主题：【原创】全球熊市的开始：DOW大跌超过400点 -- 倥偬飞人

As our U.S. trade problems worsen, the probability that the dollar will weaken over time continues

to be high. I fervently believe in real trade – the more the better for both us and the world. We had about

$1.44 trillion of this honest-to-God trade in 2006. But the U.S. also had $.76 trillion of pseudo-trade last

year – imports for which we exchanged no goods or services. (Ponder, for a moment, how commentators

would describe the situation if our imports were $.76 trillion – a full 6% of GDP – and we had no exports.)

Making these purchases that weren’t reciprocated by sales, the U.S. necessarily transferred ownership of its

assets or IOUs to the rest of the world. Like a very wealthy but self-indulgent family, we peeled off a bit of

what we owned in order to consume more than we produced.

The U.S. can do a lot of this because we are an extraordinarily rich country that has behaved

responsibly in the past. The world is therefore willing to accept our bonds, real estate, stocks and

businesses. And we have a vast store of these to hand over.

These transfers will have consequences, however. Already the prediction I made last year about

one fall-out from our spending binge has come true: The “investment income” account of our country –

positive in every previous year since 1915 – turned negative in 2006. Foreigners now earn more on their

U.S. investments than we do on our investments abroad. In effect, we’ve used up our bank account and

turned to our credit card. And, like everyone who gets in hock, the U.S. will now experience “reverse

compounding” as we pay ever-increasing amounts of interest on interest.

I want to emphasize that even though our course is unwise, Americans will live better ten or

twenty years from now than they do today. Per-capita wealth will increase. But our citizens will also be

forced every year to ship a significant portion of their current production abroad merely to service the cost

of our huge debtor position. It won’t be pleasant to work part of each day to pay for the over-consumption

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of your ancestors. I believe that at some point in the future U.S. workers and voters will find this annual

“tribute” so onerous that there will be a severe political backlash. How that will play out in markets is

impossible to predict – but to expect a “soft landing” seems like wishful thinking.