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主题:【文摘】在资本市赢利 听一个职业炒手的终极感悟 1 -- 脖子

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      • 家园 胡说几句哈

        脖子兄,犹如在说:看我兰花点穴手.

        而拙老师是:他强由他强,我自明月照山岗

        按拙老师的方法,资质差者如我,培养根基,慢慢做去,亦可求个强身健体,在资质相同的情况下,在某一时间段,尤其在最初,脖子兄的方法胜.然而时间段一拉长,就见出来了.

      • 家园 就是趋势跟踪吧。《趋势跟踪》的作者这几年亏死了,每年都是负的。

        http://www.stockbook.cn/php/viewthread.php?tid=47369&highlight=%C7%F7%CA%C6%B8%FA%D7%D9

        Annual Performance 10 Years

        1997 0.00%

        1998 0.00%

        1999 -1.82%

        2000 21.76%

        2001 -0.28%

        2002 47.14%

        2003 -15.84%

        2004 -4.51%

        2005 -15.01%

        2006 -10.73%

        Currency Denomination- US Dollars

        Track Record Prepared by - N/A

        2006 Monthly Return YTD Return Assets Under Mgt

        11/30/06 3.60% -10.73% 16,261,000

        10/31/06 -3.55% -13.83% 16,609,000

        09/30/06 -2.47% -10.66% 30,337,000

        08/31/06 -3.22% -8.39% 31,460,000

        07/31/06 -3.92% -5.35% 32,590,000

        06/30/06 -7.25% -1.48% 33,970,000

        Trading Description:

        DCM uses two trading systems -- the original Dunn Trading System (\\\"DTS\\\") and the Targets of Opportunity System (\\\"TOPS\\\"). DTS was first implemented in 1974 and has been modified from time to time as research indicated improvements. Its basic strategy, described below, has never changed. There are three programs traded under DTS: Standard (diversified), WMA (financial) and CWMA (currency). WMA is the only one of the DTS programs that is being offered. TOPS was developed by Dunn in 1989, as a new approach to trading in the futures markets. There are also three programs traded under TOPS: D-TOPS (diversified), F-TOPS (financial) and C-TOPS (currency). F-TOPS is the only one of the TOPS programs being offered.

        The basic trading strategy for of DCM\\\'s WMA programs is to hold continuous positions (either long or short) with the major price trend of each future in the portfolio. This approach is designed to capture a substantial fraction of the total profit potential from important changes in a future\\\'s price. DTS does not seek to predict when the next important move will occur nor when a particular future or group of futures will enter a choppy and unprofitable trading phase. The system therefore attempts to maintain a balanced and diversified risk posture for each account. This approach is expected to contain the inevitable series of small losses and whipsaws within tolerable limits and leave the accounts in a position to benefit from major price trends whenever they develop. In general terms, DTS is a technical, long-term, major trend following, reversal system. All decisions necessary to implement the DTS strategy are derived from proprietary computer programs designed by Dunn. These programs seek to identify the major trends and turning points for each future and to determine the changes required to maintain a balanced and diversified risk posture for each managed portfolio.

        The basic trading strategy underlying TOPS is to constantly monitor dynamic market parameters and to selectively buy or sell futures whenever trading opportunities are indicated. A trading opportunity in a future is signaled when its price reaches a significant level determined by TOPS. Dunn believes that these significant levels indicate that unusual market movement (either up or down) is likely to occur. Therefore, the market is entered, either long or short, and the position is held until a liquidation level is reached. The liquidation level is determined by market parameters and may be either a profit taking or a stop-loss point. Each future in the TOPS portfolio is expected to be out of the market often, awaiting the identification of potential new opportunities. TOPS is a technical, medium-term, opportunistic, trend-following system. The decisions that implement the TOPS strategy are derived from proprietary computer programs designed by Dunn. These programs perform the calculations necessary to identify price levels that Dunn considers significant in the context of a dynamic market environment. These price levels identify potentially favorable buying and selling opportunities for each future in the portfolio. The number of contracts bought or sold is based on the current value of the account and the risk associated with each future.

        From time to time, market conditions may be such that, in the opinion of Dunn, execution of trades recommended by DTS or TOPS would be difficult or involve undue risk. In these unusual instances, which Dunn estimates will affect less than 5% of the trading decisions, the computer recommendations may be modified or not taken by Dunn. In addition, the market may occasionally present unique trading opportunities (not signaled by DTS or TOPS) that Dunn may enter into, using its general risk control methodology.

        Dunn was organized in September 1974 and began managing commodity accounts in October 1974. Its main business is the management of commodity trading portfolios. It serves as general partner and trading advisor for several limited partnership commodity funds and as trading advisor for other commodity funds and for private accounts.

        03-06年的表现一直下滑,对比S&P 500,US Dollar Index,CME Cu-index,可以知道,当价格走势明朗的时候DUNN的系统可以发挥优势,一旦经历波折,就显出了单纯的价格趋势系统的弊端,也可以容易的看出,DUNN是一位长期的仓位持有者。06年下半年的表现也如此一斑,可以断定,DUNN在这几年因选错交易标的而吃了大亏。廉颇老矣。

      • 家园 【原创】在我看来老拙的价值投资没什么误区!你的方法要

        解决的问题是,你告诉我们:在猜大盘猜趋势时,猜错了怎么办?

          老拙在预测大盘时,错过不少次,但没有对实盘造成大的影响,这是用“四项基本原则”最有优势的地方。

        用别的办法或许也能挣到钱,远远跑赢大盘,但用“四项基本原则”可以安安心心、能睡着觉地挣钱,这是跟别的办法最大的不同!

        • 家园 为什么要靠猜来做决策呢?这是散户的大忌

          您是散户,进退自如,不比机构,建仓和出货都是一个缓慢的过程,一旦形成趋势,也会相当长的时间没办法回头.您有足够的时间去观察,确定了再付诸行动也不迟啊.您的资金有限,信息滞后,可以说对股价走势毫无影响力,您又何必不确定的时候就冒然行动呢?

          比如,7月6号您还不能确定调整结束,7月20号您总该确定了吧,你这时候才建仓对您的整体收益而言会有多大影响呢?6100点您没发现大盘开始调整了,跌下去,再回到6000点,您总该确定了吧.

          • 家园 这话跟没说一样!事后看反弹到6000点算是调整。。

            可有多少人在事先或当时敢肯定这是一波调整?就算敢肯定,又有多少人当时敢保证这种“肯定”是百分百正确?

            决策不就是信息非对称之下的猜吗?在没有被市场检验之前的股市决策本身就是猜,这有什么疑议吗?

            “7月6号您还不能确定调整结束,7月20号您总该确定了吧”

            WHY?难道不是很多人都不能确定吗?

              从998点以来,所有媒体专家的分析,高手的预测都跟什么都没说一样!从1300的顶,到1800的顶,到2300百的顶,到。。。直到今天。

              从放量上涨到缩量逼空,这一年半什么阵式没见过,看专家一波一波地数浪,数到最后数不下去了,找个辙又重新开始。。。

              所以面对大盘不要指望做对什么!因为,自认为能看对大盘短线趋势的被证明是不可信的。我更喜欢的是:股市证明,人是经常要犯错误的,但我清楚,犯了错误后知道怎么办!这一点老拙能做到,你做不到。老拙能做到,是因为老拙对股市内在价值有更深刻的认识。

              

        • 家园 有道理,脖子兄要补充纠错机制,如果接连猜错几次,

          信心就会受损!

      • 家园 四项基本原则在abc阶段都有用

        脖子兄所举例的abc阶段,不管基于对大势的判断正确与否,只要出手买股票,老拙的四项基本原则就可以保证投资的安全和收益。

        安全:即使大势判断失误,被套心理不慌,趋势反转的时候,可能是最早解套的。

        收益:如果判断正确,高于基金或者指数的收益目前看来是可以保证的。

        • 家园 您的标题说对了,内容却偏离了方向

          四项基本原则在abc阶段都有用,这个认识是对的.也就是说四项基本原则只是一个工具,您需要用的时候就拿出来用,为了安全也好,收益也好.这是您的自由.但同时也有其他好多工具,用不用也在你.

          我说的格子组理论的结构性错误,主要把这个微观的工具放到了决策的顶层,一步到位指挥了全局.也就是说,造成的后果是在大盘走向不确定的时候,还在根据四项基本原则针对个股考虑还有多少涨幅没拿到手.

      • 家园 脖子,你论点基础是大家都能持到最后,问题是很多人,比如我

        后来都没敢满仓,我也是看了老拙的文章,再加上自己的进步,后来才又满仓的。当然,看了你的文章后,溜了一些。因此,老拙的四项基本原则可能是正确持有的方法之一。当然,你的趋势分析可能也行。这个没有一定之规的。

      • 家园 你这和我高拋低吸60天赚100%以后的心态类似

        年初我玩豫光金铅,全仓扔一次买一次就增加100股,连做成7次。股价升了60%,盈利却是100%。然后我就觉得高拋低吸是王道了,可以获利远超过平均利润。你猜对大盘,猜对版块,100天获利100%,我不认为你比我连续做高拋低吸更有可复制性。

        现在我认为,连续高拋低吸的做法是不正确的撞大运。在你猜错大盘、选错板块以后,说不定你的主意也会变。如果有人能连续猜对大盘的中期走势,并选对热门板块,这是一个超级股神,两年获利100倍会和玩一样简单。

        • 家园 于方法而言,对就是对,错就是错,和发现方法的心态又有何关?

          我拿自己的操作来说事,本意无非是基于我是一个新手的前提,来辅助证明这个操作思维的有效性.同时也给其他同为新人的河友一个参考.

          我的的确确是一个新人,炒股也就半年,到现在为止技术分析也只懂有限几个名词,财务报表基本不会看,更别说量化决策了.但是我采用了有效的方法,也就是从格子组学到的优中选优的原则配合我自己的策略来加工信息.能力所限,选不到最优,一般的优也够了.就好象做一个企业,生产不懂,财务报表自己也不会做,这都没关系,知道什么是重点就行了,然后用了该用的人,一样的蒸蒸日上.这就是策略的作用,对不对?炒股和做事一样,宏观面的决策第一,每个微观面的决策都要服从上一及,总体策略才有效.于此而言,格子组把最微观面的个股决策放到第一位,先不理你四项基本基本原则正确与否,这个产生决策的理论结构不合理是显而易见的,这可以说是常识.你说呢?

          另外,我就不明白,为什么重大决策的依据要靠猜呢?

          7月6号之前对大盘的走向,任何的预期都是猜,建仓可以说都是在赌,而7月6号之后,结合国家的基本面,跌不下去就会升,这个道理不懂炒股也该明白呀.就算你不肯定,到了7月20号总该确认了吧,这时建仓也不迟啊.大盘走到9月27号,该调整不调整,反而往上冲,升不动了就会暴跌,这也是基本规律啊.

          包括现在的走势而言,谁也无法确定这个调整会到什么时候,最后转化成什么趋势.于决策而言,猜猜无所谓,但是作为依据用于决策就很可怕.我会关注这个调整的进行,不到趋势明确绝对不会大规模建仓.小仓位玩玩练手就无所谓.大盘是系统性风险,重中之中.你凭什么可以确信大盘不会走个半年的熊市,做为整体上的调整,毕竟已经升了6倍了.令人遗憾的是,格子组的总体战略居然还是立足于个股分析做决策,仅仅根据四项基本原则来考虑卖不卖,以后会涨到多少.我的建议是:卖.涨也卖,跌也卖,卖光为止.等大盘走好了,跌稳了,再考虑接不接回来.或者会有更好的股票呢?请陈大细思量之

          最后,也请陈大批评指教的时候,没必要考虑我写帖子的动机和心态.你就当是有人送了一幅蔡京的字画给你,蔡京是个白脸大奸臣并不重要,重要的是如果这幅画值钱,您就收下.谢谢指教


          本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
        • 家园 脖子的弱点就是这个

          对趋势的把握,对下一轮热点的把握是很难的,猜中了固然好,猜错了怎么办?老拙的价值投资,在牛市中可以获得很好的收益,虽然各个周期时收益并不一定高。

          我以前也曾经想,既然股票会上下波动,那我在高点卖出,买入另一只进入上升通道的股票。然后再在高点买出,这样不是收益可以更高,但问题时,高点和股票进入上升通道很难判断,尤其是在风险比较大的现在。

          脖子兄的话很有道理,但是对能力要求太高。

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