主题：维基解密，线人被曝光 -- 火莲居士

sociologist who frequently advises the Communist

Party's United Front Work Department (UFWD) on Tibet

policy, described the Chinese leadership as under

intense pressure from "Han nationalist" sentiment

that has grown stronger due to recent years' ethnic

unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang. The Chinese public,

he told PolOff February 9, held very negative views

of the Dalai Lama, blamed the Chinese government for

being too soft on minorities, and did not support

dialogue between the UFWD and the Dalai Lama's

representatives (reftel). Adding to the pressure,

high-ranking CCP leaders were preoccupied with

jockeying for succession position in the run-up to

the 18th Party Congress in 2012. In such an

atmosphere, Ma argued, there was no tolerance within

the leadership for moderate views on Tibet or

minority policy. Much of the Chinese regime's

recent international behavior, including its hard

line against foreign leaders meeting the Dalai Lama,

was driven primarily by this combination of domestic

nationalistic pressure and competition for power.

"warn, then punish" toward the POTUS-Dalai Lama

meeting. He predicted that China's reaction would

be more severe than following President Bush's

attendance at the October 2007 Congressional Gold

Medal ceremony for the Dalai Lama. Ma pointed to a

February 2 statement by UFWD Executive Vice Minister

Zhu Weiqun that there would be "serious damage"

(yanzhong pohuai) to bilateral relations should U.S.

leaders meet with the Dalai Lama. China's reaction

would not be restricted to mere rhetoric, though he

could only speculate about the specific steps China

might take. Ma said China might show its

displeasure over the meeting by reducing cooperation

on security issues important to the United States.

Domestically, China might choose to make high-

profile arrests of Tibetan monks after the meeting

and to increase punishments given to Tibetan

political prisoners: "A sentence that would have

been two years may become 10 years." Ultimately, Ma

said, Tibetans would be the "victims" of the

leadership's anger over the meeting.