主题：牛派大师Tobin Smith怎么说 -- 倥偬飞人
家园 房子卖的比车还便宜 英文原文在这儿
当然这些还是局部现象，美国不可能全部都只卖7000美元的房子。不过原来50万的房子只拍卖到13.5万，这说明那里的情况也是相当的恶化。
不知道那些建出来大量的房子没卖掉，变成ghost town的地方，拍卖起来是个什么样子？
家园 以前出现过这样的，但是规模没有那么大 最著名的例子就是在LA,因为LA是个摊大饼，供应无限，San Bernardino Valley在89年地产崩溃的时候，新区的房子都是半价以下拍卖，不少房子一直到1999年才升回到88年巅峰的价格，算上利息通胀，亏大了。
我们下一代就很幸福了，现在全球都是房产泡沫，从中国到美国，空置的房子一大片，照现在的人口趋势，到时候便宜房子随便挑，共产主义提早来到。
家园 莫说危邦不入，单是那边没钱赚这一条，就能把大部分中国人拒于千里
家园 牛派大师Tobin Smith怎么说 - 续 Now let's take a breath. Understand that there are at least hundreds of thousands of Americans who are facing an ugly six- to 12-month future because they got into these toxic mortgages. But, let's not try to connect the dots that aren't there. Let's not assume that this somehow infects the rest of the mortgage business, that it infects the economy, or employment.
We're currently at a 4.5% unemployment rate. Maybe we're going up to a 5% unemployment rate -- but that's tops.
The late 1980s and early 1990s is the last time we truly had a real estate recession -- right now, we have a real estate building recession. But, you know what? That means going down from 1.5 million homes to about 1.2 million. That is not a depression, that's a recession. We have pulled back about 15%-20% -- so we're back to normal.
If the medical care industry were to go down, then we'd be talking. If the technology industry were to go like it did in 2000, that would be enough to bring down the economy. This subprime business is clearly not going to do that.
So, let's not make hasty decisions, and let's not go crazy by selling all our stocks, going to cash and getting into a bunker because subprime mortgages are going to take the economy down. The math just doesn't add up.
I know I've talked to you about it before, but I think you needed to hear it again, because you're going to keep hearing nothing but bad news and more bad news. Hang in there guys, and don't let it get to you.
家园 找到一篇反驳的文章 觉着也不是很有力，没有具体数据，大概差不离的样子。这位 Smith 先生好像至少在这段文字上是一大抄手。
家园 飞兄怎么看美国这个房市？ 这位牛兄的讲法不是没有道理，但有点粗糙，特别是关于英国等地的房市，没有其他经济方面的数据。怎么没有提到日本呢？每个国家在特定时期的经济环境都不一样。这样的分析太简单了。
失业率的问题好像这里有人（飞兄？)分析过，数据有问题。
另外现在不是说 subprime 的问题在向 alt-a 转移么？谁知道到底是怎么一回事？影响有多大？
家园 美国房市规模比其他地方大多了 其他国家房市泡沫起来的时候，正好全球经济处于扩张期，老百姓购买力强，需求增加，所以有软着陆的机会。
美国除了自己，谁能托的起来？可惜泡泡吹得太大，炒房子的多，真实需求少，等到房价下跌，贷款赖账，极端的供大于求，美国人自己也托不起来了，经济还放缓了，还要衰退，房市的麻烦才刚开始，没个几年的折腾是喘不过气来的。