主题：挑头触碰美帝的“逆鳞”，中国所图何为？ -- 散仙在飞

俺的看法一直以来与你不同，俺是觉得，

中美之间目前的国家战略目标有着根本性的矛盾和冲突，

--Agree. Both aspire to 争霸 and both do not want to be No. 2 in the long run.

除非其中一方进行重大调整（俺且不用“退让”这个词），

--Aspiration depends on actual military and economic strength. At this stage, USD GDP is still 3x of China's GDP. US still controls much more resources globally than China and has many Anglo-Saxon allies (Aussies, UK, Ireland, whole Northern European nations). Most importantly, US controls the global oil tank route. China will be crazy to challenge America directly.

这种矛盾只会愈演愈烈，

--You are too optimistic. Financial crisis hit America and it will only spare China? Do you check the balance sheet of major Chinese banks?

An internally divided China with ethnic division, class division, regional economic disparity. The long term trend might be up, but who knows what will happen in the next 10 years? Did anybody predict the eruption of Cultural Revolution?

Another challenge is the population composition. The population bonus for China will end around 2020. Big cities in China have been graying as fast as many European cities. Are ambitious Chinese ready for this challenge?

America will have 10 years of inflation and economic stagnation. China will be perfectly immune in this global economy?

兄提出中国应该“与美国四柱不冲突缠纽，双文明科技经济引擎，拉动世界经济复苏”

但正所谓天要下雨，娘要嫁人，且不说当今世界经济的危局始作俑者恰恰是美国，

--This credit expansion involved all nations. All central banks pursued easy credit policy for economic growth. Eastern European bubble was created by themselves, not by US. China has the currency peg+WTO, which effectively bonds itself to US completely.

有些事情不是中国单方面的一厢情愿或者努力可以决定的，

--Agree. US will need a major crisis to readjust its own global status. Such crisis can only come from a huge war failure or internal political turmoil. At least I will not see the 2nd factor in my lifetime, given the political stamina of its electoral system. 1st one is not possible since Bush was gone.

I vision that China will have to stay as No.2, at least for next 40 years,--the best scenario is to replace Europe's current status and push America to fight with Europe.

EU is already America's equivalent in terms of economic strength. Its weakness lies in political inability and military strength. Keep in mind, EU has the reservoir of talents to compete with America in every field. Reserve of talents are very important in this global competition. EU has many first-class universities, skilled labor, language strength and global knowledge about different regions (anyway, many are their former colonies).

Keep in mind, Lawrence of Arabia was a British officer with excellent Arabic language skill and Mid-east history expert. He was trained at Oxford.

My question: does China has this kind of reservoir of talents? Does China have global control/soft power beyond its own border(many Asian nations actually do not welcome a rising China at all)? Without the buildup of this talent pool, could you really replace America as No.1?

America built up this pool with the blessing of WWII. Many Europeans wanted to pursue a better life/higher pay and they fled Europe and settled down in America. US also has the smart system of greencard to retain them. Does China has that related system now? Does China has a blessing of war to siphon off American/European talents? --with our current slave-rate pays or poor law enforcement system?

If rich Chinese do not feel safe in their homeland, how can you expect foreign talents to move here and sell their expertise to you so that you can really be No.1?

On the other sides, how many Chinese diplomats can fluently speak English/French/German/Spanish in each of their assigned nation? I am in North America and met senior diplomats of China in both US and Canada. Put it politely: I am NOT impressed at all. Do you rely on this pool of "domestic talents" to construct a new global system???

In sum, point 1: Empire was not built over 10 years or even 20 years, in Rome, in Britain, in America. Never underestimate the importance of talents, esp., domestically trained ones.

Point 2. IT IS EASIER TO DESTROY AN OLD WORLD ORDER, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO BUILD UP A BETTER GLOBAL ORDER WITH YOUR OWN NATION AT THE CENTER.

Europeans will simply ask this question: in this new China-led system, will our life better or much better than under the America-led global system? IF CHINESE GOVERNMENT TREATS THEIR OWN CITIZENS LIKE SHIT, WHY SHOULD YOU EXPECT THEM TO TREAT YOU MUCH BETTER??? They made choice based on their own interests calculation. Without solid support of Europe, China will not be able to win the fight against US.

美国一直以来的政策，尤其是近来的一系列铤而走险般的举动说明，

即使中国主观上不想与它起冲突，不改变中国已经对它构成了最大的潜在威胁的事实，不改变中国已经触及到在它的核心既得利益的事实，

这是中国的国家规模，文化传统，一直以来的复兴梦想等等所共同决定的，

—— 除非中国放弃自己立国以来的原则和自己的梦想，成为一个象日本那样的“非正常国家”，甚至放弃自身的文化传统，

利益之下，赶尽杀绝 这是深植于西方文化内核的特质之一，

--winner take-all. Nothing strange. But Anglo-Saxons are also rational--they know that if they can not eliminate you, they will negotiate and give you rights and bond you with contractal obligations.

Wait for the next 40 years. China needs time to build up its internal political system and economic strength. And America needs long time to decline.

IN 2050, maybe we will truly be ready to discuss the topic of 争霸. China still has LONG LONG WAY to go. Look at its GDP per capita and its alarming disparity of wealth distribution, I think China is closer to Latin American than to America.

PS:俺觉得周小川同志这次的SDR表态也有组织上的意思，

--yes.

而且SDR是一招虚棋，TG可能根本就不指望能成事。但是小川嚷这一下，就像鼻屎大统领嚷的那一嗓子一样，实质上不足为害，但心理上和气势上给对阵双方的影响很大（所以俺以为对李光耀，TG内心必深恨之）。虽然美系死党小川（一位德国前领导人对周的评语）自己内心未必希望如此。