主题：【整理】zt China helpEurope, AF -- parishg
如果真是这么大数额的话，我的第一直觉是不可能。
中国如果出这么多，无非是卖掉美国国债，转买欧元。这么大的数额，即使中国愿意，美国会答应？那中国卖的国债，让谁接手？
所以，我认为基本不可能，即使有的话，数量也远远少于你所披露的
but there are moments where China's gov. made decisions shocking enough to average Joes. My jaw dropped when Wen rushed out the 4t temporary stimulus plan in early 2009.
Rather than temporarily depressing the housing bubble, Wen created a permanent ticking housing bomb for each average Chinese back in China.
Have you asked why so many rich middle class in China are now rushing for emmigration? I know Canada immigration dept. was flooded by applications from Chinese... trust me.
犯美债同样问题
exchanged, WHERE Europeans can get money to pay back in RMB??
Q2. Given the large trade surplus China enjoyed against Europe, WHERE Europeans can get RMB to pay back loan in RMB?
If RMB is freely exchangeable under a set of new regime, then China is for sure to experience fast capital outflow. And China might soon face another financial crisis of itself.
It is catch-22 for China with this funny proposal. You should immediately figure out the proposer of this plan is brainless. The plan itself will make the system unstable at the beginning--and the default of loan almost 100% certain.
Historical comparison:
America lent money in USD to Europe after WWI and then depreciated USD in early 1930s. It enjoyed huge surplus against Europe in 1920s and early 1930 and is Europe's main creditor. BUT It passed special customs duty law to exclude European export from the US market.
Europeans asked Americans a simple question which signaled how self-contradictory Americans were: given that our export to the US market will be curtailed and we will NOT achieve net export to the US market, WHERE ARE WE GOING TO GET THE USD TO PAY back all the private and gov. loans?
Americans did not care about their self-contradiction and pushed Europeans to pay back debts, then in the end, Europe was pushed into another banking crisis in 1930s and finally ended up in war.
来借钱，避开了必须抛美债的问题。中国提供人民币，欧盟给这个债券。一定程度上把人民币国际化，可以作为中欧贸易的结算货币之一。
如果像你说的到时候还人民币他们肯定不肯啊，人民币升值预期地球人都知道吧。到时候升个百分之十几，就赶上高利贷了。。
人民币记价应该防的是, 欧洲央行最后搞量化宽松.
另外, 通过IMF, 不知道是否有抵押品?
目前, 有可能摆在台面上的条件:
(1) 开放市场
(2) 开放投资(冒似TG还不能很方便的投资欧洲实体经济, 谁给说说?)
Fulford最近的言论中给出了具体的名字和时间(15th Nov). N多人等着看打脸或者真相.
之所以有很多所谓内幕消息出来，是你另外帖子说的，中美金融共同体小圈子在中美两国之间都是被羡慕嫉妒恨的，所以其他的圈子的把细节想办法透露出来，让密约不秘密时候就不是约定了。
一个例子，当年李鸿章为了以夷制夷联合俄国抵御日本影响，和俄国人签订了《中俄密约》，结果密约泄露，激起各国强烈不满，最终俄国并没有拿到密约中的利益。
中国富裕起来的对于这个政府没有信心，所以争先恐后去移民。不过，历史必然证明，中国的崛起是不可阻挡的。
当然这些人的集体行为，把他们自己的阶层给逼出了中国今后的游戏圈。邓当年的 让一部分人先富起来，先富带后富共同富裕是一个政治妥协和承诺。这个阶层的人集体短视的移民了，那么这个邓当年的政治宣言事实上破产了，于是中国的改开的逻辑就不存在了。
于是重庆模式带来了中国政治左转的信号，于是移民的这些阶层注定要离开中国的政治圈，作为一个阶层，既然游戏规则制定时候他们不在，那么被剥夺利益的阶层首先是他们。当然作为个体他们是最佳选择，然而作为一个阶层集体，他们被淘汰了。
天道、人道自有规律。
看二战那段历史，你会以为美国人很矛盾，一会孤立主义一方面又是民主国家兵工厂。最后你发现，在这个所谓矛盾的构架中，美国人利用自己国内的所谓矛盾，始终在对外尤其对欧洲方面保持着灵活性，然后用自己的灵活性去最大限度获取实际利益。这种手法，从威尔逊开始就越来越纯熟了。
美国看上去没有一致声音，但是作为美国整体利益一致的。
此外，美国惊人的从错误中学习和恢复的能力目前还没有任何国家比得上。可怕的对手。
无法评估结果，所以还是慢慢等吧，总有一天水到渠成，大家各安其位。
如果中美欧三方中两方准备在给第三方搞经济MAD，而第三方不自知。那也太惊悚了。
顺便，我现在就在某欧盟国家，没感觉一般人有啥爱国主义，希腊人西班牙人都挺happy的，意大利人永远happy。
这成了把金融核弹往自己头上扔了。。。
on other topics, but maybe not financial issues.
人民币记价应该防的是, 欧洲央行最后搞量化宽松.
--currency swap is used to solve TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY problem. Fed of US did that in 2008 to help out Europeans and Koreans.
Gov. loans and then conversion of those loans through SPV into EQUITY INVESTMENT in French banks help to address LT SOLVENCY problem.
very different issues. Please do not take it as an offense, but you mix up two issues.