主题：【原创】关于世界经济周期的相关证据（1） -- 万里风中虎

金融创新是双刃剑，关键看怎么用。90年代之所以会有信息高速公路，近30年IT，生物技术等等新技术的突飞猛进，无不与金融创新密切相关。如果没有风险投资，没有股权激励，没有宽松的融资环境，包括大规模的垃圾债市场以及为它们提供保险的CDS和CDO，美国赖以骄傲的数以万记的中小高科技企业根本不可能诞生，成长，壮大。

至于这两年走歪了，也正是因为资本不再象10年前那样大规模进入科技领域带动生产力提高，而是进入房地产领域。但这恰恰说明了加大投入提高科技生产力这条道路的正确性。

总之，金融创新可好可坏，不能因噎废食给单纯的金融创新就贴上政治标签。

复永远不要小看领导人的智慧

家园

花”道“

樱木兄好！

复 “金融创新"越来越被妖魔化了

家园

您的观点不错，但是要把创新和利用定价权获取暴利区分

CDO ，CDS等等金融工具是好还是还是坏，这是需要具体问题具体分析的，为什么CDO，CDS这样的旨在分散风险的金融工具却带来了扩大金融风险的结果，可能是因为这样的金融工具扩大了人们的贪欲吧

我认为需要从博弈论，信息经济学的角度分析为什么CDO ，CDS失效，即从信息流动的角度---在信息流动的过程中信息的不对称性的发展，以及与信息流动，信息不对称性有关的风险的变化可以获得一些成果出来

复多谢。送花

家园

长期来看，股票总是涨的

如果不退市的话，呵呵。

如果把100年的道琼斯指数，美国国债，美元放在一起看，股票是回报最好的。尽管30年代有个巨大的“坑”，但到了50年代填了坑又重新创了新高。

长期来看，经济总是（指数递增？）向上走的，而背后的道理就是技术创新，生产力提高。

当然，凯恩斯说过，长期来看，人都要死的。。。老巴活得比较长，所以看起来比较富。

复看不到图的河友，

家园

[email protected]

多谢虎大！

复希望收到虎大图的国内网友贴下图，谢谢啦

家园

没上过图，不知道哪里放图片合适，谁推荐个地，我上图！

复您的观点不错，但是要把创新和利用定价权获取暴利区分

家园

暴利无原罪

我最爱的一段电影台词，取自《华尔街》：

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaKkuJVy2YA

Gordon Gekko: [at the Teldar Paper stockholder's meeting] Well, I appreciate the opportunity you're giving me Mr. Cromwell as the single largest shareholder in Teldar Paper, to speak. Well, ladies and gentlemen we're not here to indulge in fantasy but in political and economic reality. America, America has become a second-rate power. Its trade deficit and its fiscal deficit are at nightmare proportions. Now, in the days of the free market when our country was a top industrial power, there was accountability to the stockholder. The Carnegies, the Mellons, the men that built this great industrial empire, made sure of it because it was their money at stake. Today, management has no stake in the company! All together, these men sitting up here own less than three percent of the company. And where does Mr. Cromwell put his million-dollar salary? Not in Teldar stock; he owns less than one percent. You own the company. That's right, you, the stockholder. And you are all being royally screwed over by these, these bureaucrats, with their luncheons, their hunting and fishing trips, their corporate jets and golden parachutes.

Cromwell: This is an outrage! You're out of line Gekko!

Gordon Gekko: Teldar Paper, Mr. Cromwell, Teldar Paper has 33 different vice presidents each earning over 200 thousand dollars a year. Now, I have spent the last two months analyzing what all these guys do, and I still can't figure it out. One thing I do know is that our paper company lost 110 million dollars last year, and I'll bet that half of that was spent in all the paperwork going back and forth between all these vice presidents. The new law of evolution in corporate America seems to be survival of the unfittest. Well, in my book you either do it right or you get eliminated. In the last seven deals that I've been involved with, there were 2.5 million stockholders who have made a pretax profit of 12 billion dollars. Thank you.

I am not a destroyer of companies. I am a liberator of them! The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right, greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA. Thank you very much.

Gordon Gekko: Greed is good.

赞同与否，必须承认，人类的贪欲，在加以节制（道德体系，制度安排）的前提下，确实促进人类的进步。

关于CDO与CDS，崩溃是必然的，因为它们一开始太成功，以至于数量爆炸性增长。我手头有份美林的资料，信用衍生品市场用了6年时间容量就达到了股票市场近100多年发展出的规模。要知道衍生品是要有基础产品(underlying)的，现在衍生品规模比基础产品还大，不出问题就见鬼了。

很不幸，本来想用来减少风险的产品最终由于太成功而规模失控。上文提到的函数最终变成了10*sin(0.5x)+exp(x)，波谷确实被延后，但大大加深了。

本帖一共被 2 帖引用 (帖内工具实现)

复长期来看，股票总是涨的

家园

你讲得很清晰，花。

小心股票长期也会出现“波谷确实被延后，但大大加深”。

开始太成功了，人们一般认为以后也会成功，但也可能一蹶不振。

周期律不可能被克服，这个哲学理念我们有生之年就能够验证。呵呵。可能只有中国人才深信它，西方人还是偏爱单调上升思维。

复看不到图的河友，