主题：和平与战争 -- 唵啊吽

昧国在1929年经历了危机，经济学者们很快就进行了反思，包括萨缪尔森，弗里德曼等人都认识到了流动性和有效需求的重要性，认识到了经济危机以后需要输血（即实施宽松货币政策，和大规模的政府投资）

昧国人很快认识到了这一点以后，反过来，也迅速的想到了利用经济学进行欺骗的手段，就是欺骗发展中国家实施反输血---即严厉的紧缩货币，和紧缩政府支出--就是所谓的休克疗法。

于是2008年以后温家宝为了避免危机出台了与罗斯福经济政策一样的政策（四万亿和宽松货币政策），结果被昧国所控制的中国财经媒体猛烈的批判，中国的经济学者和中国的不懂得独立思考的民众也随声附和，当然西西河也在随声附和，结果中国就中了昧国的反输血计谋---即休克疗法的套。

现在中国经济处于严重贫血阶段，失血的实业往投机的房地产拥挤，造成了房地产的巨大泡沫，现在房地产价格已经没有办法涨上去了，地方政府就是再怎么取消限购政策也扶不起房地产了，房地产企业一个个将因为资金链危机而倒下，将带来非常系统的经济危机。

本来中国经济的基本面比昧国好非常多，问题在于昧国的经济学者是良医，而中国的经济学者一个个都是愚蠢不堪的庸医。

中国经济完全有被中国的经济学庸医们医死的可能。

现在情况正在起变化，一个是有传言说周小川要下台，另一个是昧国操纵的财经媒体21世纪经济报道总编沈灏被抓，并且有继续往上抓把整个南方报系一网打尽的可能性。

警方本来仅仅是因为有企业报案21世纪网敲诈而抓人的，没有想到21世纪网的主编们为了自保，一个个把经济敲诈是上级分配的任务这一点给抖露出来，结果就是越来越大的鱼被调出来。

前段时间南方报业集团没有办法，甚至于公然发出要求被抓的人保持沉默的微博。

如果警方继续顺藤摸瓜，摸出南方系财经媒体在昧国的布置下攻击温家宝的四万亿和宽松货币政策这个图谋的话，那么中国经济可能就会迎来一个比较大的生机。

否则，愚昧的经济学者，和昧国控制的财经媒体继续操纵愚弄中国的不会独立思考的民众，形成一个愚蠢而又声势浩大的休克疗法舆论，中国经济发生崩溃的危险是非常大的。

你的职业是我猜的，就凭你“我还真没发觉这场危机对平民百姓的生活造成多大的影响”这一句话，我有80%的把握你是个academic，而且做的不是跟Industry合作的实用成果。

猜对了没有？如果我猜对了，麻烦你对着镜子念“Sheldon”100遍。如果我猜错了，再说。

世上所有学者都是有精神洁癖的。区别在于，美国学者知道美国学术圈跟美国社会不一样，而中国这些屁事不懂的学者们不知道。

毛泽东说知识越多越反动，哪怕加上他原话中路线错误的前提条件，我也是强烈反对这个论断——真有知识的人根本不反动，只有书呆子才反动。

中国大多所谓知识分子根本就没“知识越多”这回事，而且智商有限，以至于到美国呆了大半辈子还不知道美国社会究竟是如何运行的，以为美国学术圈就是美国，全然不知美国正常人根本看不起这些nerds。连社会常识都靠想象、完全没有一手社会数据就脑补的学者们，真是侮辱了学者这个字眼，连美国普通民众究竟受了多少损失都不知道，知识个毛啊。

不仅仅是经济建设，而且感觉在见识方面也是举国开眼看世界，普遍见识不凡。有些网站的新闻可以带评论，经常有许多网友寥寥数语就能从各个方面指出其利弊乃至隐藏的深刻政治经济原因，让人不服不行。

这回，您还真是班门弄斧，让大家见笑了。

中国是净债权国，不是债务国，那美国债务危机的路径套在中国债务上是一个误区。中国还要几万亿的海外资产，而且，中国是有收益的经济体，不像欧美是借债度日、寅吃卯粮。中国债务有优良资产平衡。

欧洲土地面积比中国大，人口才7亿；美国土地和中国相当，人口才三亿。人均土地面积来说，欧美比中国多两三倍。按照市场供求关系定价，中国房间就应该比欧美高。

民族主义也有正义与非正义之分，反侵略的民族主义是正义的。中国如今的民族主义是纪念抗日，是纪念反侵略，这种民族主义在美国以60%军力围堵中国纵恿日菲约挑衅的时候非常有必要。而安倍的民族主义是非正义的，他和内阁拜鬼纪念的是侵略战犯。

最近就有这么一位军人，炫耀他在中国南海任意出入，这难道不是在挑动战争吗？

前些日子就有那么一批军人，坐在车上在伊拉克当街任意开枪，这到底是不是民族主义呢？

还是您说的美国军人，在日本韩国强奸了妇女都可以基本无事，这是不是危险的民族主义呢？

再说您推崇的美国政府，他们曾在南斯拉夫下令轰炸中国大使馆，他们曾经用谎言为借口进攻了伊拉克，这样一批人，又掌握了世界上最强大的军事机器，还嫌不够，一定要让所有人都对他们毫无还手之力才满意，现在中国经济快速发展，眼看他们的这个愿望无法实现，难道他们不会设法用战争阻断中国的发展吗？他们能够如此无耻的在自身利用互联网公司直接监视本国和全世界的时候，反过来攻击中国黑客攻击，那他们什么无耻的事干不出来？

至于您攻击的义和团，尽管他们有各种愚昧之处，但他们至少是在本国的土地上，是在抵抗侵略，而他们的对头是烧了圆明园那班人，那班人的后代有什么资格攻击义和团？那些美国军人远不如义和团，他们才是人渣。

first of all, I know my posts are hard to understand, kind of my notes of my own.

1.

again as a disclaimer, as said before, social science is hard, and I don't really know.

I have been fairly "negative" on TG in almost all my posts, still I would think that, like any political elite of any other countries, TG as china's only social elite(kind of), has been trying to work for the best of Chinese 民族和国家利益, whether they have accomplished that objective is a different discussion;

also, how do you define "Chinese 民族和国家利益" is a total different discussion as well.

what is my logic?

I try the most likely scenario or "most conservative" assumption: that TG is fundamentally not different from US elite, in terms of working for the best 民族和国家利益;

particularly, Chinese nation is such a huge "sample", and to say it is fundamentally different from other major nations, it is just too "risky", in terms of claiming that Chinese elite "这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上", and there is no other elite in china other than TG, as "sad" as it has been.

2.

other than that part, I basically agree with your other points in your post, almost all of them;

3.

because TG and US elite are all working for the best 利益 of 民族和国家 of their own, more than likely they will work out some kind of deals between the two, as opposed to going confrontational, rationality likely dominates;

and fundamentally, I also agree that TG 代表落后生产关系, globally, and TG has to unwind its huge shorting positions against almost the entire world;

It looks like that some part(%?) of TG is going that way, trying to normalize with US led world of capitalism.

4.

now, a huge part(%?) of TG would disagree with the statement that TGchina "代表落后的生产关系", and almost "majority" of Chinese people would be against that statement, for whatever reasons, most likely because of "the Chinese culture"

and strangely enough, that "Chinese culture" with a "落后的生产关系"=gives Chinese society a strong "度量结构" in our current 广义相对论 type world, vs Europe's lack of any "度量结构" in their world, and US is still holding strong to their largely "working well but much more diverse "度量结构".

that is kind of why I put "度量结构" as my first post in commenting your post.

and as we know, in social science, a nation's "度量结构" is largely the matter of that nation only, and for a nation of 1.5B people, and for whatever reasons (including TG's brainwashing, and most likely Chinese culture), Chinese society can largely agree on an unifying and almost a single 社会经济政治"度量结构", and they largely supports TG as a 中央极权, and that "strange thing" itself is a strong source of "china model"'s super power, which almost killed white's little brain(:).

and that "china model" power still has potential.

5.

now, from US(and white world) point of view (and it is very hard for them to understand tgchina), TG "china model" is noting but a fundamentally 黄祸 type "落后的生产关系", kind of why US now is containing TGchina, or even trying 政权更替 game if US figures out a way to do it(very difficult)

now, "objectively" speaking, other than "GDP 温度", what tgchina has contributed into humanity's "innovation and growth" system objective?

not much at all.

on the other hand, one could argue that compared to Indian, tgchina have been doing a lot of better economically.

so, how "落后" is tgchina 的生产关系? it is in itself a "social science"

6.

so, the global human system basically got a huge elephant "Tgchina" into its increasingly crowded house, and it is a challenge for everybody, kind of TGchina as a huge 梯度 popping out inside the system, stressing everybody out, compressing system's 自由度 to the possibly "dangerous" level.

and even "worse", because TG thinks it really 代表 Chinese 民族和国家利益, and majority of Chinese people kind of supports TG, making that challenge even "worse" to the global system.

7.

and Uncle Sam should feel blessed that TGchina did not grab the golden opportunity of 中华邦联 of 新加坡 and TW, a nightmare for US-centered white world.

and that also tells you that Chinese nation is not an 攻击 type nation/civilization, unlikely to change even in future when tgchina grows even stronger.

and "luckily" for the world, tgchina may have topped out anyway in terms of its "china model" potential.

8.

and I am glad to know that people like you start discussing topic like this.

and kind of why I posted

changshou: "时空中 度量结构（距离）的定义" here under this topic, borrowing some methodology from the most advanced science of humanity as we know.

and as "great" as GR is in a GR 时空, even a regional 度量结构 is challenging, 引力场量子化 is still a day dream: as a result, we basically don't really know "what is information" and "how information is transmitted" in a GR 时空.

and how about a social GR world of global scale?

much more challenging.

however, "luckily" for the world, the elephant in the room is tgchina, a historically very "善良" nation as we all know.

for that reason alone, I don't see any war risk in the foreseeable future, not at all.

economic war of various kinds are more likely, which as a peaceful "model competition" is a good thing, and in a way, it is really time for Uncle Sam to wake up as well: if nothing else, its own white trash population growth is almost getting out of control, period.