主题：评基辛格《冠状病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序》 -- hwd99

本文是作者4月3日发表在美国《华尔街日报》的专栏文章。文章只字未提美国政客浪费两个多月的错误和中国的成功经验，而是分析美国在对付新冠病毒方面的无奈，宣传美国不能采取中国成功的封城经验是因为它违背美国的自由原则，却建议美国政府打破该原则，增强对社会控制；同时寻求国际帮助；加强疫苗开发等技术研究。总的来说，本文是一篇高明的意识形态文章，既给美国政府的失败寻找理由，也在政治正确原则下提出了政客所需要的加强权力的建议。

另一方面，长期以来，美国一直在寻求各种手段维护霸权，包括发展病毒武器。人为修改冠状病毒基因，将其改造为感染人的病毒，已经被美国的科学家成功实现，并发表在《自然医学》期刊上了[1]。2018年多位德法科学家在《科学》杂志上发表文章[3]，质疑美国军方提供资金支持的昆虫同盟研究计划，使用昆虫携带病毒，感染农作物，增加农作物抵抗病毒能力，是在发展病毒武器，违反《禁止生物武器公约》。虽然美国加入了《禁止生物武器公约》，但自加入后，美国一直阻止该条约的核查，无视该条约对美国发展病毒武器技术的约束。该项人工制造新冠状病毒研究，很可能是美国军方资助的，不仅发展了一种人工制造可以感染人类的冠状病毒的方法，还人工制造了一种可以感染人类的病毒，等于是一种病毒武器。长期以来，美国一直在发展生物武器，包括病毒武器[2]。从历史来看，美国曾经用天花病毒对付印第安人[4]；二战结束后，美国全面接收日本二战期间进行的细菌武器研究，并在侵朝战争期间[5]，在我国东北和朝鲜等地发动细菌战[6]。美国军方发展生物武器，包括病毒武器，可以说，在西方相关学术界是公知的[2]。

美国还建立了大量P4实验室，专门研究顶级病毒的顶级实验室，他们很可能一手掌握病毒，一手在发展解药，从而控制了人类的健康和生命安全。基辛格宣传一个崭新的时代，很可能就是暗示美国政府加大病毒疫苗技术研究，建立一个由美国控制人类安全的时代，保障美国的霸权能够延续。

参考文献

1. Menachery, V.D., et al., A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence. Nature Medicine, 2015. 21(12): p. 1508-1513.

2. Romanoff, L. Biological Weapons: A Useful and Timely Factual Overview - Global ResearchGlobal Research - Centre for Research on Globalization https://www.globalresearch.ca/biological-weapons-useful-timely-factual-overview/5702842 美国生物武器：实用而及时的概况_洞幽察微_察网 http://www.cwzg.cn/theory/202002/54955.html?bsh_bid=5478940357. Global Research 2020 2020.2.7 [cited 2020.2.14.

3. Reeves, R.G., et al., Agricultural research, or a new bioweapon system? Science：德法科学家质疑美国军方开发生物武器，违反《禁止生物武器公约》 https://user.guancha.cn/main/content?id=237828. Science, 2018.

4. 房龙著, 美国的故事. 2017: 北京时代华文书局. p. 17.

5. 孟涛, 关于朝鲜战争中美军实施细菌战的再考察. 当代中国史研究, 2013(05): p. 33-40+125.

6. 齐德学, 抗美援朝战争中的反细菌战是中国方面的造假宣传吗? 当代中国史研究, 2010(03): p. 81-89+127.

以下是原文翻译：

冠状病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序

----美国必须保护其公民免于疾病，同时开始为新时代进行紧急规划。

亨利·基辛格

Covid-19大流行的超现实气氛让我想起了在突出部战役期间，作为第84步兵师的一名年轻人我的感受。现在，就像1944年末一样，有一种早期的危险感，不是针对任何一个特定的人，而是随机袭击和破坏。但是那个遥远的时代和我们的时代有一个重要的区别。那时美国人的耐力随后被最终的国家目标所强化。现在，在一个四分五裂的国家，高效而有远见的政府是克服规模和全球范围前所未有的障碍所必需的。维持公众信任对社会团结、社会之间的关系以及国际和平与稳定至关重要。

各国团结繁荣的信念是，它们的机构能够预见灾难，阻止灾难的影响，恢复稳定。当Covid-19大流行结束后，许多国家的机构将被视为已经失败。这一判断在客观上是否公平无关紧要。事实是，冠状病毒之后，世界将不再是原来的样子。现在争论过去只会让必须做的事情变得更加困难。

冠状病毒袭击的规模和凶猛程度前所未有。它的传播是指数级的:美国病例每五天翻一倍。写这篇文章时，没有治愈的方法。医疗用品不足以应付日益增多的病例。重症监护室正处于不堪重负的边缘。检测不足以确定感染的程度，更不用说逆转其传播了。一个成功的疫苗可能需要12到18个月。

美国政府在避免直接灾难方面做得很好。最终的考验将是病毒的传播能否被阻止，然后以某种方式和规模逆转，以保持公众对美国人自我管理能力的信心。这场危机的努力，无论多么巨大和必要，都不能排除启动一个并行的规划，向后冠状病毒秩序过渡的紧迫任务。

领导人在很大程度上是在国家的基础上处理危机，但是病毒的社会瓦解效应是不分国界的。尽管对人类健康的攻击——但愿是暂时的，但它引发的政治和经济动荡可能会持续几代人。没有一个国家，甚至美国，能够在纯粹的国家努力中战胜这种病毒。解决当前的需求最终必须与全球合作愿景和计划相结合。如果我们不能同时做这两件事，我们将面临每件事中最坏的结果。

借鉴马歇尔计划和曼哈顿计划的发展，美国有义务在三个领域做出重大努力。首先，增强全球对传染病的抵御能力。医学科学的胜利，如脊髓灰质炎疫苗和天花的根除，或通过人工智能医学诊断的新兴统计学技术奇迹，已经使我们陷入危险的自满。我们需要开发新的技术和工艺来控制感染，并在大量人群中开发相应的疫苗。城市、州和地区必须始终如一地做好准备，通过储备、合作规划和在科学前沿的探索来保护人民免受流行病的侵害。

第二，努力治愈世界经济的创伤。全球领导人已经从2008年的金融危机中吸取了重要的教训。当前的经济危机更加复杂:冠状病毒释放的收缩速度和全球范围都不同于历史上任何已知的情况。必要的公共卫生措施，如社会隔离和关闭学校和企业，也加剧了经济痛苦。项目还应该寻求改善即将到来的混乱对世界上最脆弱人群的影响。

第三，捍卫自由世界秩序的原则。现代政府的创始传奇是一座被强大的统治者保护的有围墙的城市，有时是专制的，有时是仁慈的，但总是强大到足以保护人民免受外部敌人的伤害。启蒙思想家重新定义了这一概念，认为合法国家的目的是满足人民的基本需求:安全、秩序、经济福利和正义。个人无法靠自己来保护这些东西。在繁荣依赖全球贸易和人口流动的时代，这种流行病推动一种有围墙的城市的复兴，引发了一种时代错误。

世界上的民主国家需要捍卫和维持他们的启蒙价值观。从平衡权力与合法性的全球倒退，将导致社会契约在国内和国际上瓦解。然而，合法性和权力的千年问题不能与克服Covid-19瘟疫的努力同时解决。在国内政治和国际外交中，各方都需要克制。必须确定优先事项。

我们从二战的《突出部之战》进入了一个日益繁荣、人类尊严不断增强的世界。现在，我们生活在一个划时代的时期。领导人面临的历史性挑战是在建设未来的同时应对危机。失败会点燃世界。

以下是原文： 来自：http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_ba4495250102yopu.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coronavirus-pandemic-will-forever-alter-the-world-order-11585953005

The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order

by Henry A. Kissinger

The U.S. must protect its citizens from disease while starting the urgent work of planning for a new epoch.

The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.

Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done.

The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away.

The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus’s spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans’ ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.

Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus’s society-dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each.

Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains. First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.

Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable populations.

Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people.

The world’s democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.

We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.