergency Relief Administration, the National Recovery Administration, the Public Works Administration and the Tennessee Valley Authority. (More)

Congress passes the Emergency Banking Bill, the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, the Farm Credit Act, the National Industrial Recovery Act and the Truth-in-Securities Act. (More)

U.S. goes off the gold standard.

1933 Hitler Becomes Chancellor of Germany -Presidential elections were held in March 1932. Hitler's vigorous denunciation of the Versailles Treaty, together with his denunciation of Jews, was hugely popular in a Germany suffering from high unemployment and inflation. This appeal, however, failed to win him the election. General Hindenberg won instead.

In July's Reichstag elections, the Nazis won the largest number of seats, but not a majority. No coalition government could be formed, and once again elections were called. Again the results were inconclusive.

In January, the centrists entered into a coalition with Hitler, making him the new Prime Minister of Germany. In February, the Reichstag burned down, and Hitler charged the fire had been the work of the Communists. He arrested all the Communist members of the parliament. Elections held a week later gave the Nazis only 44 percent of the votes. With the Communists in prison, however, Hitler was able to get the Reichstag to pass the Enabling Act. This made Hitler a dictator, removed Jews and other "undesirables" from all position of power and dissolved the Reichstag. Europe had entered into a dark era.

1933 Dachau Established - The Nazis rounded up all potential adversaries, arresting tens of thousands of opponents and Jews. There was no place to put them in jail, so the first of many concentration camps was opened at Dachau.

1933 Japan Leaves Leagues of Nations -(3/27/33) The League of Nations received a report from its Commission of Inquiry convened under the Earl of Lytton. The Commission found that Japanese action could not be justified as an act of self-defense. Furthermore, the report stated that the creation of Manchukuo did not result from a "genuine and spontaneous independence movement." The League adopted the American policy of non-recognition of any conquest. The result: the Japanese announced that they were withdrawing from the League.

1933 New Deal Begun -(3/4/33) The inauguration of Roosevelt as President brought with it the "New Deal," which saw the creation of a multitude of government agencies and activities to combat the Depression. These measures included large–scale work programs for the unemployed, and full–scale government projects.

1933 Western Hemisphere Agreement -(10/10/33) The nations of the Western Hemisphere entered into an agreement in which they renounced aggression and use of force in the Western Hemisphere. The agreement marked the beginning of reconciliation between the nations of the Americas and the United States, which had intervened many times in the internal politicy affairs of the South America.

简单来说,1933年是一个相当关键转折点。基本上二战和美元与黄金脱钩这两件大事的趋势已经很明朗化了。在1929年,除了少数人,大部分的老百姓是绝对不会想象到:1。世界经济的运转脱离黄金,2。世界发生大战。

太阳底下没有新鲜事。

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