主题：2015年-2021年全国流感报告发病死亡统计表 -- 唐家山

我们估计在所研究的5年内（2010-2015），中国每年平均发生 88100 (95% CI 84200–92000) 例流感相关的呼吸道超额死亡，对应于 8·2% (95% CI 7·9-8· 6) 呼吸系统死亡。

There are many different methods used for estimating the influenza-associated mortality. One important distinguishing factor is the use all-cause mortality compared with selected cause-specific mortality data. All-cause mortality data are, by definition, multicausal, and it is only possible to associate excess mortality to a specific underlying cause (e.g., influenza) by assessing the correlation over time with specific indicators of that specific cause. Because of this multicausality, all-cause excess mortality may overestimate the true number of deaths associated with one cause. However, during winter seasons in temperate zones, increases in all-cause mortality are often observed, and the circulation of influenza has been historically shown to be the main seasonal driver of this excess mortality, although other factors (such as extreme temperatures and other respiratory viruses) may contribute as well. Furthermore, all-cause mortality data are readily available in many countries with a short delay and can be used for weekly monitoring to inform timely risk assessments of a wide range of threats.

有许多不同的方法可用于估计流感相关死亡率。一个重要的区别因素是使用全因死亡率与选定的特定原因死亡率数据进行比较。根据定义，全因死亡率数据是多因的，只有通过评估特定原因的特定指标随时间的相关性，才能将超额死亡率与特定的根本原因（例如流感）联系起来。由于这种多重因果关系，全因超额死亡率可能会高估与一个原因相关的真实死亡人数。然而，在温带地区的冬季，经常会观察到全因死亡率的增加，而流感的传播历来被证明是导致死亡率过高的主要季节性驱动因素，尽管其他因素（如极端温度和其他呼吸道疾病）病毒也可能有所贡献。此外，在许多国家，全因死亡率数据很容易获得，而且延迟时间很短，可用于每周监测，以便及时评估各种威胁的风险。