主题：【原创】【商榷】上海的防疫，具体问题要具体分析 -- 孟词宗
家园 第一张图表明疫苗挡不住奥米克隆的传播。 第二张图表明，奥米克隆大范围传播，死人数不少于前几波病毒。
家园 【讨论】说奥米克隆危害性很小恐怕为时过早 以上海的病例看，的确重症少。不过以色列的数据如何解释呢?以色列可是接种率很高的。我试试上两张图。
家园 搞对照组研究，拿国外的数据对照都有问题，最好的是把上海自己的 病毒型、人种、家庭社会形态、居住密集度、个人防护率、接种率、疫苗品种、医疗方案差异太大。
最好的数据就是上海自身的数据，也不知道为何迟迟不公布上海本身的阳性率，重症率、死亡率这些，接种疫苗后的重症率、死亡率，各年龄段的重症率、死亡率等。
只要有数据交叉统计检验分析这些并不难，如果从写论文的角度看，有些结论是站不住脚的，大一学生写出来还勉强说的过去，大四或研究生写就要被 骂了。
家园 问题是数据的真实性如何，统计口径是什么？
家园 以色列的数据是有问题的 以色列的接种数不包括巴勒斯坦人。但阳性率却包括巴勒斯坦人。
以色列优先照顾犹太人。对巴勒斯坦人则提供即将过期的疫苗。例如下面这个新闻：
巴勒斯坦政府发言人易卜拉欣·穆勒哈姆在周五的新闻发布会上说，巴卫生部医疗和技术小组对首批约9万剂辉瑞疫苗进行检测，结果发现这批疫苗不符合交换协议所规定的技术指标，因此巴总理阿什提耶指示卫生部取消该协议。卫生部长马伊·凯拉说，以色列表示这些疫苗在7、8月过期，但实际上这些疫苗在6月就过期了。
在过去的几个月里，以色列和巴勒斯坦使用了不同的疫苗。到目前为止，以色列接种疫苗的人口比例比任何国家都要高:大约63%的以色列人至少接种了一剂。许多科学家认为，以色列现在已经达到了群体免疫，病毒不会轻易在人与人之间传播。
6月初，以色列取消了严格的限制：企业现在可以正常运营，居民进入餐馆、体育赛事或娱乐场所不再需要出示他们已经接种疫苗的证据。
与此同时，据巴勒斯坦官员说，在约旦河西岸和加沙地带，只有不到9%的巴勒斯坦人口至少接种了一剂疫苗。其中许多疫苗还是来自其他国家——包括俄罗斯、中国和阿拉伯联合酋长国，也就是COVAX计划。
貌似奇怪的以色列数字，其实反映的是以色列对于巴勒斯坦人民的残酷压迫。
家园 看微博，英国的数字也挺吓人的 
不知真假了。。。。。
家园 【讨论】英国的数据，和以色列的数据同一来源。 
家园 英国数据有3个，NHS，政府和一夜情 这3个数字就从来没对上过。英国政府数据永远比一夜情小一大截。
个人认为一夜情数据相对而言可靠性最高，一夜情（国家统计局）负责统计生老病死，其数据是根据死亡证明统计而来，所以要比小金毛的政府可靠很多。链接可以看我之前的帖子。
按照我从21年7月开始在一夜情抓取的英格兰和威尔士数据存档，死亡证书上新冠死亡的数字如下：（我顺便把统计条件也贴出来）
2020年
80830人
Footnotes:
1 Coding of deaths by cause for the latest week is not yet complete.
2 For deaths registered from 1st January 2020, cause of death is coded to the ICD-10 classification using MUSE 5.5 software. Previous years were coded to IRIS 4.2.3, further information about the change in software is available.
3 Deaths involving COVID-19 have been included within weekly death registrations figures due to the pandemic.
4 Does not include deaths where age is either missing or not yet fully coded. For this reason counts of 'Persons', 'Males' and 'Females' may not sum to 'Total Deaths, all ages'.
5 Does not include deaths of those resident outside England and Wales or those records where the place of residence is either missing or not yet fully coded. For this reason counts for "Deaths by Region of usual residence" may not sum to "Total deaths, all ages".
6 These figures represent death registrations, there can be a delay between the date a death occurred and the date a death was registered. More information can be found in our impact of registration delays release.
7 Figures in this table are added for the current week; data for previous weeks are not updated each week.
2021年
76094人
Footnotes:
1 Coding of deaths by cause for the latest week is not yet complete.
2 For deaths registered from 1st January 2020, cause of death is coded to the ICD-10 classification using MUSE 5.5 software. Previous years were coded to IRIS 4.2.3, further information about the change in software is available.
3 Deaths involving COVID-19 have been included within weekly death registrations figures due to the pandemic.
4 Does not include deaths where age is either missing or not yet fully coded. For this reason counts of 'Persons', 'Males' and 'Females' may not sum to 'Total Deaths, all ages'.
5 Does not include deaths of those resident outside England and Wales or those records where the place of residence is either missing or not yet fully coded. For this reason counts for "Deaths by Region of usual residence" may not sum to "Total deaths, all ages".
6 These figures represent death registrations, there can be a delay between the date a death occurred and the date a death was registered. More information can be found in our impact of registration delays release.
7 Figures in this table are added for the current week; data for previous weeks are not updated each week.
8 For breakdowns of deaths registered in 2020 please see Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales 2020 provisional dataset.
9 From week ending 26th February 2021 (week 8) new ICD-10 codes for COVID-19 issued by the World Health Organisation (WHO) have been implemented for deaths involving COVID-19. The new codes are U09.9 (Post-COVID condition, where the acute COVID had ended before the condition immediately causing death occurred) and U10.9 (Multisystem inflammatory syndrome associated with COVID-19 (also called Kawasaki-like syndrome), a specific, uncommon effect of COVID-19 in children). These are in addition to the existing codes of U07.1 (COVID-19, virus identified) and U07.2 (COVID-19, virus not identified, i.e. COVID-19 stated to be unconfirmed or suspected).
2022年截至wk13也就是22年4月1日
12767人
Weekly provisional figures on death registrations involving COVID-19 in England and Wales by sex and age group, registered 2022
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总结一下就是按照一夜情的统计，单纯英格兰和威尔士官方认可的新冠死亡总数截至2022年4月1日是是80830+76094+12767=169691人
这里是英国政府的统计
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom
可以选择按照nation下载死亡数据。
Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date of death
Number of people who died within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case by a positive test. Data from England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales use different methodologies, so can’t be directly compared. Data for the last 5 days, highlighted in grey, are incomplete. Data are shown by date of death.
去除22年4月1日之后的数据后汇总如下
英格兰+威尔士
20年共计70341， 一夜情统计的要比英国政府的多出14.9%
21年共计66711， 一夜情统计的要比英国政府的多出14.1%
22年截至4月1日共计16788， 一夜情统计的要比英国政府的要多24%
总数是153840
和一夜情的统计差额是15851人. 也就是一夜情统计的同期数据比英国政府统计的要多10.3%。
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但是用同一个网页里Daily deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate by date of death统计
Daily numbers of deaths of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, and 7-day rolling average. There is a lag in reporting of at least 11 days because the data are based on death registrations. Data are shown by date of death.
按理说这个数据应该就是一夜情所用原始数据，但是也对不上
截至22年4月1日
英格兰+威尔士的总数是172362，而一夜情的是169691.
22年英格兰和威尔士总死亡是12254， 全英是14163.
反正不管怎么统计，英国官方认可新冠死亡人数超17万是铁板钉钉的事情。也就是2年时间，新冠（这里取17万简化计算）造成了总人口（按照7千万算）的0.24%死亡。
22年的Q1 三个月新冠死了总人口（按照7千万算）的0.02%也是大差不差的。这个数据不能直接套到国内去算国内开放后可能的死亡数字，因为英国老年人和身体不好的，在20年和21年差不多都应死尽死了。
通宝推：菜根谭,家园 英国大把不打疫苗的 例如河里的燕人同志以前就说自己和老婆都没打过疫苗。英国的疫苗又太拉胯，副作用太高。所以大家更加抗拒。这样感染率高有何奇怪。
家园 说到不打疫苗。。。。 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-61085870
UK officials investigating total of 74 child hepatitis cases
英国发现今年儿童肝炎病例（不是常见的五种已知肝炎病毒）显著增多，基本都是年纪小没有打疫苗的，正在调查会不会跟新冠有关。
我还是希望至少有一个国家能够对国民负责。全民肉身测试出现不久仍然在不停进化的病毒的可能后遗症这样可怕的工作已经有足够多的躺平国来干了。
通宝推：心有戚戚,