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主题:【原创】浅议美国的救市(上) -- 葡萄

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    • 家园 lol

      To the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate:

      As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:

      1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.

      2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.

      3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, Americas dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.

      For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.

      Signed

      Acemoglu Daron (Massachussets Institute of Technology)

      Adler Michael (Columbia University)

      Admati Anat R. (Stanford University)

      Alvarez Fernando (University of Chicago)

      Andersen Torben (Northwestern University)

      Beim David (Columbia University)

      Berk Jonathan (Stanford University)

      Bisin Alberto (New York University)

      Boldrin Michele (Washington University)

      Buera Francisco J.(UCLA)

      Cassar Gavin (University of Pennsylvania)

      Chaney Thomas (University of Chicago)

      Chauvin Keith W. (University of Kansas)

      Chintagunta Pradeep K. (University of Chicago)

      Christiano Lawrence J. (Northwestern University)

      Cochrane John (University of Chicago)

      Coleman John (Duke University)

      Constantinides George M. (University of Chicago)

      Crain Robert (UC Berkeley)

      De Marzo Peter (Stanford University)

      Dubé Jean-Pierre H. (University of Chicago)

      Edlin Aaron (UC Berkeley)

      Ely Jeffrey (Northwestern University)

      Faulhaber Gerald (University of Pennsylvania)

      Fox Jeremy T. (University of Chicago)

      Fuchs William (University of Chicago)

      Gao Paul (Notre Dame University)

      Garicano Luis (University of Chicago)

      Gerakos Joseph J. (University of Chicago)

      Gibbs Michael (University of Chicago)

      Goettler Ron (University of Chicago)

      Goldin Claudia (Harvard University)

      Guadalupe Maria (Columbia University)

      Hansen Lars (University of Chicago)

      Harris Milton (University of Chicago)

      Hart Oliver (Harvard University)

      Hazlett Thomas W. (George Mason University)

      Heaton John (University of Chicago)

      Heckman James (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)

      Henisz, Witold (University of Pennsylvania)

      Hertzberg Andrew (Columbia University)

      Hite Gailen (Columbia University)

      Hitsch Günter J. (University of Chicago)

      Hodrick Robert J. (Columbia University)

      Hopenhayn Hugo (UCLA)

      Hurst Erik (University of Chicago)

      Israel Ronen (London Business School)

      Jaffee Dwight M. (UC Berkeley)

      Jagannathan Ravi (Northwestern University)

      Jenter Dirk (Stanford University)

      Jones Charles M. (Columbia Business School)

      Kaboski Joseph P. (Ohio State University)

      Kaplan Ethan (Stockholm University)

      Karolyi, Andrew (Ohio State University)

      Kashyap Anil (University of Chicago)

      Ketkar Suhas L (Vanderbilt University)

      Kiesling Lynne (Northwestern University)

      Koch Paul (University of Kansas)

      Kocherlakota Narayana (University of Minnesota)

      Koijen Ralph S.J. (University of Chicago)

      Kondo Jiro (Northwestern University)

      Korteweg Arthur (Stanford University)

      Kortum Samuel (University of Chicago)

      Krueger Dirk (University of Pennsylvania)

      Lee Lung-fei (Ohio State University)

      Leuz Christian (University of Chicago)

      Levine David I.(UC Berkeley)

      Levine David K.(Washington University)

      Linnainmaa Juhani (University of Chicago)

      Manski Charles F. (Northwestern University)

      Martin Ian (Stanford University)

      Mayer Christopher (Columbia University)

      McDonald Robert (Northwestern University)

      Meadow Scott F. (University of Chicago)

      Mian Atif (University of Chicago)

      Middlebrook Art (University of Chicago)

      Miguel Edward (UC Berkeley)

      Miravete Eugenio J. (University of Texas at Austin)

      Miron Jeffrey (Harvard University)

      Moro Andrea (Vanderbilt University)

      Morse Adair (University of Chicago)

      Mortimer Julie Holland (Harvard University)

      Nevo Aviv (Northwestern University)

      Ohanian Lee (UCLA)

      Pagliari Joseph (University of Chicago)

      Papanikolaou Dimitris (Northwestern University)

      Peltzman Sam (University of Chicago)

      Perri Fabrizio (University of Minnesota)

      Phelan Christopher (University of Minnesota)

      Piazzesi Monika (Stanford University)

      Piskorski Tomasz (Columbia University)

      Reagan Patricia (Ohio State University)

      Reich Michael (UC Berkeley)

      Reuben Ernesto (Northwestern University)

      Roberts Michael (University of Pennsylvania)

      Rogers Michele (Northwestern University)

      Ruud Paul (Vassar College)

      Safford Sean (University of Chicago)

      Sandbu Martin E. (University of Pennsylvania)

      Sapienza Paola (Northwestern University)

      Scharfstein David (Harvard University)

      Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)

      Shimer Robert (University of Chicago)

      Siegel Ron (Northwestern University)

      Sorensen Morten (Columbia University)

      Spiegel Matthew (Yale University)

      Stevenson Betsey (University of Pennsylvania)

      Stokey Nancy (University of Chicago)

      Strahan Philip (Boston College)

      Strebulaev Ilya (Stanford University)

      Sufi Amir (University of Chicago)

      Thompson Tim (Northwestern University)

      Tschoegl Adrian E. (University of Pennsylvania)

      Uhlig Harald (University of Chicago)

      Ulrich, Maxim (Columbia University)

      Van Buskirk Andrew (University of Chicago)

      Veronesi Pietro (University of Chicago)

      Vissing-Jorgensen Annette (Northwestern University)

      Weill Pierre-Olivier (UCLA)

      Witte Mark (Northwestern University)

      Wolfers Justin (University of Pennsylvania)

      Zingales Luigi (University of Chicago)

      • lol
        家园 真正的一场争夺拯救者的扮演者的游戏开始了

        美参议院通过巨额减税法案 2000万纳税人或受益

        http://money.163.com/08/0924/11/4MJRMO5M00251RJ2.html

        *   美参议院周二(23日)通过了一项巨额减税一揽子计划,通过这项法案,美国将有超过2000万纳税人将免受替代最低税的冲击。

        和讯消息 据美国MSNBC网站9月24日报道,美参议院周二(23日)通过了一项巨额减税一揽子计划,通过这项法案,美国将有超过2000万纳税人将免受替代最低税(Alternative Minimum Tax,AMT)的冲击。

        注:不过这个法案的批准也许暗示着布什拯救计划的最后结局。

    • 家园 日本大财团出手,住友出资GS20亿,三菱最高取得20%

      住友出资GS20亿,野村购买雷曼欧洲部门,三菱UFJ最高取得大摩20%股权。

      和各位所想的不同,我觉得日本企业是相对保守的。这次时机也选得很好,众所周知7000亿救市资金救的主要是上面两家。

      反倒是主权基金,危机之前太乐观大举杀入,危机之中太悲观畏首畏尾。

      中投占摩根9.9%但并不想派董事,而这次三菱UFJ不仅可能成为最大股东而且还可以派驻至少一名董事进入董事会。而整笔投资最多大约耗资85亿,投资效率高下立见分晓。

      • 家园 要是这次是膏药国埋单的话,那么中美就基本上实现了划太平洋

        其实,膏药国心理也很明白,从小犬到福田,一直在为摆脱而疯狂努力,无奈啊!麻绳一上来,这个难过啊。有人说,这是膏药们决定东倒还是西歪的强大推动力。此次埋巨单,东亚一体化膏药国就彻底失去了领导权的争夺能力,难怪开始公开说与中韩的经济发展捆绑了。

        不过现在看,危机远远没有过去,已经有人在吹喇叭了:

        金融风暴削弱美经济 中国GDP将提早13年超美国

        香港文汇报 2008-09-23

        信贷危机卷起华尔街金融海啸,削弱了美国在国际间的经济影响力。哈佛大学历史教授弗格森在《华盛顿邮报》撰文,指出这场危机对美国经济的打击,大大削减了美国称霸全球这个论调的可信性。他认为美国转弱,中国经济有望于不足20年,甚至更短时间内,便能超越美国。

           美国财政部先后接管"两房"和全美最大型保险集团美国国际集团(AIG),将之国有化,套用国际著名大炒家索罗斯的话,"市场基本主义"就此步向末路,随之而来的是全球权力洗牌。

        英媒:美国正失去控制权 金融权力向中国转移

        英国《每日邮报》9月21日文章,原题:中国开始统治世界的这一周

        正如第一次世界大战吹散了一个由欧洲帝国支配的世界,过去9天金融市场的疯狂可能也标志着以美国为首的发达国家经济体失去对世界经济及未来的控制权。这场危机正让华尔街的力量平衡按中国喜欢的方式转移。

        全世界都感到了金融危机的猛烈震动。英国、美国、澳大利亚、新西兰、爱尔兰和其他国家已经“嗜债成瘾”。这些钱通常从同样的国家借出,如卖给我们产品的中国。有批评人士说,现在的盎格鲁———撒克逊经济体已成为放荡的贵族,只有当裁缝们愿意提供信贷时,他们才能穿上光鲜亮丽的衣服。但在某些时刻,裁缝们要求获得现金。

        最终,由于我们欠下这么多钱,权力开始从我们手中滑向我们的债权人。(作者阿特金森)

        怎么看怎么觉得与80年代忽悠膏药国那么象啊!当年美国收拾膏药国,就是先让自己的股市暴跌,然后忽悠+强迫买单,膏药果然上当,自信心无限膨胀,又是本币升值,又是在美国投资救市,结果惨了,现在都缓不过来。中国金融基础并没有跟上,虽然进度很快,但与现实有很大差距。清醒地认识自己,清楚看到自身的问题,不急燥,恐怕是所有国民今后一个需要思考的问题。

      • 家园 意料之中的事情

        每次美国遇到危机都要日本掏腰包,至于日本能否从中得利就很难说了。东南亚金融危机让日本的外汇储备少了一半,最后美国都受不了要日元不要贬值的时候日本反而挺不住了。

        日本现在是在中美两国间脚踩两只船,哪条船的兴与废都会带着日本左右摇晃,要么跟着涨,要么跟着跌。

        • 家园 记得

          一个长期和日本人做生意的朋友和我说过日本人做生意有这样一个特点:每次生意只考虑单次交易的利益最大化,而不考虑其他。

          • 记得
            家园 过于关注细节就没有系统大局观的民族性格所至

            á

        • 家园 是日本的制度有问题,还是

          真让驻日美军抓住命门了,日本怎么老当美国的马仔呢?德国不是也是战败国么?也驻军,咋就差别那么大呢?

          • 家园 欧洲好歹有个欧盟

            历史上欧洲各国战争不少,可为什么打仗呢?还不是因为利益攸关。因为利益能打就能和。日本身边只有同中国合作才有可能顶住美国的压力,不过这个大块头个头太大,真合作起来日本只能当小弟。不谈历史恩怨,这个也足够让日本踌躇一阵子了。

            看看这次怎么收场吧,日本再被捞一票是必然的,得利的是中国还是美国倒是走着瞧。平心而论,日本战后的发展本来就有美国扶植的因素在内,人家能扶你,自然就能刮你,不奇怪。

          • 家园 日本从宪法到制度都是美国设计的
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