主题：【编辑】美洲经济周报0629 -- 南方有嘉木

以后有时间再来写写。简单地说，现在石油货币的主要矛盾在美元和欧元，人民币还不是矛盾中心，也没必要去急着成为美元的主要挑战者。另外一个需要现在开始准备且我们也有后发优势的问题是，石油之后，如何让人民币成为“核能货币”。

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这里这篇文章，可以看一下，但其所说的，有事实，也有些过度引申，批判地看吧：

Cost, abuse and danger of the dollar（节选）：

To keep the permanent demand for dollars going, oil sales must remain in dollars. That is why the US tries to keep as much influence as possible, as well on the US owned IPE and NYMEX world oil markets, as with the locals in power. By doing so the US secures its oil supply at the same time. Beyond that, lucrative contracts can be obtained from the local power, with which a maximum of benefits can be seized from the oil production.

But when the locals in power do not want to sell their oil in dollars anymore, the US has a problem. Then, the US-president will not explain how dependent the US is on the dollar demand. The conflict is always camouflaged. And to do so, always an emotional theme is choosen. In times gone by this was the danger for communists, today it is the danger for terrorists, fundamentalists and other popular bogies, like “the enemy has weapons of mass destruction” or “the enemy tries to make nukes.”

The fact that there is, rationally, not a single proof, does not matter. The emotions always win. Even the fact, that these accusations can be turned around and then can be proved, is noticed by hardly anyone. The US has weapons of mass destruction and has used them; the US has nukes and has used them, and even threatened with them still in 2000.

But once again, at the moment accusations are loaded with emotions humans switch off their intelligence. Reason is no argument for peace anymore. The theater is only about the launched accusations. And because, as a result, only specialists of weapons of mass destruction or nukes are called upon to give their opinion, nearly nobody finds out what the conflict is really about.

Venezuela

In Venezuela, since many years, the US tries to pull down president Chavez, pretexting he is a dangerous communist. Chavez has nationalized the oil industry and has set up Barter-deals to export Venezuelean oil in exchange for medical care from Cuba and others. In Barter deals there is no necessity for dollars and the US has no profit from the oil trade.

Iraq

Until 1990 the US maintained lucrative commercial contacts with Saddam Hussein. He was a good ally. For instance, in 1980 he had tried to free the hostages at the US-embassy in Teheran.

But in 1989 Saddam accused Kuwait of flooding the oil market and making the oil price go down. The following year Saddam tried to annex Kuwait. It led to an immediate turn around of the attitude of the US. With the annexation Saddam would dispose of 20 percent of world oil reserves. The Iraqis were chased out of Kuwait by the US, with an alliance of 134 countries, and condemned to water and bread by a UN-embargo that lasted ten years.

Although the US sought a way to re-establish its influence in Iraq, Saddam’s switch to the euro on November 6, 2000, would lead to the US invasion. The dollar sank away and in July 2002 the situation got that serious, that the IMF warned that the dollar might collapse. A few days later the plans for an attack were discussed at Downing Street. One month later Cheney proclamed it was sure now, that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. With this pretext the US invaded Iraq on March 19, 2003. The US switched back the oil trade into dollars on June 5, 2003.

There is a huge difference between trading Iraqi oil in euros and trading it in dollars.

Iran

The US is in conflict with Iran, since it was thrown out of the country in 1979. According to the US, Iran is a dangerous country of fundamentalists.

The geographical position of Iran, between the Caspian Sea and the Indian Ocean, complicates US ambitions to control the rich reserves of oil and gas on the East side of the Caspian Sea. To transport this oil and gas to world markets without crossing neither Russia, nor Iran, pipelines had to be built through Afghanistan. Plans were made in the early nineties, but the pipelines are still not there. Meanwhile the US tries to frustrate all competing projects of other countries.

Of course, this led to multiple conflicts of interest with Iran. George W. Bush would pretext the presence of Osama bin Laden to start a war against Afghanistan.

In 1999 Iran publicly stated it wanted to accept euros for its oil as well. Iran sells 30 % of its oil production to Europe, the rest mainly to India an China and not a drip to the US, as a result of an embargo established by the US itself. In spite of Bush’ threatening tale, mentioning the country in his famous “axis of evil”, Iran started to sell its oil in euros from spring 2003.

After that, Iran wanted to establish its own oil-bourse, independent from the IPE and NYMEX. It would start on 20 March 2006. Considering the very weak health of the dollar at that time, a success of this bourse could have led to a catastrophe for the dollar and thus for the US. That is why tensions were very high at the beginning of 2006.

Finally the opening of the oil-bourse was postponed. After that Putin established an oil bourse in Russia as quickly as possible, which took away the interest of the Iranian oil bourse.

The US accuses Iran of wanting to make nukes. This is not new. Iran and other Arabic countries feel threatened by the nuclear arsenal of Israel, that is not a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. In 1981 Israel has bombed the nearly completed power plant in Osirak, in Iraq. Since, several Arab countries consider to get nuclear arms to counter the Israelian threat.

It may seem strange, that a country disposing of oil, wants nuclear energy. Iran exports oil, but imports refined oil products. These are needed for lighting, heating, transport and industry of its growing population. For many Iranians the real price of these products would be too high. That is why they are sold cheap, with losses for the Iranian treasury. The switch to electricity should provide affordable energy for the whole country. Iran needs the revenues from its oil exports to finance the import of many other products it needs. That is the reason why Iran does not refine and consume its oil itself.

The bombing of power plants remain an interesting objective for the adversaries of Iran. If Iran cannot dispose of nuclear energy, it would have to decide to consume its oil, instead of selling it in euros. Lately, the chief of the IAEA, ElBaradei, warned the adversaries not to attack the Iranian facilities.

Further more, the IAEA and the US have conceived a masterly plan to take possession of the world market for nuclear fuel, in concert with a few other countries. They are using Iran as a pretext and a test. With this plan the demand for dollars would be secured for a long time, even after the oil age.

Russia

Since 8 June 2006 Russia too has turned its back to the dollar. By selling the dollar surpluses to central banks, Putin took care that it had no influence on the dollar rate. However, the basis for the world wide dollar demand has decreased a lot. The US needs Russia for its plans to take possession of the world market for nuclear fuel, so a revenge by the US is unlikely.

----Cost, abuse and danger of the dollar

By Rudo de Ruijter,

Independent Researcher

Netherlands

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