主题:今年1-10月印度的外国直接投资下降了38%,这个幅度超 -- 土拨鼠yuanap
觉得陈经应该去印度当一次顺民,再来说印度社会稳定,天下无敌。
企鹅不是南方系吗
比如在世界贸易组织谈判、气候变化谈判和人民币升值问题上印度的立场一定是不一致的,一会儿跟这个国家站在一起,一会儿跟那个国家站在一起。归根结底印度还是从自己国家的利益出发处理对外问题,不会加入哪个特定阵营为别人火中取栗。
再说这几个国家也没有能耐逼印度站队,印度自身实力和潜力就超过法、德、英这些所谓的“欧洲大国”了,跟中美俄也有一比,一百年后谁比谁强还不好说。
所以它们有很大可能就是去巴结印度的,除了中国是去行贿,其它几国应该都想卖点飞机、反应堆之类的东西给印度。
印度30-40%的农村地区白天政府控制,晚上毛派游击队控制,这叫稳定?
印度还没有出毛泽东,不过,梁山好汉遍地都是。
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Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8256692.stm
India** is 'losing Maoist battle' *
Maoist rebels in Chhattisgarh
Maoists have a presence in almost 200 Indian districts
*India**'s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says his country is losing the battle against Maoist rebels.*
Mr Singh told a meeting of police chiefs from different states that rebel violence was increasing and the Maoists' appeal was growing.
The rebels say they are fighting for the rights of the poor.
They operate in a large swathe of territory across central India, and in some areas have almost replaced the local government.
More than 6,000 people have been killed during their 20-year fight for a communist state.
*'Going up'*
"I have consistently held that in many ways, left-wing extremism poses perhaps the gravest internal security threat our country faces," Mr Singh told a conference of Indian police chiefs in the capital, Delhi.
"We have discussed this in the last five years and I would like to state frankly that we have not achieved as much success as we would have liked in containing this menace."
The prime minister said that despite the government's best efforts, violence in Maoist-affected areas was going up.
The prime minister admitted that the Maoists had growing appeal among a large section of Indian society, including tribal communities, the rural poor as well as sections of the intelligentsia and the youth.
Mr Singh said a more sensitive approach was necessary in dealing with the Maoists.
"Dealing with left-wing extremism requires a nuanced strategy - a holistic approach. It cannot be treated simply as a law and order problem."
The rebels operate in 182 districts in India, mainly in the states of Jharkhand, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal.
In some areas they have virtually replaced the local government and are able to mount spectacular attacks on government installations.
*The Indian government has obtained a leaked report that reveals the strategy of the country's Maoist insurgents. *
The report is formulated by the group's top policy-making body, the politburo.
It calls for attacks on Indian security forces and efforts to stop multi-national corporations from taking over mines in central and eastern India.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says the insurgency is the single biggest threat to India's security. Maoist violence affects a third of all districts.
Last week, Mr Singh said India was losing the battle against the rebels.
The Maoists say they are fighting for the rights of the poor. They operate in a large swathe of territory across central and eastern India.
More than 6,000 people have been killed during their 20-year fight for a communist state.
*'Bitter' fight *
Calling upon Maoist cadres to mobilise and carry out "tactical" operations against India's security forces, the 20-page document says that Mr Singh's government is preparing to destroy their resistance.
Accusing the government of linking up with the "imperialist" United States, the Maoist report asks cadres to meticulously plan attacks against symbols of government and to "seize" political power.
Warning its cadres against becoming complacent, the politburo says that India is getting assistance from America and that it should learn from the failure of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) in Sri Lanka.
It says the LTTE's failure to understand the changing tactics of the security forces eventually led to their defeat.
Maoists argue that big industrial houses, like India's Tata Group, are helped by the government in their attempts to wrest control of mines in eastern India.
The insurgents are calling upon the tribal population to participate in an armed struggle.
Maoist fighters are urged to tell local people that the Singh government wants to subdue them, destroy their culture and loot resources.
"This time the fight will be more long drawn and more bitter than the one against the British imperialist armies," the document says.
*Bomb-making *
Speaking at recent meetings on internal security India's Home Minister P Chidambaram said Maoists had improved their military and operational tactics.
Besides targeting the police, alleged police informers and so-called class enemies, the rebels are "laying greater emphasis on attacking economic and development infrastructure such as roads, bridges, railways, power and telecommunication networks," he said.
He also warned that the Maoists were making and deploying increasingly sophisticated bombs.
A senior official told the BBC that Mr Chidambaram has been trying to impress upon state governments that they should not take the threat posed by Maoists lightly.
He wants state governments to simplify procedures and increase the recruitment of security forces and use federal funds to buy weapons.
But, as a recent review by the home ministry showed, most states have been slow in understanding the seriousness of the situation.
More BBC reporting
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/south_asia/8266550.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8263311.stm
唱衰是没有成本不需要理由的。
不要看衰,但要坚持唱衰世界一切其他国家。
印度人精神强大,有自己的标准。你以为它这么混乱,总得完蛋了吧?但它经济增长还是不错,还活力十足,不想想是为啥?这说明内心的强大,而且是别人轻易理解不了的强大。
以前对印度兵的印象就是大包头……
时代变了,微博和SNS才是人际交流的主要渠道,实名制和免费是大势所趋,QQ的市场正在被蚕食,现在依仗现金流到处抢地盘看起来威风,实际上只剩个空架子,垄断资本要吃亏喽。
那是西方国家撑着它。
为何撑它?
1,认同西方价值观念,对西方用来拉拢前殖民地有榜样作用。
2,用来遏制中国。
为何您说澳大利亚矿工年薪10万那个贴让人泼冷水?应该清醒一下,别自我感觉太好,太自以为是。
西方为了平衡中国扶植印度不假,那也得印度有这个能力才行。西方国家不是善男信女,花钱扶植一个根本不给力的废物是不会做的。
印度在发展中国家里,算是搞得不错的了。这么多人口,民族语言复杂到我们难以想象,居然六十年来没有分裂和内战,其实并不容易。
当然,印度内部的乱子不少。但是,为什么这些乱子就那么乱着,始终做不大,无法造成全国性质的影响,这才是陈经的重点所在。
最近常说句话,活下来的说道理,没活下来的说故事。给你一个链接,是故事还是道理你自己琢磨。
http://www.talkcc.com/article/3214633
我下面在这个链接里的回复是这样的:
那次可以说 [ 葡萄 ] 于:2010-12-23 21:11:30 复:3214633 总阅:333751
是我做的最好的一次策划,也是最危险的一次。
那次策划,无意中让朋友家拿到的利益,实际涉及所谓的战略布局。拿到了,某派系势力范围内一直没有拿下的利益。时候,朋友家被这个派系打压。几乎一度离开大陆市场。直到这个派系作为顶梁柱的大佬去世,这个事情才算让他们回到大陆的转折。而我自己也莫名其妙的卷进去,不是有人拉了把,也不知道要如何才算收场。
我这样说,实际是在说国内竞争和博弈的一个层面。在我看来,利益从来都不是什么温情脉脉的东西。在你问我那些为什么之后,我写过这样的帖子。
http://www.talkcc.com/article/3220093
在这个帖子里,我背后咨询的逻辑很简单。现在在将来不远的时间内鼓励部分行业内的恶性竞争。冠冕堂皇的理由是,不远的将来加入WTO承诺的全面开放的时间就要到了。如果连国内企业都斗不过,那么外资进来迟早也是个死。不那么冠冕堂皇的理由是,利用产业与技术的升级换代,淘汰一批企业。尤其是和政治利益纠缠过深的企业。特别是在土地财政问题中,携手中外利益和中央土地财政政策叫板的企业。这个就是兼并重组的潜台词。所以会有,游戏安排中,一些被并购的企业被只有他们资产十分之一甚至更小的企业并购了。不管你怎么猜测,这些游戏在我身边的例子不少。那不过是所谓很多人鄙视的大棋论的一部分。
而就在前段时间,有人就这样斥责过这样的所谓的大棋。而在斥责中她自称是随时可以离开的,并可怜那些不能离开的人。这样的逻辑或者自得,你其实可以在这个论坛或者这个楼中频频得见。这样的人,包括你提到过的人在讨论国家财政坏账时候,用一句不就是修改账目的事情么。这样的思路,和他们主张的民营的灵活是一脉相承的。而至今,我在很多讨论里都只讨论这样灵活背后的所谓效率和财富的创造能力。在我看来,这样的灵活注定是要走进你说的那些为什么么。
为什么,在我看来。这样的逻辑不仅把财务问题看做是一种随时可以变化的游戏。还可以看做,很多人一贯支持的,只要股票好地产好就是经济好的一贯观点。而作为例子,即使印度有这样和那样的问题,甚至在这个国家出现30%地区在游击队活跃范围之中也坚持认为那样的国家是强大的和有信仰力量的。所以,他们在相信这个世界没有危机,今天中国的经济模式没有问题,以及通胀预期是忽悠后,他们相信改革以来曾经的所有或者形成与改革中的那些什么是在今天会被固化的。并拒绝相信其他可能或者改变的存在。即使这样的改变已经落在了行政架构你,落在了经济分配中,并在所谓的技术升级中开始新一轮的洗牌。对于他们来说,他们并不在意真实的世界发生了什么,他们在意的是他们相信的什么并把这些升华为不容怀疑的东西,这样的相信已经可以说是一种信仰。一旦这样的信仰形成,往往是伴随他们终身的。
所以,你在为什么而辩解的时候,你有没有这样想过,他们信仰的是不是符合社会发展的需要。就拿他们中某个人在本楼里对我所说的评价认为是一种鼓动人背后闹革命的癔症。而我这里只想说,我说的这些不过来自一些事件本身的评估。也因为这样的评估,改变甚至来的比我想的早的多。一些人曾经声称,他们会对这样的改变而用生命去捍卫他们的信仰。而对于这些,我刚才在一个帖子试图讨论的乐清事件的影响中没有说的话我在这里说一下。
这个事情,实际被视为在改革中某些利益在博弈中的必然行为。这些利益,和你要辩护的与我前面说的有信仰的那些人实际都被看做那种圈在特定范围自生自灭的范畴。不管他们怎么定义自己,起码在他们能影响更多人的生活,或者干预社会有更多能力之前,他们的利益甚至都不曾在架构设计中予以多少考虑。
http://www.talkcc.com/article/3223262
(上面的链接是关于乐清话题的)
而如果你把我视为体制内的一部分。我只能很遗憾的多,很多年前他们叫我站队的时候我就拒绝了。我更愿意作为一个独立的个体,来观察与分析我有兴趣的问题。为了这样观察的独立性我拒绝了那种站队,为此我没有后悔过。
而同样,你为之辩解的团体中他们的分野在我身边也不断的在发生。他们包括,即使面对某利益团体压迫与打击最后还是通过实业,为国家争取更多的利益最终得以翻身的那个家族。他们的过去是故事还是道理你自己琢磨。还有,我身边一些做生意的朋友,即使在资金链最困难的时候也没有去炒地炒股,专心本业,现在正在忙自己公司上市的例子。还有,一些浙江朋友,在危机来临的时候,接手作为行业领头人的公司,在旧老板认为没有希望与利润的领域,用自己的技术创新与技术升级,以每个月最少30%的增长率在短时间里让公司资产增加几十倍(超过30倍,原来的老板去炒地了)。即使是这样的企业,有次我旁听他们股东之间的讨论,他们的话题是:他们现在的企业在未来两年,现有产品将不可避免全部淘汰的时候,他们如何抓住他们涉及领域升级换代的新机遇。他们在上个月提出的方案之一,他们的家人也为之惊异:为某些国家设计有是四个机卡手机方案,甚至可以满足更多更古怪技术要求来嵌入这些新兴国家市场。他们每天为这些工作方案工作到9:00甚至更晚。(无论多晚我给他们公司送合同,他们都会在加班)
你告诉我,你现在还有什么要讨论的么。我只想说,每个什么都有自己的选择。每个什么都为自己的选择承担后果或享受利益。
然后么,活下来的说道理没有活下来的说故事。不管你我相信什么,生活始终会继续下去的。
另外刚写个涉及地产的帖子,你参考:
http://www.talkcc.com/article/3223491
即便修改游戏规则.
社会财富的法人化,是各国资本主义发展到垄断阶段后的普遍现象。
或者说,只要是资本主义,都不可避免追寻资本永续经营之路。而法人化,公众化则是这个追求过程中难以避免的环节。简单点说,不管是谁,不能持续经营资本了,就被扔掉。上至老板,下至民工,这个没有多少区别。
我们之所以没有印度那种超稳定的社会层级结构,要拜两千年陈胜吴广的振臂一呼“王侯将相,宁有种乎”,几十年前的WG更是人这种追求平等的基因深深根植在国人的内心。