主题：和平与战争 -- 唵啊吽

"Information stays and moves around in a GR world, with "blackhole" included, 能量(信息)守恒, 霍金辐射=出来混总是要还的

if we can model the system into some kind of closed system. "

1.

overall, I guess TGchina will be ok for the foreseeable future, for many reasons: internationally, Russia is kind of "buffer", and now "ISIS" islam state, 牵制美国, etc

2.

now, just for "fun", let's look at TG using "黑洞"霍金辐射 as an analogy, do a quick and dirty analysis of chairman X's recent few trades.

3..

first of all, 黑洞熵, and 霍金辐射.

"在没有霍金辐射的概念以前，物理界有一個难题，就是如果把有很多熵的東西丟進黑洞裡，那豈不是把那些熵給消滅掉了嗎？但是熵在宇宙裡是永增不減的，因此這代表 黑洞應該也有很多熵，而有熵的任何東西都會釋放黑體輻射，因此黑洞也會釋放黑體輻射？但釋放的機制又如何？霍金輻射就解釋了黑洞釋放黑體輻射的機制。根據海森堡测不准原理，在真空中會瞬间凭空且自然地產生許多粒子-反粒子（虛粒子）對，並且在极短的时间内成對湮滅，在宏观上沒有质量产生，如果一個粒子對在黑洞附近形成，由於黑洞的引力場很強，導致配對誕生的正反粒子被扯開，有可能有一個跌入事件視界，而另一個沒有，從而被黑洞的引力提昇成實粒子。但這樣就違反了能量守恒定律，所以另一個粒子的質量一定是從黑洞本身的質量而來——这就是黑洞釋放輻射的一個簡化解釋。"

wiki.

4.

霍金辐射=出来混总是要还的

TG may know that better than anybody else, now holding a huge short position against almost the entire world, basically playing a "黑洞" game of some kind.

and likely because of that, X 其实有些手忙脚乱.

X's recent trades:

X 选择性反腐败收买老百姓, but X 收买老百姓 basically with 空头支票, 不是实在的, no real meat to 老百姓, but he really and 实实在在的 fxxked up some of his own TG troops;

then, X 选择性私有化国产, 实实在在的收买民间资本家奸商;

X's potential profit and loss:

now, 老百姓傻吗? 老百姓=useless 干电池, may be; but 老百姓傻吗? we don't really know now. can 老百姓 tell 空头支票 they got from X vs 实实在在的"国产" X gives to 民间资本家奸商?

now, how about those fxxking Chinese 民间资本家奸商?

can X red gen II rely on those 民间资本家奸商 fxxkers to 保卫党中央, 保卫 chairman X? if one day uncle sam figures out a way to play 政权更迭 game in china, now X is giving those 民间资本家奸商 with china's 国产 at almost price of 大白菜?

the worse case: if 民间资本家奸商=奸商, and as plan B, can X turns around at critical time and try to rely on 老百姓的傻, hoping 老百姓 to stick their necks out to 保卫党中央, 保卫 chairman X, now X is basically issuing 老百姓 "空头支票"?

those are tough questions, any answers could be of speculative natures=risk

but we did get some information:

X 其实有些手忙脚乱, he 选择性 does this, and 选择性 does that, trying to diversify and hedge his trades, cover his ass, and but what he has really accomplished so far?

He looks a little bit weak domestically, even more so internationally.

and what do you do if you have some leverage on him?

you ask chairman X to pay you more, and more.

why not(:)?