主题：观察：Google事件背后是怎样的博弈？ -- SkyWalkerJ

這回是老二歐洲得利了

100% agree with your post. Next 10 years will be interesting.

2009 is deja vu of 1929 and America will resort to the same tactic again.

1929's worldwide problem is overcapacity (relatively insufficient effective demand). America destroyed some of its own overcapacity through 1929-1931 recession and outside world destroyed almost all of their capacity through WWII.

American came into today's social structure(a big middle class as the pilar of a civilized society) due to various macro factors: global demand for American manufactured goods, SHUTOFF OF GLOBAL immigration and international trade, global trade war. At the same time, it had the right person (a left-lean aristcratic FDR with superior political skills) as the president.

First, there was no international product competition in US market to squeeze the margin/price.

Second, there was EXTREME shortgage of labor after 1939.Union was not allowed until 1932.

Then easily US labor rate shoot above the roof and American living standards climbed quickly--capitalists were NOT unhappy at all because there was global war demand for their manufactured goods WITH NO PRICING PRESSURE and they had no choice but to employ ONLY American labor (that's why African Americans moved from impoverished south into industrialized North and many women FOR THE FIRST TIME IN US HISTORY, massively participated in the economy).

Check this out-- http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayCover.cfm?url=/images/20100102/20100102issuecovUS400.jpg

that's how US came into a society dominated by the mid-class. America reached an ideal social structure MOSTLY THROUGH SELF-REFORM AND PURE LUCK.

That favorable social structure was maintained until late 1990s since the cold war kept away the flood of super-cheap labor supply from former communist block (China included).

The free international trade, a GDP-obsessed Chinese export economy led to explosive growth in global production capacity (go to Walmart/dollar store to see the power of this revolution), but there is no catch-up in terms of effective demand from China (even the limited demand was wasted on real estate SPECULATION).

China HAS BEEN SQUEEZING MARKET SHARE FROM BOTH DEVELOPED WORLD AS WELL AS SOME OF ITS DEVELOPING NATION COMPETITORS BETWEEN 2001-2007.

Below is the faked conversation between G-2:

America: we thoughT free-trade/free-capital movement will allow America to easily rip off others. But now you, China, looks like a cancer in this America-led Global Operating System(Trade&Financial System): you siphon off jobs, but did not create effective demands for all of us to create new domestic jobs. You must increase your exchange rate to reduce your product competitiveness and stimulate your domestic demand for ALL OF US so that we can export to your market(US and Europe).

Anyway, currency appreciation happened for Germany/France/UK/Japan for 1970s and Taiwan/Korea in 1980s. Why cann't you do it so that the USD-TreasuryNote-Brettonwoods system can get a SECOND SYSTEM Update (just like the Windows XP SP2 update and the Matrix update in Matrix III) to avoid a system disruption (of American dominance)?

China: I have another wave of young men forthcoming into the labor force. I do not care about ANY WELFARE of my compatriots or your voters. I need more new jobs to diffuse social intension and potential turmoil. ANYWAY, KEEPING POWER/CONTROL is what I care. As to the dirty cheap labor rate/lack of labor protection/environmental disaster and social welfare in CN, forget about THEM. Improvment Will NOT happen for the next 10 years. BTW, your capitalists love that in China with more money flooding in...why shall I change?

If I allow RMB to appreciate, I am sure to be Japan V2 given my deeply flawed financial system... I am NO idiot! ^-^

How about I keep on lending you billions (buying treasury bills) and you shut up your f* mouth.

America: okay okay, can we have a G2 cooperation to defeat the European global-warming attack?～

China: sure, we have deal. Business is business.

One month later, Christmas is over. White House got another bleak update.

America: F*ck, unemployment is so high and jobs are so scarce. Chinese refuse to increase exchange rate(create more import demand and reduce supply) or make domestic changes to unleash consumer demands. The only thing they want is to dump unemployment to the overseas market.

Our companies are squeezed on profit margin thus have more domestic layoff pressure, while at the same time undercut in labor costs by ShanZhai production capacity.

Hilary: we should cut off the trade/capital flow/job flow to China by disrupting the current free trade system. NOW it is the only solution given that technology revolution WILL NOT HAPPEN TO CREATE EFFECTIVE DEMAND IN YOUR 4-YEAR TERM. Chinese demand will be a joke for the next 10 years. BTw, mid-year congress election is coming, democrats will lose house if job situation keeps on deteriorating...

Keep in mind: the rule about the war on job/trade is that... it is NOT about the war on job. It is about political integrity, principle and the war on "freedom of CHINESE PEOPLE's speech", even though it is the voters in AMERICA that truly determine my political prospect.

Obama: ya, 無毒不丈夫、老子天生就是玩陰的料, it is Democrats' tradition, isn't it, darling... Anyway, Cooperhagen is dead...hahaha.

Then Taiwan suddenly got the post-Christmas "gift" and Google finally could do what it wants in the past.

China: %$#&^% f**&&^%

Start of the new cold war. Switch from peaceful WinXP operating system to the war-obsessed unstable/unpredictable Linux system...

In sum: -ism is fake, vote is the key. Principle is a joke, but economy is the reason... Friend is not permanent and adversary is not perpetual, only vote and interests are permanent and perpetual.