主题：【原创】茗谈（三十二） -- 本嘉明
家园 美和中东的结合是有条件的，现在这些条件正在消失。 美国和中东的中上层结合，不仅仅靠武力，还包括利益输出。美国是中东石油的最大买家，也是世界石油的最大买家，所谓店大欺客，客大欺店。美国这个带枪顾客，多项优势累加起来就是成了绝对优势。
但是现在中国石油用量已经超过美国，等中国用5~10时间，把汽车销量弄到3500万台的时候，中国的石油用量会是美国的一倍，这是tg就是成为中东石油的最大买家。随着中国军力的发展，等到那个时候，中国肯定不会用美元来买全部的石油的，当然为了和平，tg还是用一些美元的。这时美国对中东的中上层的控制能力就会土崩瓦解了。自己不是利益输出方，还梦想着控制中东，基本不可能了。
而这个大前提是中东剧变的物质基础。
奥巴马没有能力扭转这个物质基础的趋势，做什么还是不做什么，又能怎么样呢。
美国出兵镇压或是支持镇压，中东就是当年的匈牙利，再多挺几年的尸；不镇压，就是明确目标准备撤退。从长远看，还是明确目标，准备撤退比较现实。中东栽个大跟头，也比较有利于兄弟连统一思想。
家园 美国不是中东石油的最大进口国 Energy Information Administration
EIA是美国能源部下属机构，上面这个链接里有一些xls文件，清楚的给出了OECD国家（通俗的说，这个词代表发达资本主义世界）从世界各地进口石油的数量。
从表中可以看出，欧洲进口中东石油比美国高，日本是美国两倍有余，甚至南韩都比美国高。
从美国自己的角度看，最高的来源也是非洲国家，其次才是中东。来自非洲、中东、南美的石油数量大约是9比8比6，来自中东的石油占美国总进口量的三分之一强。
美军中央司令部，这绳套其实是套在小弟脖子上的。
家园 Al Gore的書《Assault On Reason裡 說，USA石油進口，按數量大小排：
1，大家拿
2，黑西哥
3，沙弟
4，委內瑞拉
四大有三個在周邊。
Where Does All the Oil Come From?
The United States and Oil Imports - Facts and Figures
http://www.quoteoil.com/oil-imports.html
Over the course of the past few years, a great deal of media attention has focused on the not only the cost of oil but the availability of oil. Citizens of different countries around the world, including those in the United States, have become increasingly concerned about the cost and availability of fuel oil.
With that in mind, many people have expressed concern about:
the growing dependence of the United States on oil imports
the stability of the major oil producing nations
the remaining proven oil reserves still existing on the planet
In point of fact, the United States has become ever more dependent upon imported or foreign oil. A mere thirty years ago, 28% of the oil consumed in the United States was imported. Today nearly 60% of the oil utilized and consumed in the United States is imported from other countries.
Turning to the stability of the nations from which the U.S. imports oil, a good share of imported oil does come from nations that have fairly stable political situations. However, as will be discussed shortly, the largest amount of oil reserves are located in the Middle East -- one o fthe most volatile regions of the world. Most people are surprised to learn that the country from which the United States imports the greatest amount of oil is Canada. In recent years, the United States has imported approximately 200 million barrels of crude oil annually from Canada.
Oil imports into the United States from Saudi Arabia come in at second place with about 160 million barrels of crude oil annually from the Kingdom. The United States imports about the same amount of oil from Mexico as it does from Saudi Arabia on an annual basis. Other countries from which the United States imports oil are: Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq, the United Kingdom, Norway, Angola, Algeria and Colombia.
Of course, oil is a limited resource. The bulk of proven, remaining oil reserves in the world today are located in the Middle East. In the Middle East there are an estimated 727 billion barrels of oil in reserve. The amount of oil in the Middle East far outstrips what is available anywhere else on Earth. For example, the known reserves in Central and South America are an estimated 99 billion barrels, in Africa an estimated 87 billion barrels, in the nations of the former Soviet Union an estimated 78 billion barrels and in Western Europe and China there is an estimated 18 billion barrels in each location. Rounding out the list is Mexico with an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil in reserve and India with an estimated 5 billion barrels of oil in reserve.
Oil, coal and natural gas account for more than 85% of the energy consumed in the United States at this point in time. Oil accounts for nearly 40% of all energy utilized in the United States in this day and age.
Top 7 suppliers of oil to the US
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/100726/top-7-us-oil-importers
Really big oil: Where does the US get its crude? Here's what you need to know.
News DeskJuly 28, 2010 05:42
Updated July 30, 2010 08:18
The United States consumes more oil than any other country in the world: 18.7 million barrels of oil per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) short-term energy outlook.
美国在世界上比其他国家消耗更多油：
根据美国能量信息Administration' s (EIA)短期能量展望-----每天1870万油桶。要满足那需求，美国每天进口900--1200万桶。
To satisfy that demand, the United States imports 9 to 12 million barrels of oil per day.
要满足那需求，美国每天进口900--1200万桶。
The top seven countries on the following list account for more than $140 billion worth of oil every year:
為保證消費需求，以下七国家每年供應USA超过价值$1400亿美元的油：
1. Canada
Canada reigns as the United States' leading oil supplier, exporting some 707,316,000 barrels of oil per year (1,938,000 barrels per day) — a whopping 99 percent of its annual oil exports, according to the EIA.
根据EIA報告：加拿大王朝作为美国主要供油國，每年出口大约707,316,000个油桶(每天1,938,000桶) -相當它的每年石油出口總數的的99%。
Canada's exports to the United States are worth more than $37 billion and account for 16 percent of the total trade between the two countries, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's Foreign Trade Statistics. Canada holds the second largest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia. And 95 percent of this oil is in sand deposits in Alberta, which makes the oil extraction process difficult.
Canada' 向美国向美国出口超过$370亿的石油，并且占二个国家之间的总贸易量的16%，---來自美国人口调查Bureau' s外贸统计數字。 加拿大擁有僅次於沙特阿拉伯的世界的第二大石油储备。 并且95%的油在油砂裡，使油萃取过程變得困难。
剩下的暫時沒空翻，自己看吧。
2. Mexico
Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico. (Eunice Adorno/AFP/Getty Images)
Mexico sends more than 400 million barrels of oil per year (or 1,096,000 barrels per day) to the U.S., according to the EIA. In 2009, that flow was worth over $22 billion.
Since Mexico's oil wells were nationalized in 1938, the country's oil industry operates under the control of PEMEX, the second largest oil company in the world.3. Saudi Arabia
The Shaybah mega-project, above, is the first oilfield development in Saudi Arabia's vast al-Rub al-Khali desert, some 500 miles southeast of the oil center of Dhahran.(Bilal Qabalan/AFP/Getty Images)Saudi Arabia sends 360,934,000 barrels of oil per year (989,000 barrels per day), 20 percent of its total oil exports, to the United States, according to the EIA. Saudia Arabia’s economy is fueled by oil, which accounts for 90 percent of the kingdom's export revenues and 45 percent of its GDP, according to the CIA World Factbook.
4. Venezuela
A Venezuelan flag is displayed on a oil refinery in the Venezuelan city of Moron on April 30, 2009. (Thomas Coex/AFP/Getty Images)
Venezuela sends the United States 352,278,000 barrels of oil per year (965,000 barrels per day), according to the EIA. The Venezuelan economy is heavily reliant on oil as it accounts for 90 percent of the country's export revenue and 30 percent of the country's GDP, according to the World Factbook. In May 2009, following its socialist policies, Venezuela's state oil company Petroleoes de Venezuela took over private companies operating in the east of the country, increasing the total number of nationalized oil companies to 74.
Earlier this month, President Hugo Chavez stated that his government would stop all oil exports to the United States if Washington's ally, Colombia, attacks Venezuela.
5. Nigeria
Fighters with the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) raise their riffles to celebrate news of a successful operation against the Nigerian army in the Niger Delta on Sept. 17, 2008. (Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty Images)
Nigeria sells 40 percent of its huge oil supply to the United States. Nigeria exports 281,291,000 barrels per year (771,000 barrels per day) to the United States, according to the EIA. But Nigeria is feeling the full brunt of the "oil curse." The vast earnings from oil have not translated into substantial improvements for ordinary Nigerians. People living in the oil-producing Niger Delta area, in particular, are very poor and the environment has been degraded by oil drilling.
Beginning in 2006, this reality led rebel groups groups to violently protest against the oil pipelines. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta attacked and kidnapped foreign oil workers. The rebel insurrection are blamed for causing Nigeria's oil production to drop by as much as 20 percent. Furthermore, Nigeria has experienced 2,400 oil spills since 2006, decreasing the industry’s efficiency, according to Reuters.
6. Angola
Oil platform situated off Angola's coast. (Marcel Mochet/AFP/Getty Images)
Angola exports 163,790,000 of barrels of oil per year (449,000 barrels per day) to the United States, worth around $9 billion in 2009, according to the EIA. In recognition of its huge oil production, Angola is now the chair of OPEC.
In May 2008, due to unrest in Nigeria, Angola surpassed Nigeria as the largest oil producer in Africa. The majority of Angola's wells are located offshore in the Atlantic Ocean due to limited onshore exploration from 1975 to
大流氓很懂得保護自己的石油安全。
家园 油价按照热值来算是煤炭的4倍多 本身就是虚高，是美国幕后操盘的后果， 阿拉伯国家乐观其成。
中国的汽车销量真的到了3500万一年估计石油到250美元一桶了， 最后根本没有人承受得了。
面对这种窘境，按照TG的传统，必然两手抓， 两手都要硬。 硬的一手是交好巴基斯坦，打通到伊朗的通道。 真的中东有变， 遣一上将军，直出波斯湾， 控制原油出货， 从而捏住全世界的命根子。软的一手就是交好传统产油国，大力但有序地发展新能源， 慢慢和美国的推高石油的策略周旋。
在这种策略下， 无论埃及，巴林是谁掌权， 对TG的影响微乎其微，大概这也是TG最近老神在在的原因所在。
家园 切不可过度扩张 中东这个漩涡，谁进去都出不来，即使危急也不要轻易进入。还是让维稳的继续维稳，自己多发展新型能源，找到能源替代方案，多寻找石油进口渠道，如非洲，南美。
A国骨架还在，切不可冲上去找揍，让其自我消耗就可以了。中国历史讲究强力反弹，有限扩张。如果没有消化的把握，是不能随便扩张的，那将耗尽自己的力量。
而中国的龙兴之地是东南亚，那里属于广义中华文化圈，东南亚人口巨大，这就是消费市场，还有东南亚的各种资源，假以时日，经营好东南亚，不赢也赢了。美国只不过现在力量分不出来，要不然是会千方百计阻止中国对东南亚的融合进程的。
另中东破局的意思不在于掌控中东，接过A国的盘子，而是指A国敢继续利用石油操作来掀起全球通胀，在新兴经济体制造恶性通胀来制造混乱时，就开始正式破除A元和石油的结算制度。泄了其最后一口真气。至于A国最后如用战争进入中东，则可仿援越旧事，提供武器装备给穆斯林世界，用穆斯林人民的汪洋大海进行抗争就够了。