主题：【原创】标普宣布美国政府资信评级降低至AA+ -- 种植园土
非专业的想法,华尔街倒逼华盛顿,不能再借钱了,得干活.
剪羊毛什么的真可以吃永远?就算中国股市圈再多的钱,只是延缓经济的寿命,生产力的提升才是经济的王道.老是在金融资产打转转,能有多大出息?羊毛是利益,也是毒药.华尔街会不懂这个道理?美国之所所以成为美国,不是它把别人踩下去,而是自身实力的提升,这才是美国梦,恶霸是成不了超级大国的.
中国别说现在了，春秋战国甚至更早的时候就是阴谋论的天下；看大唐西域记，中国人狡诈的名声早就传播在外了。
中国人喜欢把事情往复杂了想，很多时候的确想多了、不过总归比想少了强，傻人有傻福这类事情毕竟还是少。
我一直觉得，西方人嘴上说人性本恶、其实看世界很天真；中国人讲人性本善、但是防范心态很重（总的来说中国人的善良程度远远高于西方人、阴险程度也远远高于西方人）。
哈哈哈
西方的阴谋论，如果真的有、那么在中国，我看转不开。
因为，比当面一套背后一套，这个世界上没有人是中国人的对手；而阴谋论里，这是非常非常重要的技能。而且中国人想的通常很长远，比如说大公国际竟然是80年代就开始搞、那时如果我们看中国搞这个不是吃饱了撑的吗（这也从另外一个角度证明了GCD在复兴中华这个目标上一直都是延续的）。往往情况是，明明对方挺简单的、中国人却想的很复杂；这个总体来说是好事，有时候可能会吃点亏、但是大体上说想得多总比想的少要好太多。比如说很多人觉得江朱和胡温差别多么大多么大、邓和毛差别多么大多么大，我现在看其实是一回事，目标一致、不同的时期采取的手段不同罢了——敢于目标不一致的，基本离下台不远了。
另外，经济学的模型永远是模型、它不可能解决所有的问题，因为经济学需要了解人性，但这个没法标准化量化，只能靠经验去蒙；我觉得，经济问题对内无非是人民群众生老病死衣食住行、对外就是前面这些加上军事；西方搞这个模型那个模型、跳不出数学公式去，而中国人与天地于地斗与人斗、成天想的是算计人、比数学公式复杂多了。何况中国对各种问题并不是不知道、也有应手，像是你担心的过剩产能，中国正在搞拉动内需，这个内需不是我们明明有6个T国家还逼迫我们买10个，而是水利/交通运输/军工等等各种需求，做T的企业可能会倒闭、但是会有其他的产业起来的，这个不全是GCD主观意志决定的、而是中国发展到现在的必然结果（当然我坚信GCD早就给中国设定了路线图、只是灵活度很大可能根据实际情况做调整）——将来军事上足以自保（包括海外利益）、内部循环顺畅、外部就算欧美死绝了跟亚非拉照样做生意（人民币换资源、劳务/成品换资源等等）、再想办法发现新的可持续的增长方式（比如说太空资源啥的；光是银河系的资源就极大丰富呀，全地球每个人分一个恒星大概都够！当然这个比较扯、我作为佛教徒瞎想的），这个不是挺好么。
当然中国也有很多很多的问题，比如在海外搞工程亏本什么的，可见管理方面还是有漏洞（其实那么NB的华为当年也干过这种事情，风险管控不到位）；但我相信现在的中国能跨越这些问题，因为中国人为了解决问题达到目标有种"no boundary"的作风、办法总比问题多，而西方人我不敢说非常了解，但是对于IT行业是比较知道的，总的来说比中国人僵化的多、教条主义的多，这还是IT呢，传统行业估计更是这样。总体上说，总是有种“这不是上个世纪相同年代时中国和西方反过来吗？”这种感觉。
如果西方人（或者说美国资本家s）抱着这些模型等着中国送上门、那就等着好了，我才不信货币战争的作者都看出来的东西又腹黑又辩证临危时又极其抱团的中国人看不出来。
穷人没钱消费，富人怎么继续赚钱？
钱在资本主义下其实就是个道具，表面上看无论穷富都是为钱奔波，实际上是在大家的觉悟都还没高到共产主义的阶段，被钱这根胡萝卜诱惑，投入到创造社会精神文明和物质文明的生产活动中去。
每个人无论穷富，都会有生活必须的基本消费，再往上随着钱的增多还会有其他小资，乃至大资的消费。挣的钱不够消费的是穷人；挣的钱多过消费的是富人。富人多出来的钱就想去投资，投资是为了再赚钱。投资什么才能才赚钱呢？投资到有人消费的行当就能再赚钱。
资本主义的核心问题就是承认资本在分配中的地位，也就是有钱投资的富人在产品分配环节总能占且要多占一块。所以除非资本主义的经济增长高于富人（资本家）敛财的速度，否则迟早有一天钱就都赚到富人手里去了。这时候穷人没钱消费了，而资本家也因为没人消费而赚不到钱了——这就是经济危机了。
以前经济危机的时候是流行凯恩斯主义，政府举债扩大投入；现在是靠联储的QE1，2，3。。。其实核心都是一件事，就是天外飞仙引进一笔新钱，倒近因为缺钱而不能运行的经济体系里面，让大家眼前又都有胡萝卜，让大家都动起来。这些招数都是救急不救穷的，只要这个资本主义的分配方式没有转变，等到新钱历经几年被资本家瓜分完毕，经济危机就又会重现。
这个问题怎么解决？一个是搞共产主义；再一个就是利用税收提高对富人的征税反哺穷人。如果税收体系能足够劫富济贫，我想最少经济危机的间隔会长一些。
相比世界上的其他一些国家，美国政府算是有些担当的，对穷人要管医疗，要管福利，要管养老。。。不过，民主国家都这样，没有承诺好处，谁会选你上台？但是这个现政府的执行力不够，只能许愿给好处，不能确定找到钱的来处。所以被降级也是合理的，早晚这个政府的某些承诺会不能兑现。
对任何一个资本主义经济体来说，对富人征税来补贴穷人都是这个经济体可持续性发展的关键。没有这个机制，经济危机就要隔几年来一次。
对富人征税，如果条件许可的话，可以大幅提高个人所得税，采取超额累进税率，收入越高，税率越高；同时降低公司税率。鼓励富人投资，鼓励富人把收益留存在公司。一方面鼓励这些钱继续参与社会经济活动，另一方面把个人财富和公司生存状态捆绑的更紧密一些，适当降低这些公司参与高风险经济活动的冲动，减少类似雷曼破产这类事件的发生。
扯下所有的遮羞布，美国和他老人家那个神话破到底掉。
我讨论的主题是关于美国的，中国富人的税率实在太低了，但美国富人的税率不低了。美国是第15个税率最高的国家了：
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/15-most-heavily-taxed-countries-in-the-world/
美国跟中国完全不一样，这个社会找不到工作不是机会的问题，而是懒惰的问题。1100万没有福利/医疗保险/社会服务的非法移民活的好好的，还往老家墨西哥寄钱几百亿美元，为什么美国的那么多年轻人找不到工作？为什么报道上很多农场的蔬菜/水果都烂掉了？因为找不到工人来摘。
当然，对于实在没有劳动能力的人，确实应该给刚够生活的资助，而不应该把年轻人都养起来。消费的主力是中产阶级，美国的大问题是中产阶级的萎缩。
老祖宗说的"害人之心不可有，防人之心不可无"
那是相当有智慧的啊
美国普通人如何痛恨过度的福利制度
主贴:
Tea Party 'tantrum' not good for nation
1:30 PM, Aug. 5, 2011 |
66Comments
http://www.stargazette.com/article/20110808/VIEWPOINTS03/108080309/Tea-Party-tantrum-not-good-nation
Thanks to the Tea Party. For them, it's my way or the highway — does that remind you of your children's temper tantrums? Well, it worked!
Forget the poor, the elderly and the unemployed, while the wealthiest continue to enjoy their quality of life at the expense of the rest of us.
God help us.
The Rev. and Mrs. Robert Adkins
Elmira
评论：
http://www.stargazette.com/comments/article/20110808/VIEWPOINTS03/108080309/Tea-Party-tantrum-not-good-nation
Score: 2
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Anarchy1984
12:20 AM on August 8, 2011
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What do you mean by the poor? Do you mean the welfare recipients that refuse to work and pop out new welfare babies by the bushel? By old do you mean those too stupid to save up for retirement like the rest of us have too? I think that you should use your tax free status to take care of these poor, old people for the rest of us. Because I for one am sick of my meager paycheck getting less and less as I stand behind those "poor" with their W.I.C and EBT cards getting free stuff, while all the while having enough money left over for high priced cigs and beer. The working people of this country are getting drained, not the rich. So be god like and take care of the poor and suffering. I don't want too anymore.
3 replies
Score: 2
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efaer
4:52 AM on August 8, 2011
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I am blown away by what I am hearing. The only politicians who stood by their principles, stood by the people who voted for them and stood for fiscal responsibility for the rest of us, are being lambasted. The only way to take care of anyone is to take care of this problem of spending more than you bring in. Perhaps you believe China will take better care of them?
1 reply
Score: 7
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1Rangerrick
7:18 AM on August 8, 2011
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AMEN and Anarchy he isn't talking about the welfare people, we all know they're bums. He's referring to the guy working two jobs to try and feed his family but it just keeps getting harder and harder. With companies like NYSEG who is out of control the state does NOTHING about it. Other than that the City School District is finding out that spending more than you have is not a good thing.. sooner or later the bills come in and have to be paid. And I agree I'm tired of working my backside off to take care of people who are just going to sit there and do NOTHING to help themselves. I was in the store yesterday and watched 2 people spend 40 dollars in food stamps to buy subs, soda and a ton of candy. THAT is NOT what this was meant for but hey as long as you don't have to work, why not? This city is getting to the point where there's almost a 50/50 population. 50% working the other living off of their hard work... sooner or later that number is going to get higher then what is everyone going to do? By then I will be out of this hole they call NY.
2 replies
Score: 1
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JEButler
8:15 AM on August 8, 2011
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I don't see masses of people living under bridges around here. In fact they got an increase at a time the workers are being raped of what they did have. The elderly are being hit harder by Obamas finanicial actions then any others watching their savings waste away. As for the wealthy, implement more then a fair tax on select individuals anymore is stealing!! Just because it is a politician taking it out of his pocket doesn't make it right. Give a helping hand where needed but get them off my back because I am NOT their retirement plan!!
Easy to want what others have. Problem is it is never enough and doesn't last long giving it to people who will just waste it away anyway. Today they want what the wealthy have, tomorrow what the upper middle class have, then the middle class. They won't stop till they get it all and in the end they will still want andf have nothing!! The Soviet Union found that out, and it corrected it, and they are now warning us noty to go there!!
JB
2 replies
Score: 6
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elmiradan
8:46 AM on August 8, 2011
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Boy are you guys missing the point.Nobody like lazy people who won't work or don't try to better themselves.But that is not our problem right now we have a huge new underclass called the "working poor" . Most food stamp recipients are the working poor who don't make enough to make ends meet.I would love to see as much anger vented towards the American corporations and the super wealthy who pay less of the percentage of taxes than most of us do. We need to fix both ends of the welfare systems in our country social welfare and corporate welfare.
1 reply
Score: 1
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justthefactsplz
9:10 AM on August 8, 2011
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notfox wrote- "You are describing poverty, a step below poor."
Why don't you point what, in Ararchy1984's writing, describes poverty.
Poverty is not having the basic necessities for life food, shelter, clothes and clean drinking water. Not having cigarettes, beer, chips, a Game Boy or flat screen do not qualify as undicators of poverty.
1 reply
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justthefactsplz
9:31 AM on August 8, 2011
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As for the seniors- they paid in to Social Security and should be entitled to get their pensions. The military are on security call 24/7 and earn their pay every day. Both the military and the seniors are among the last groups that would have lost benefits- between them they are a huge voting block in this country.
The Democrat's used scare tactics to try and chokehold the Republicans into submission, and that is tantamount to attempting psychological terrorism enmasse.
I can't imagine any president or government body, especially this one, cutting pay for active duty soldiers. There are enough military who don't agree with the direction this president is leading our country that he should be worried. Political coups typically start by leaders trying to wield too much power, taking away liberties and ticking off enough of the military that their allegiance and moral obligation to the people supercedes their comittment to the leader.
2 replies
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crookedeye
9:36 AM on August 8, 2011
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Tea Party Tantrum? Fits pretty good if we're speaking of three and four year old-s playing tea party on a cardboard box -but here we are talking about grown adults, church going, god fearing -primarily white Evangelical know nothings, the hard core Bush-Chaney and company followers/puppet types.
The tea party is now America's bushy smelly armpit as politicians go. They are American's with misplaced arrogance and no brains or common sense to keep in the main stream of republican politics, but republicans they are and let there be no doubt about that. Also let there be no doubt that with tea party ingrates driving America to the brink of utter stupidity over a debt limit that is as routine as it gets in Washington, has mis-handled the entire occasion soo badly -that resulted in our country being down-graded world-wide.
The police always say, its always a few bad cops that make them all look bad. The Republican's are attempting to apply the same layer of non-sense between themselves and the tea-party but- like the police can't, neither can the republicans level such a misdirecting lie in a believable fashion that the public will ever accept.
The tea party know-nothings are the best thing to happen for Democrat's that's politically helpful in a while. I'm rather enjoying watching the conservative' bible trumpeters consume their own in every form of media.
The Tea Party - the conservative RED headed toe-tapping step-children in the room.
Tantrum anyone? lol
2 replies
Score: 1
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AmericanCEO
9:42 AM on August 8, 2011
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Here we go again..
"From each according to his abilities. To each according to his need." - Karl Marx ..
All good Communism still believe this nonsense.
When will liberals understand that there is no answer to those that will not work to better themselves.
The Tea Party Republicans are the only ones that I see that keep their word to those that voted them in.
For the rest of you... "Who is John Galt?"
6 replies
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crookedeye
11:36 AM on August 8, 2011
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Tea Party Tantrum will now cost every American so much -in so many ways, -especially during those moments around millions of American shrinking dinner tables.
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/08/08/why-congress-and-sp-deserve-each-other/?hpt=hp_t2
Score: 1
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karoden
1:54 PM on August 8, 2011
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The Good Reverend from his Bully Pulpit says the Tea Party motto is " My way Or The Highway ??? Hey Rev how about rephrasing the Tea Party motto to say " We Have Had Enough " of the congressional motto of " Because We Say So ". Place the blame where it should be, at the feet of congress and the White House occupants for the past 50 years.
The Jerks in D.C. have spent us into poverty in order to insure their re-elections.
And let me ask Reverend ??? By using your title as a minister of the Gospel is that intended to lend credence to your opinion of the Tea Party ? I respect your beliefs and the profession you have chosen Reverend, but please excuse me if I form my own personal political opinion.
So Be It.
3 replies
Score: -1
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retiredgysgt
2:07 PM on August 8, 2011
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The S + P stated that we must cut 4 trillion dollars. After a lot of fighting the tea party could only get two trillion dollars. The S+ P stated that because of the lack of political will to cut spending and the turmoil it has caused they down graded us. Obama says its Bush's falt and then he blamed it on the tea party and then the Republicans. I guess that old saying is true. You have to do something in order to get blamed. Based upon that saying, Obama will never be blamed.
3 replies
Score: 4
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Rookkey
2:09 PM on August 8, 2011
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It wasn't the Tea Party that set up a $14 billion dollar tax-payer funded slush fund for GM investors.
4 replies
Score: 2
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SacredHonor
2:56 PM on August 8, 2011
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So are 95 House Democrats “terrorists” like the Tea Party Members of Congress? What about Bernie Sanders and the rest of those Liberal, Marxist's and their "tantrums" and "hissy fits."
Well, "Reverend." I suppose you don't remember last Novembers election do you? If you forgot, we'll remind you next November when more Tea Party candidates win the Senate and Congress. Obama will be out on his a-- and you "Reverend" can go sing kumbaya with "Reverend Jeremiah "God d--- America" Wright!
Score: 3
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SacredHonor
6:26 PM on August 8, 2011
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Mission Statement
The impetus for the Tea Party movement is excessive government spending and taxation. Our mission is to attract, educate, organize, and mobilize our fellow citizens to secure public policy consistent with our three core values of Fiscal Responsibility, Constitutionally Limited Government and Free Markets.
Simple.
Score: 1
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karoden
6:28 PM on August 8, 2011
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Speaking of Tantrums being thrown ?? During this whole Budget Fiasco the most Tantrum throwing I saw was by Mr Obama, Senator Harry Reid, and the Liberal Left who were aided and abetted by the RINO Party Members. Talk about " My Way Or The Highway ". Oh and I almost forgot to give the Biggest Congressional Cry Baby credit for his frothing at the mouth Tantrum againts the Tea Party. I refer to the Self Proclaimed War Hero from Arizona name John McCain.
Let me ask the Good Reverend how he describes a man who refuses to go along with anything less than a Blank Check or unlimited Credit Card so he can keep spending the country into extinction ? Especially when that man and his wife are living in splendor, occupying a huge white mansion and taking trips and junkets all over the world at the American Taxpayers expense ?
And we won't even begin to list the current and ex members of congress who didn't pay Income Taxes on millions of dollars of income, because they didn't know they were required by law to do so. And many of those Tax Evading congressional menbers are Attorney's At Law who claimed Ignorance of the law, and are allowed to walk free.
And you Good Reverend to so piously point your finger and voice accusations at Tea Party member's who are only demanding Fiscal responibility. Sounds somewhat like a TANTRUM to me Reverend.
Score: 2
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flustered1
7:31 PM on August 8, 2011
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Who's at fault according to president obama, lets see so far he has stated The republicans, The tea party, Conservatives, Congress, the Tsunami and Arab spring are all at fault, A tsunami really.! So say the military are a fault - really they are merely taking orders, Oh by the way in the past 10 years the 2 wars have cost us 1 Trillion dollars, Ever notice Obama is not accepting any of the fault, believing that he is above the law!!!!!!!!!!!
If it wasn't for the tea party forcing these issues the so called elite in Washington would have raised the debt limit and told you to your smiling blind eyes that all is great and you can keep on going with your special life. In the mean time they would run up greater debt that there would be no chance to ever recover from, As it sits now they have a bogus agreement in effect that Obama is loving because it is running us further into debt with countries like china. And he does not have to support any further actions that the agreement put into place.
We have let Washington spend our children's, children's money, They have spent money on congress's and the senates special needs for the past 50 years with no fear, Yes we need Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and yes welfare. But those programs are fraught with waste fraud and abuse, they need to be fixed. We need a real Immigration bill passed forcing all of the illegals back home. We need to list the Drug cartels as Terrorist organizations, that would fix it so the military can actively be used to shut them down.
2 replies
SacredHonor
1:02 AM on August 9, 2011
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Face it! The wprld welfare society is collapsing right in front of our eyes. Question is, what's next? Liberty or tyranny? Jefferson and Madison? Or, Obama and Saul Alinsky?
难道逆向和平演变开始了？
美国富人的税率可能您觉得已经很高了，但是从经济活动的表现来看，从美国政府不断攀升的赤字来看，还不够。从长期的平均水平来看，要是能够做到把富人的收入税收后降到中产，穷人的收入税收补贴之后涨到中产，这个资本主义经济体运行才可能会相对稳定。
我这里说的富人、穷人、中产定义不是很严谨，算是闲谈聊天水平的。因为要是按照我前面的帖子的对富人、穷人的简单分类来说，您所说的中产阶级其实是算穷人，那些领受福利救济的，因为基本上没有消费能力，连穷人都算不上。
就像您所说的那样，“消费的主力是中产阶级，美国最大的问题是中产阶级萎缩”。中产阶级萎缩表象，实质就是穷人没钱消费了。
我想再重新强调一下，对富人征税来补贴穷人是资本主义经济可持续性发展的关键。征这个税，不仅是对穷人有好处，也是对富人，乃至整个资本主义世界有好处，这是一个刚性的需要。
给穷人是福利还是机会，那是把钱拿回来以后的事情，重要的是要先从富人那里把钱拿回来。拿钱的标准是不对富人的消费有重大影响，发钱的目的是让穷人能有持续的消费能力。
经过最近这十几年的学习和思考，我觉得由资本主义而进入社会主义乃至共产主义确实是客观规律。而且我相信，除了专门研究这些问题的经济学家，知识分子之外，最先能接受这个事实的应该是些顶尖的大资本家。
中产阶级是交税的主力，但美国人口中的将近50%的“穷人”（你说的穷人都算不上的人）才是福利/医疗赤字的大问题。
每个社会都会有金字塔式排列的上中下阶层。以处在上层和中层的人的眼光看，不幸落在最底下的这些人可能人数众多，但是对社会的贡献甚少。甚至，就像您说的，提供给他们的福利、医疗消耗了大量的社会资源，是大量财政赤字的来源，是个大问题。
中产阶级拼命工作，是缴税的主力，却要养活这些懒人。。。真是不公道！要不让我们把这些人移除掉？好吧，假设真能移除掉了这些人——像玩俄罗斯方块一样的，结果不是消灭了这个阶层，而只能是会让另外一些中产掉下，重新形成这个阶层。当然，掉下来的那些中产就不会再抱怨自己的税付重了。