主题：局部暴风骤雨将来 -- 胡里糊涂

How to Deal with China

如何对付中国

We’ve spent $7 trillion on forever wars. China spent $1 trillion on its Belt and Road Initiative. We lost influence and power, whereas China gained both. China’s exports to the US, Europe, and Japan are stagnating, but its exports to the Global South have doubled since you left office. China now exports more to the Global South than to all developed markets combined.

我们已经在永远的战争上花费了 7 万亿美元。中国在“一带一路”倡议上花费了1万亿美元。我们失去了影响力和权力，而中国却获得了两者。中国对美国、欧洲和日本的出口停滞不前，但自您卸任以来，中国对南半球的出口翻了一番。目前，中国对南半球国家的出口量超过了对所有发达市场的出口量总和。

A lot of Chinese exports to the Global South are indirect exports to the US: China builds, plans, and ships components to Vietnam, India, and Mexico, and they export in turn to the US. This translates into a jump in Chinese influence in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, and more US dependence on Chinese supply chains.

中国对南半球的许多出口都是间接出口到美国：中国建造、计划并向越南、印度和墨西哥运送零部件，然后这些零部件又出口到美国。这意味着中国在亚洲、欧洲、中东和拉丁美洲的影响力大幅提升，以及美国对中国供应链的依赖程度加大。

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点评：拉美说是米国后院，如果米国还有制造业，那么起码拉美作为原料产地和商品市场，两者还有一定合作，形成经济圈。现在米国不搞制造了，那和拉美的关系就成了纯粹的掠夺和被掠夺的关系，

China is gaining on us. At best, sanctions on exports of US technology to China buy time. At worst, they will backfire: Instead of keeping China dependent on our products, we have handed Chinese companies a captive domestic market for legacy chips and chip-making equipment.

中国正在追赶我们。充其量，对美国向中国出口技术的制裁可以争取时间。最坏的情况是，它们会适得其反：我们没有让中国继续依赖我们的产品，而是让中国公司拥有了传统芯片和芯片制造设备的国内市场。

We beat Russia in the Cold War by inventing the Digital Age, using NASA and the defense budget to drive breakthroughs in new technologies. We can innovate better than China. But federal support for R&D under Reagan was double its present level as a percent of GDP.

我们在冷战中通过发明数字时代击败了俄罗斯，利用美国宇航局和国防预算来推动新技术的突破。我们可以比中国更好地创新。但里根领导下的联邦对研发的支持占GDP的百分比是目前水平的两倍。

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点评：懂王，马斯克们正准备联邦大裁员呢。一个公司前景不佳都是先裁研发，国家没啥不同，裁掉教育部，nih之类的，我看是懂王要干的。

That’s why it’s critical to shift the defense budget to support new technology. To take only one example: We can’t out-produce China in missiles. The best response to China’s huge force of anti-ship missiles is directed-energy weapons (for example, lasers). But the Pentagon R&D budget for these new weapons is less than $800 million a year, or the cost of ten fighter planes.

这就是为什么转变国防预算以支持新技术至关重要。举一个例子：我们无法在导弹产量上超过中国。针对中国庞大反舰导弹力量的最佳回应是定向能武器（例如激光）。但五角大楼这些新武器的研发预算每年还不到8亿美元，相当于10架战斗机的成本。

We want to maintain the status quo over Taiwan. China won’t risk using force as long as Taiwan doesn’t move toward independence. With thousands of anti-ship missiles and hundreds of 5th-generation aircraft, China already outguns us in the South China Sea. To keep the balance of power, we need new anti-missile technology—not more sitting ducks in the form of surface ships.

我们希望维持台湾的现状。只要台湾不走向独立，中国就不会冒险使用武力。凭借数千枚反舰导弹和数百架五代机，中国在南海的火力已经超过了我们。为了保持力量平衡，我们需要新的反导弹技术，而不是更多水面舰艇形式的坐以待毙的技术。

Act at once on your proposal to combine steep tariffs on Chinese EV imports with an invitation to Chinese companies to build plants in the US. As Elon Musk well knows, China has a big lead in industrial automation, including AI applications and 5G communications.

立即就您的提议采取行动，将对中国电动汽车进口征收高额关税，同时邀请中国企业在美国建厂。埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）深知，中国在工业自动化方面拥有巨大领先优势，包括人工智能应用和 5G 通信

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点评：懂王现在吊民伐罪。懂王的民是南方红脖和北方山炮。他们需要开煤矿，采石油，他们要夺回被剥削权，绝不让机器取代人力。象港口自动化就被工会反对。他们怎么会允许搞电动车，搞自动化生产呢？

Xiaomi just opened a fully automated plant that can turn out 1,000 cars a day. No US company can make an EV with a sticker price under $10,000 like BYD’s Seagull. It’s like the 1980s when Japanese automakers had better technology than Detroit. Forcing the Japanese to build plants here helped the U.S. auto industry get up to speed.

小米刚刚开设了一家全自动工厂，每天可以生产 1000 辆汽车。没有一家美国公司能够像比亚迪的海鸥那样生产标价低于 10,000 美元的电动汽车。就像 20 世纪 80 年代一样，当时日本汽车制造商的技术比底特律更好。迫使日本人在这里建厂帮助美国汽车工业加快了步伐。

Just as we did during the Cold War, we need to harness America’s unique capacity for innovation to renew our industrial base. And if you can guide us there, Mr. President, your second administration will be remembered as a turning point in American history.

正如我们在冷战期间所做的那样，我们需要利用美国独特的创新能力来更新我们的工业基础。总统先生，如果你能引导我们到达那里，你的第二届政府将作为美国历史的转折点被人们铭记。

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点评：想得好，但是难以做到。很多东西都是相关的，数理化不过关，所谓创造就是瞎想。米国的ppt只有中国工程师能实现。而缺乏制造业，教育就不会重视数理化，培养工程师。金融能赚钱，为啥要搞苦哈哈的制造业？河里干工厂的也有吧，真想子女继续进工厂吗？