主题：【原创】新年政治经济展望之四：金融资本（一） -- 井底望天

理解，但是

如果不具体的把他们及其言论，我们如何识别及增强识别能力！

被这家伙坑了几十亿，还是美金，这个事是葡萄还是陈经说过。娶的老婆是个跳水运动员。

欧洲统一欧元，德国其实是占了便宜的，包括德国对欧盟内其他国家的贸易和德国对欧盟外国家的贸易。

对欧盟外，由于其他国家的拉低作用，现在的欧元肯定不及当年的德国马克坚挺。

在欧盟内，其他国家本来可以通过对马克贬值来调节对德的逆差，就算不贬值也还有一些隐性障碍可以利用。现在都做不到了，结果资本主义经济区域发展不平衡的效果被放大了。

在中国，这种发展不平衡是部分靠中央财政的二次分配来缓解的。但欧盟没有这种机制，结果导致一些弱势国家越来越差，除非这些国家学中国地方政府大搞地区保护主义。不过这样德国又会嚷嚷了。

德国现在必须正视自己占了便宜这一现实，向弱势国家提供援助（相当于二次分配），并以此来促进欧元区更进一步地经济财政融合。要搞清楚，这是经济规律，不要鼠目寸光，老扯什么自己勤劳节俭，别人懒惰。在中国，很多有钱人也是这样说没钱人的。

1.关键词都给了，自己用搜索引擎去搜！

2.对事不对人

他们顶多移民到某联邦的某小岛属地去,过自己的逍遥日子,然后他们的主子就再扶植一批所谓的砖家继续上阵忽悠.

对人开炮是没用的

那恐怕还需要欧洲的一次大动荡来实现。

没有一个国家的基础，德国怎么也不可能把自己的钱给别人，不管这钱是如何挣到的。

井兄觉得有什么制度性的解决办法吗？还是大家只能掷骰子，看大点？

这不是与虎谋皮的事情吗？

真是情何以堪

需要统一的财政政策。其中一个方法，就是用欧元区整体的名义，发行国债，然后把这个债分下去。这样的话，可以借助德国的好信用，降低利率水平，让穷国家们日子好过一点。

不过德国在欧元成立的时候，马克是颇为高估，花了几年时间消化掉。但是德国因为欧元成功，日本因为东南亚日元区失败，导致德国躲过美国的剪羊毛。

http://v3.moodys.com/researchandratings/methodology/003006001/rating-methodologies/methodology/003006001/4294966628/4294966848/0/0/-/0/rr

http://www.moodys.com.br/brasil/pdf/SovGuide2006.pdf

Sovereign rating manual of Moody's

I think S&P posted similar documents online.

I am expert on corporate issue rating, not expert on Sovereign ratings. But some general principles will apply.

1.annual deficit (just like corporate profitability ratio)

2.accumulated debt deflated by total assets or total revenue (here it is debt/GDP ratio since gov. does not provide balance sheet asset info).

3.debt currency issue (foreign currency issue rating is ALWAYS LOWER than domestic currency issue--because of many foreign buyers)

US deficit ratio is as bad as Greece (both around 12%, 11% for Portugal and 9.3% for Spain. Italy is safest, 5.5%), but US public debt/GDP ratio is only 54%, while Greece is around 125%(if you still believe its revised ratio from its highly corrupted statistics department--Greece is worse than China in its public administration).

Both US/Greek government debts are mainly sold to foreigners (Greece has been like that for many years, US has 70% debts sold to Chinese and Japanese since 2003). But US has the credibility of safe haven that Greece does not have. During 2008 financial crisis, all global capital flooded into American gov. bonds and for a while, the implicit interest rate is even negative...

US still has the global reserve currency status, which allows it to use printing press to temporarily solve its problem. Greece does not have that capability yet.

能解释一下为啥PIGS国债降级，而国债远超GDP的日本却没被降级吗？

--2009 Japan gov. deficit=1% of GDP.

--I remember Debt/GDP ratios are 200%(Japan), 125%(Greece), 120%(Italy), 80%(Portugal), 55%(Spain--much better than all Latin peers, only drawback is the deficit and loss of competitiveness). Japan has high saving rate while all those Latin European nations have little domestic savings (they know how to enjoy life--Joie de vivre). When you have your debt in your currency and most buyers are your nationals, your rating will be better.

日本却没被降级吗？

--I remember one rater actually downgraded Japan and other 2 put Japan under negative watch for downgrades. Keep in mind, there are three raters: S&P, Moody's and Fitch. They do not act together.

是不是政治因素也是评级的依据之一？

--Political stability FOR SURE is a major rating factor. That's why Ukraine's rating is always bad--the PM just resigned after losing a political fight and the gov. still has no budget for the new year. Same problem for Argentina.

--In terms of US rating of "AAA", actually it is not just for USA. Canada/Germany/US now all enjoy AAA ratings. Canada/Germany deserve that though both nations ran higher deficit in 2009 (3% and 5.5% respectively). US has one-time deficit of 12%. US still has a low debt/GDP ratio (54%, lower than Canada), but this ratio is going up quickly under lavish budgets of the Obama administration.

If we look at long-term prospect--given the Obama high deficit plans for next 10 years, US might lose the AAA rating soon. Moody's has warned US gov. publicly.

BTW, 90% is the threshold for Debt/GDP ratio based on Carmen Reinhart study. After that, one nation became very vulnerable and the debt service cost will signficantly weaken the public finance of that nation.

America is marching towards that danger zone under our great blah-blah promiser leader Hussein Obama.

short-sighted.

就是用欧元区整体的名义，发行国债，然后把这个债分下去。这样的话，可以借助德国的好信用，降低利率水平，让穷国家们日子好过一点。

--Germans have not given one penny to Greece up till now and I suspect there will be.