主题：美国国债和中国外储的实质 -- SkyWalkerJ
家园 钱毛了人类怎么办？ 楼主好文，长见识了，第一次认识到这次危机的严重性具体指的是什么。楼主能预测一下新的货币体系会是什么样吗？
家园 大家一起来学 xi summary of key points. Skywalker is a true banker, unlike Song Hongbing, the rogue self-claimed financier.
但是你要发行银票或者纸币，必须仓库里得有等值的银子才行。要不然别人来取，你拿不出银子，那就大势不妙了。这仓库里的银子，就叫做准备金。
--on the balance sheet, left is silver asset, the right side is "currency outstanding". Perfectly balanced. Silver is called "monetarization base".
资本主义要想持续发展，必须有源源不断的货币供应，而金和银都是从地底下挖出来的，不会因为你地球现在搞资本主义制度，它就能多变出一点。这是一个根本性的矛盾。
--that's why British empire spent all efforts to defend its control over South Africa. Control over SA means the control of the most important gold supply and the CONTINUOUS EXPANSION of the trading and economic order inside the British empire.
IF GOLD SUPPLY DRIES UP, THERE WILL BE GLOBAL credit CONTRACTION and then real economic activity contraction.
--because human beings are selfish, stupid, and money-oriented. They work hard only because they want to earn money for a living and saving. **You can NOT maintain a global economic order by 主义 bullshit.
因为那个时代钱只能是真金白银，你要钱，就得去抢，抢更多钱回来才能买机器开工厂。
--no. Gold and silver helps for CREDIT EXPANSION. Gold itself will not stimulate industrialization. Keep in mind, Spain was once "rich" with stolen gold from the New World, but it failed in industrialization.
Gold reserve might stablize financial order, but it can not kill inflation or create physical wealth.
十九世纪和二十世纪初的多次金融危机，可以看做是在基础货币无法扩张的情形下过度使用金融杠杆造成的。
--Y. Thumbs up!!
而二战之后重建和复兴所需要的大量货币资本，也就是使得“最后的金本位制”——布雷顿森林体系很快走向灭亡。
--yes. Gold is too limited. GDP expanded too much.
第二次美元危机，大家都拿着纸币去兑付黄金，这个体系的丧钟就敲响了。
--the stupid Vietnam war just fastened the death of a FUNDAMENTALLY FLAWED SYSTEM.
资本主义的智者们想出了一个天才的主意，不再依托金银发行货币，而是依托债务发行货币。
--YES! they are truly WISE-MEN. At that time, treasury notes were truly the BEST base for monetarization. It actually started in 1930s.
“金银券”变成了“债务券”，货币不再是你对金银权属的一个记账单位，而是你持有的债权的一个记账单位。
比方说俺们中国，早些年咱国债的信用不好(八十年代曾有过赖账的历史)，因此央行如果买入国债发行人民币呢，只怕老百姓和友邦都不大放心。所以央行把大家出口创汇的美元收上来，给你换成人民币，这些美元就是发行人民币的“准备金”或者叫做“外汇储备”。理论上你找央行去说人民币我不要了，给我东西！那么你拿到的是绿茵茵嘎嘎响的美钞，全球硬通货，这下你们对人民币该有信心了吧。
--perfectly true. 外汇储备 is the source of CREDIT EXPANSION IN China in the last 15 years. Why people do not trust RMB itself? Because all human beings, esp., average Chinese are selfish, short-sighted, economic animals. Only RELIABLE money, or "a TRUSTWORTHY paper mirage", can create incentive for hard work.
Chinese have tried to use 毛泽东思想 to stir people to work hard. It failed spectacularly in Big Leap(59-62) and the Cultural Revolution.
BTW, nothing bad against Chinese. Actually all human beings are selfish and short-sighted. And they chase SOLIDER MONEY OVER SOFTER MONEY, just like what Europeans are DOING NOW between Swiss Franc and god-damned Euro.
In sum, we need money as incentive and THEY SHOULD BE TRUSTWORTHY for selfish human beings.
天才的系统设计，彻底消灭了货币发行对黄金数量的依赖，支撑了近三十年全球资本主义的大发展。
-Yes. With USD as the effective global reserve money. USA trade deficit is THE SOURCE OF global credit expansion.
而我们中国，也就得以借助外部资本流入，央行大量收储美元相应发行人民币，提供货币资本，得以不用去打打杀杀，在和平环境下进行了资本主义化。
--And China opens up global market(supply and demand) with its enormous USD hoard.
因此现在对主权债务危机的炒作，最令人忧虑的之处就在于它动摇了“债务货币”这个系统的基石，也就动摇了过去三十年经济发展模式的基础。
--“债务货币”这个系统的基石 first appeared briefly in Venice. So it was not an innovation in the last 30 years.
-- Europe is heading for doom due to exactly that reason.
Euroland is experiencing a painful credit contraction due to 动摇了“债务货币”这个系统的基石. Hehe. Just watch for fun.
那么过去一直依赖债务扩张的货币扩张很可能就要划上句号。任何缩减美国(actually ANY nation's national debt)国债的过程，都等价于货币消灭，必然带来通货紧缩的压力。而资本主义制度下的通缩就等于萧条。
--reduction of Japan's debt=Japan credit contraction ONLY IN ONE NATION.
--reduction of Euroland/USA national debt = GLOBAL RESERVE CURRENCY REDUCTION and global credit contraction.
FINAL comment: given the fundamental flaw in this treasury-note-based system (LOSS of fiscal discipline in the reserve currency nation), shall we switch back to gold standard (it naturally implies economic contraction/credit contraction, high unemployment, international trade disruption and FINALLY WORLD WAR III)
or Shall human beings think more CREATIVELY JUST LIKE the financial elites of UK/US did and create a new better system to lead ALL HUMAN BEINGS INTO next round of technological innovation and global prosperity?
If China can lead in the 2nd option, then CHINA NATURALLY WILL BE THE NEW GLOBAL LEADER!
Unfortunately, I do not think it will happen due to the lack of talents IN China. No offense.
Actually, I also do not think America/Europe has incentive to reform the current FUNDAMENTALLY-FLAWED system, even though both have reservior of talents.
Next 10 years will be years of turmoil and uncertainty, because "the matrix is undergoing a painful system reconfiguration"....
We always live in an imperfect world. Ever since there is human being, we never have a perfect monetary system that can work for millenium without problems.
Treasury-note-as-base might just be a second success/then failure in human's history in terms of financial system configuration...
家园 说的不错啊 特别是这句很好地说明了问题的本质
Because all human beings, esp., average Chinese are selfish, short-sighted, economic animals. Only RELIABLE money, or "a TRUSTWORTHY paper mirage", can create incentive for hard work.
PS：其实兄弟可以试下一些基于浏览器的在线中文输入法的，中英混杂的看了真心蛋疼。虽然用英语写确实有一定的好处，相对来说只有真心想看你写了什么的人才会来看你写了什么。
家园 应和一下 前面天行者的描述有点绕，我多说几句。
首先，债务货币的问题，归根到底是货币银行学领域对于整个银行体系而言“先有存款还是先有借款”的鸡和蛋的问题；从现代货币体系信用扩张的源头而言——央行，肯定是先有借款才有存款；权衡经济增长与之匹配的货币供给以及稳定物价水平成了现代中央银行的主要任务。
其次，各国外汇储备的美国国债化的根源是什么？先是国际经贸分工和全球化背景下新兴市场国家持续贸易盈余形成各国外汇储备积累，然后是现行国际金融体系下发达经济体对各国外储投资或明或暗的限制，使得所谓“良好避险资产”的美国国债成为了“最优”的投资标的。这种结果对于美国是最好的选择：一是负债类而非权益融资能够最小限度的减少对外分配；二是成为美国政府再次筹资的重要场所，并且持续的贸易赤字能够相当大程度输出通胀压力、能够最大程度减少国内物价压力。
第三，所谓美国的货币发行以美国国债作为储备的说法是片面的。货币发行是广义概念，不仅包括现金，更重要的是货币当局的存款类负债；美钞的发行是要以等量国债作为抵押，但存款类负债的增加并不需要国债抵押；因此，对于美联储而言，根本就不需要担心货币宽松的资金来源，很简单，账务系统直接增加负债即可。
所以，不把贸易、金融甚至军事联系在一起去认识美国的货币霸权，可能会有失偏颇。从中国的角度而言，不扩大内部需求、不扩大人民币国际结算、不实行稳健的货币政策，人民币国际化只会是镜中花、水中月。
通宝推：SkyWalkerJ,家园 哈哈哈，来个搞笑的建议。 哈哈哈，来个搞笑的建议。
每年来个全球大比武，每个国家上限出一万军人厮杀。 日落时分按各国斩获首级和剩余人数决定下一年新发行货币配额。
把债务货币变成最可靠的暴力货币。 用鲜血解决贪婪问题。
家园 英汉双语的 看着比纯英文还累 纠了个结的
家园 为何瑞士法郎被认为是安全货币呢？ 实际上2000年之后瑞士就断掉了瑞郎和黄金的联系啊，之后恐怕就是瑞郎在欧洲的大扩张，好像东欧房地产什么的都有它的支撑。