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主题:【原创】美国海军核潜艇力量的未来挑战 -- 晨枫

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家园 俄罗斯的问题是内行走的走了死的死了,队伍不好带了

能不滑坡吗?军工行业是有传承的。一断代再想恢复起来就很难了。

家园 花,三叉戟D5有过发射失败记录

点看全图

外链图片需谨慎,可能会被源头改

A D-5 Trident II missile spins out of control after being launched from the nuclear-powered strategic missile submarine Tennessee (SSBN-734), 21 Mar 1989.

家园 已经断代20多年了,再要拾起来难了

中国文革十年,中间断代了,用了20年才恢复起来,还是借经济高速发展的东风。俄罗斯要恢复,难度就更大了。

家园 那是三叉戟II D5最后一次发射失败

研制过程中试射约30次,其中失败5次,1989年8月是最后一次失败。刚才查了一下Lockheed网站,从1989.8到2012.4总共23年间,有142次连续成功记录。

要是中国有那么10条泡在中太平洋,即使每条只有20发射筒,每个导弹配3个核弹头,600个核弹头在手,貌似就不用买那么多美债,台湾估计也会早日对大陆投怀送抱了。

http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/news/press-releases/2012/may/0531-ss-FBM.html

SUNNYVALE, Calif., May 31, 2012 – The U.S. Navy conducted successful test flights April 14 and 16 of four Trident II D5 Fleet Ballistic Missiles (FBMs) built by Lockheed Martin [NYSE: LMT]. The Navy launched two unarmed missiles each day from the submerged submarine USS Maryland (SSBN 738) in the Atlantic Ocean.

These tests marked the 139th, 140th, 141st and 142st successful test flights of the Trident II D5 missile since design completion in 1989 – a reliability record unmatched by any other large ballistic missile or space launch vehicle.

家园 照片所示是第一次实艇发射失败

and the first submarine launch was attempted by Tennessee, the first D-5 ship of the Ohio class, in March 1989.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trident_II

就用维基百科吧,美国敏感网站我一般不去,免得留下案底:)

还是这艘“田纳西”号,年底又进行了一次发射试验,发射试验成功。

商榷:时间起算点不应从1989年3月算,3月那次发射试验没有成功。

家园 我看的是这个记录,你看看准确否

我数了数,共5次失败。不过我看漏了一项,1989共有两次失败,3月21日一次,8月15日一次。8月15日的失败应是最后一次。

Trident D-5 Chronology

1987 January 15 - . 15:25 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-1.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1987 March 17 - . 17:25 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-2.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1987 April 30 - . 20:44 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-3.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1987 June 12 - . 22:45 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-5.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1987 July 20 - . 20:45 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-6.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1987 September 8 - . 22:01 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-4.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1987 October 6 - . 17:02 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-8.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1987 December 11 - . 13:26 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-10.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1988 January 21 - . 10:08 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-9. FAILURE: Failure.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN.

1988 April 7 - . 04:59 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-11.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1988 April 28 - . 04:52 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-12.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1988 May 26 - . 02:07 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-7.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1988 July 7 - . 22:38 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-13. FAILURE: Failure.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 20 km (12 mi).

1988 August 27 - . 20:04 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-14.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1988 September 19 - . 17:44 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-15. FAILURE: Failure.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 20 km (12 mi).

1988 November 7 - . 16:30 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-18.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1988 December 16 - . 12:49 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-17.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1989 January 9 - . 10:52 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-19.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1989 January 26 - . 09:07 GMT - . Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: Cape Canaveral LC46. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. LV Configuration: Trident D-5 D5X-20.

Research and development launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1989 March 21 - . 16:20 GMT - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. FAILURE: Failure.

PEM-1 operational test launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 0 km ( mi).

1989 August 2 - . 15:00 GMT - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

PEM-2 operational test launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1989 August 15 - . 21:10 GMT - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5. FAILURE: Failure.

PEM-4 operational test launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 0 km ( mi).

1989 December 4 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

PEM-5 operational test launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1989 December 13 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

PEM-11 operational test launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1989 December 15 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

PEM-3 operational test launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 January 15 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

PEM-7 operational test launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 January 16 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

PEM-6 operational test launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 February 12 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

DASO-1 - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 February 12 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

PEM-8 test launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 March 12 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 735. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

DASO-3 demonstration and shakedown operations launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 September 26 - . 15:55 GMT - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 735. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

DASO-4 demonstration and shakedown operations launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 November 3 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

CET - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 November 3 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

CINC Evaluation Test launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 November 3 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

CET - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 November 3 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 734. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

CET - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

1990 November 28 - . Launch Site: ETR Launch Area. Launch Platform: SSBN 736. LV Family: Trident. Launch Vehicle: Trident D-5.

DASO-5 demonstration and shakedown operations launch - . Nation: USA. Agency: USN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

家园 商榷:还是起算点问题

从1989.8到2012.4总共23年间,有142次连续成功记录

1989年8月那次发射试验失败,所以连续发射成功的记录,似应从年底那次为起算点更好些。

家园 中国用弹道导弹打航母的制导技术相比如何?

发现从防空导弹用高抛弹道打低空目标,尤其是主动雷达制导时,到用弹道导弹打航母,再到用洲际弹道导弹打发射井,目标的机动性是下降的。说不上什么更难?

家园 没错。

不过你说89年3月21日第一次发射也是对的。根据前面的记录,1989年3月21日之前的发射序号是x01-x20,这个x表示还处于研发状态。但之后就是正式服役了。

三叉戟I(C4)和三叉戟II(D5)差别很大,基本上是两种完全不同的导弹。三叉戟II(D5)从87试射到89服役,这个速度还是非常快的。里根时代确实是美海军的黄金时代。

不过今天中国人的大航海时代也慢慢拉开帷幕了。

家园 没有制空权的潜艇很难生存。

对方可用无人机监控海面,一有发射行为即予以攻击。

家园 不如这样...

就造两个,让后让他们成功捞去。一个编号00001,一个编号10000。剩下的事情嘛。

家园 这只是对于近、浅海活动的战术潜艇而言

战略核潜艇潜伏深,射程远,大洋上随便哪个点钻出来就打,无人机监控范围再大也无奈。

家园 3000公里半径半圆扇形的面积是1500万平方公里。

用3000架无人机自可监控,这些无人机花三百亿美元当可拿下。

家园 在役装备里只有三叉戟D5采用了变质心控制技术

目前市面上有不少洲际导弹在二级关机、舱体分离后还可以进行制导修正,一般都采用星光制导,个别洲际弹在头舱分离后仍可依靠GPS一类的被动接收进行小幅修正;但真正再入后还能进行修正的洲际弹就只有三叉戟D5的弹头了。

白杨M的单弹头体积相对D5来说过于巨大,中段飞行时比较容易被探测到,所以弹头上装载了小推力姿态控制系统,依托高压气体在外太空小幅调整飞行轨迹,以期规避美军的反导拦截。白杨M的改进型论证中也引入了变质心控制技术,并成功进行了试射,原理没有问题,工程实现也不算很复杂,但有两个关键点无法突破:一,变质心对CEP的具体影响无法定量描述;美军靠上千个射击数据进行统计得出相对准确的诸元计算方法,俄军仅靠拍脑袋是算不出来的。二,裂变材料位置的变化对二次核爆的影响无法准确估计;众所周知俄国的氢弹模型是很差的,至少比TG差很多,在裂变材料位置不确定的情况下如何保证二次核爆效果对俄国来说是个相当头疼的问题。至于白杨M改进型论证引入的景象匹配雷达制导,那对战略武器来说是根本不可能采用的;本来在中段飞行时就要靠假目标、机动变轨等手段躲躲藏藏地走,谁还敢开个巨量辐射源去照地啊,这样的行为和执行夜袭任务的游击队员打开探照灯有啥区别呢?

说回再入控制技术。

在中程弹道导弹这一档次上,再入后的姿态修正还可以靠空气舵来实现,例如美军80年代装备的潘兴2,就完美地实现了高速再入后的拉起、减速、修正、俯冲等一系列动作;当年美国航空设计专家在看到其再入后飞行轨迹后基本都是目瞪口呆,心里默念“没有驾驶员就是好啊,过载放大十倍结构上都能扛过去”。但再高一档次的洲际弹道导弹就不可能再靠空气舵了,即便结构上能扛过增加了一倍多的再入速度,其舵机也不可能塞进弹头里。再加上洲际再入弹头进到大气层内后只是参考其惯性平台对累积误差进行小幅修正,根本不需要用到空气舵这种大幅调姿利器,所以稳妥可靠、简便易行的变质心控制的上位就顺理成章了。

再聊聊CEP。

至于三叉戟D5导弹为什么这么变态地追求CEP小于100米(现在看经过上千次再入数据积累,其CEP很可能已经小于30米),我认为不应该是为了常规弹头快速打击而准备的,还是为了追求核弹的高毁伤效果。

首先,洲际弹道导弹发射常规弹头这件事很可能会引起潜在对手进行核反击动员。除了美国还没人拥有完善的弹道导弹太空监控网络,俄国、TG基本都是依托地基雷达来进行战略预警的,在预测落点的能力上地基远没有天基来得准确;确实存在一种可能,美军本来就是要快速收拾一下叙利亚,结果D5的常规探头还没落地,过于紧张的、把落点误判为自己发射场的俄军已经把固定井里的白杨M射向东海岸了;为了这么一点所谓的快速打击能力而承担如此大的风险,明显不是很合算的买卖。

其次,改为常规弹头后,质量分布就会发生明显变化,CEP不能再沿用原先核弹头的宝贵数据。本来变质心技术的依托就是密度超级大的核裂变材料,核弹头时代,动块和静块都可以在设计时留出一定富裕空间,以便试验弹头采用贫铀、钨合金等等替代钚239模拟质心变化过程;现在静块换成炸药了,动块用什么东西都不可能接近钚239的密度水平吧,那就要重新设计弹头结构,设计完了还要大规模实弹射击以求得相对准确的射击诸元。这么费劲地搞定点清除武器真不如永远保持热点地区前沿存在来得高效了。

再次,即便是技术水平超牛的美国也没可能批量生产以接近第一宇宙速度触地后还能正常工作的引信,所以D5的弹头只能是定高起爆的,咱们就假定其定高能力也在50米以内(实际绝没可能);变质心控制需要的高密度材料及滑轨占据了不小的空间,剩下的地方塞满了炸药也不见得比一颗155炮弹多,一个155炮弹空爆也只能杀伤30米内的无遮蔽人员吧,碰上个钢混碉堡就没辙了;一枚价值400万美元以上的弹头才能打击出这么一点效果,太有钱了吧。可能有人会说,洲际再入弹头的动能就足够杀伤硬目标了;没错,每次试验完挖弹头的人对此深有体会,十几米下去才能找到些残片,可见动能之大;但想靠动能杀伤硬目标,至少得是CEP小于10米,还不能打击地下目标(地下掩体可以使用隔舱、沙层来有效对抗动能武器),目前D5的命中精度还达不到这个水平。

最后,由上可知D5的弹头改常规装药不应该是正常的武器发展需求,那么为什么作为一个核武器还要如此变态的追求CEP呢,原因还是为了打击敌对方洲际导弹加固井。不管是W76还是W88弹头,体积决定了其当量不太可能超过20万吨(网传W88有近50万吨当量,实际不太可能,美国的氢弹技术没比TG高那么多),还不可能钻地后延时起爆。一个定高起爆的20万吨当量核武器有多大毁伤效果呢?至少对遮蔽良好的加固井口盖不可能超过200米,要是敌方不顾及卫星侦查在井口附近修了大量卸压建筑,可能上述距离还要大幅缩减。而且按照美军核打击原则,核战争时需要摧毁的是敌对方的战争能力而不是战争潜力,大城市这种目标是不会浪费在宝贵的D5导弹上的,打击的目标大都是核武器发射场、军力集结地、交通枢纽、能源存储地等等,这类目标没有一个是大型的,都需要比较高的命中精度才能确保摧毁,所以D5的核弹头保持百米内的CEP是很有必要的。

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家园 田纳西号是第一个换装D5的,这次失利应该还算研制阶段吧

受教了,一直以为D5从研制阶段就没失利过呢,看来只看TG的材料是不行的。看样子像是一方向伺服机构卡死导致喷管不动了,所以一直转圈。3月21日试射失利,当年就完成改进试射成功服了现役,看来不会是什么大问题,当然美帝的水平也确实够高的。

以前一直盛传美帝的弹道导弹都没有自毁系统,我还不太相信,毕竟装上自毁系统能大幅提升核潜艇的自身安全,虽然可靠性上稍有降低但还是值得的,毕竟炸不到目标也比毁了老巢强。看了这张图才知道真没自毁系统啊,不然第一个半圆没转完就该爆炸了;美帝这种天天鼓吹个人利益的国家也知道为了大目标牺牲小群体,佩服佩服。

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有趣有益,互惠互利;开阔视野,博采众长。
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