主题：【原创】时事述评：黄海和南海 -- 井底望天

全国80万人，而且干的是代工。相对于SIP，其实我更反对富士康这种例子，这种代工搞100年也搞不出个名堂

要看具体情况，对于泻湖，四周都有岩石了，只要中间填上沙石的话，价格就会便宜很多。

如果不是国内亲美力量的利益输送，新加坡早掉到跟马来差不多的地位了，不然李光耀也不会又哭又叫的要并入马来西亚

个人认为，你的气势比李光耀更大，更令人敬仰

报导可以很明显看出李显龙和老李有注意中国网站发出的讯息。

最重要的一点：中国产业链持续向高端发展，进而强烈挤压了新加坡未来发展空间。这一点，作为地区性小国的新加坡怎么都无法避免。人力资源规模，自然资源丰腴度，市场规模大小，产业链的完整度，这些都是小国家的命门所在。这也是新加坡现阶段逼于无奈开赌场走偏门的原因之一。

其二：就新加坡本身统治的稳定性而言，未来堪忧。过去几十年的历史证明老李能力足以维持一个400-500人口的国家/公司的稳定。但是小李这方面能力如何？老班底在老领导过世之后对于新领导是否足够忠诚？准备接班的新班底能力又如何？2008年一场金融危机直接把小李老婆赶下台，部分证明了国家最高领导人的位置小李坐的还不是那么稳妥。对于一个威权国家，最高领导更替的不顺利往往是引发社会动荡最主要原因。

其三：新加坡狭小的国土面积决定了其较少的人口数量，最终导致其过于稀少的高端人口数量，从而未来发展空间进一步受到压制。在NUS读书的话，应该可以感觉到这个学校相当多本土学生质量堪忧。现阶段新加坡高素质人口主要从中国，印度这些人口大国引入。但是在未来几年内中国发展到了一个新高度之后，新加坡的高素质人口从何处来？再深入一点，如果新加坡最终从印度引入了足量高素质人口，其政府决策必然会偏向印度。那么和东亚以及东南亚未来霸主国的冲突自然难免。总体效果还不如不引入这些印度人力资源。

当然，这些都是中长期问题。就短期而言，中国产业链升级需要10年以上的时间段；这几年老李身体还算不错，他的存在足以保持李家王朝的稳固；而且中国沿海一线城市生活水准和新加坡生活水准相比吸引力还不够明显，中国不少人才还会选择去新加坡而不是北上广，所以说新加坡还可以过好几年的好日子。但是未来，无论中国对其打压与否，新加坡的沦落已是必然。

先马上和泰国商量开工造运河，中国出技术资金，除了以后占运河股份以外免费负责清除挖出来的所有泥土。然后宣布所有向中国造船厂定大船的中外客户可以把旧船开到中国来当定金，展开以旧换新的Scrappage Scheme。旧船到以后改装一下就统统派到泰国去把挖运河挖出来泥沙运去填海。等填的差不多以后，把船上所有的可用的部件统统拆掉，上面装上一个假舰桥，让海军航空兵练习攻击航母课程，或者装上自动驾驶装置让第二炮兵练导弹打航母。假航母沉在填土的最上方，里面正好养珊瑚什么的，过个几年变可新的珊瑚岛。我觉的这样挺和谐。

以中海油的官僚作风，大家就不要抱太多幻想。

中新两国的关系不是单纯的竞争关系，中国的发展并不是零和游戏，恰恰相反，中国的不断发展对于新加坡来说，反而是一个机会：新加坡同中国的合作也带给了新加坡大量的财富。另外，中国不可能在所有领域都占据绝对优势，而且中国不可能在所有领域都有相同的相对优势。比如将来一个中国人干任何事都会比一个新加坡人的生产效率高，可是他去生产机器人就比生产白色家电赚的多，那么就会有更多的人生产机器人而不是白色家电，这就为小国留下了发展的余地。虽说小国的劣势多，但优势在于只要一点点就能吃饱，而且转向速度非常快。

新加坡现在着重的生物制药，大飞机维修，高精密产品加工，我觉得方向还是不错的，当然最重要的还是在于人才

我觉得新加坡的高端人才还是不少的，对于一个只有300多万人的小城市而言。我也很同意你的关于国大本地学生的素质问题，他们很多人貌似已经很努力了，但是就是成绩不怎么好，可是最终毕业的时候，我很惊奇的发现：中国的奖学金学生整体成绩并没有特别好（新加坡的本科学位根据成绩分成不同的荣誉学位），最多的还是在second lower，也就是很普通的成绩：而这些奖学金生都是中国的重点大学挑出来的。

而且新加坡的本土最优秀人才，都是去欧美的牛校受教育的。这些人才是被新加坡政府视为核心高端人才的，而且所引进的高端人才，基本都是研究员或者工程师，我觉得这些人对国策的影响反而没有中国在新大批的建筑，搬运，环卫等客工更有影响：一旦这些人骚乱，或者简单的罢工，新加坡马上就会停止运转。

当然，我对新加坡的未来也是有点悲观的，因为现任新加坡政府貌似不知道应该给自己一个什么样的定位。作为一个没有真正腹地的城市国家，新加坡的经济未来，应该在于本地+外国高端人才构成一个强大的研究中心，能够对他的工业进行强有力的支持，而他的工业应该是技术+经验密集型。毕竟新加坡的环境对中国的技术人员还是很有吸引力的：华人国家，比较低的个税，优良的环境，便利的公共交通，相对较高的工资，而且，不用做房奴！（可以买二手的组屋）而且回国探亲，去周边或者欧美旅游都很方便。

可现在，新加坡对于外国客工的吸收完全没有一个明确的想法，对于自己的经济模式也不是特别清晰。不过今年是大选年，在政策上摇摆讨好选民也是正常的，具体的分析还要看明年大选后的政策

而且文化自豪感和民族自豪感非常强

认识几个马来华人，说在马来西亚很多华人依然以中国人自居的

States are quite different from the one you met.

In terms of foreign policies, Israeli can be China's enemy. But on an individual-to-individual basis, my experience with jewish people in States is quite positive.

作为华人，还是希望新加坡这样一个唯一的海外华人国家能保持兴旺。

对于新加坡的腹地的问题，是否可以理解为就是东南亚一带的华人？虽然华人在东南亚各国都是少数民族，但是经济上都还水平不错，而新加坡作为华人国家，又是最发达的都市之一，应该会有一定的辐射效应吧。

顺便说一下，今年芒果台的快男海外赛区也有一个马来西亚赛区，感觉怪怪的，不知道为什么不搞成东南亚赛区放在新加坡。

The Jewish director has already picked a title to demonstrate his contempt towards China.

to some extent, I guess both sides, China and Jews, did not and do not tell the full truth.

It is true that there was no entry visa at that time since Chinese had no full control of Shanghai at all and the concessions(Zu Jie) were like foreign land on China's soil.

这部纪录片中充斥这犹太人的自我赞颂,对中国/中国人的态度却令人不满:

1. 对于常公在上海战败并丧失国家主权持幸灾乐祸的态度.

--We had to admit that KMT gov. was such an unbelievable corrupted loser gov. The first half of Anti-Jap War was series of humiliating stories.

KMT's armies sound really like the poor Italian army during the WWII.

Chinese deserved contempt with such kind of terribly corrupted gov. Chinese got some respect after the Korea War because even Americans were defeated ... Respect is earned, not deserved.

2. 用大量篇幅强调上海的"恶劣条件",比如气候炎热,住房拥挤,卫生条件差等等.

--it was because Jewish getto was located in Hong Kou district. They were too poor to afford high-end housing in the French concession (Lu Wan district). I lived in Lu Wan and my cousin lived in Hong Kou: the houses are like heaven compared to hell.

--Everything is relative. Those Jews used to be middle-class or high-end social celebrities in richer European nations (such as Germany or France), so it was a big constrast for them.

--BTW, those Jews from Russia did not complain. Those rich Russian Jews already bought up nice properties in Shanghai and lived like king and queen there. Very poor Russian Jews did not complain because life in Shanghai was just as bad as life back in Russia. So everything is relative.

3. 对于中国人提供的帮助,比如何凤山的事迹,比如上海人的友善态度,要么不提,要么轻描淡写.

--First, white people remember favor from whites first. Human nature.

--Second, the most helpful visa officer is actually a Swedish diplomat, who not only issued Swedish visa to Jews, but also faked Swedish passports for them. He saved 20k+ Jews and was assassinated by Germans. There were systematic evidence on that. In He's case, he passed away too early in SF and there were limited evidence. Even today, we did not have exact account of how many Jews he actually helped.

--Yes. There was no systematic help from China's gov or Chinese organization because Shanghai was then already in Jap's hands. I met one nice Jew whose grandparents once lived in Shanghai. He mentioned that his grandparents traded off various accessory, such as cigar lighter, nice jacket, ties for money to buy food. Some nice Shanghainese would give them a bit more than they asked.

He and his grandparents still are grateful to Chinese for their kindness.

There were no account of other systematic help from chinese since many Chinese were suffering from Jap tyranny too then. Most Chinese were struggling for their survival too. Mr. Sui Jun-yi kept on talking about free bread from Chinese to Jews. First, it did not make sense (Chinese did not use bread as staple), second, Chinese were too poor to do that too.

Finally, 用大量篇幅强调上海的"恶劣条件",比如气候炎热,住房拥挤. I still remember the interview with an Israeli professor, who grew up in Shanghai. He was very frank. Below is the quote from him: everything is relative. When we were in Shanghai, we complained about this, we complained about that. But at least we survived and we had our own school and we grew up well. After we heard what happend to our cousins after WWII, we felt that we had lived in heaven...

"Everything is relative"-- at least he is grateful.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zSqj6hLZ18&feature=search

I also have detailed comments 2 floors below.

一团浆糊，还在这里言之凿凿，你怎么下得了这个笔。

人民行动党管你中国网民的动向？别人吃饱了撑的。

I agree. Each side has its own interests and agenda. I also suspected that Jewish money was behind the media hype in China.

In fact, I don't care whether Jewish people are grateful to China or not. As you said, many of them are. I also think it's not that bad for Israel/Jewish groups to use the history for their own advantages. What makes me worry is someone of our own are too naive to think about the motivation behind their words and actions. That's why I regard 井大's articles are so valuable - they remind us that we have our own interests to take care of.