主题：国债负利率的日本，越借钱政府赚得越多，当然不怕花钱 -- forger

墨虎's fallacy posts is about a subject of worth of tons of books;

长远看, CNY is much more bullish than JPY, for the obvious reasons;

the too obvious things are often likely fallacies;

"长远看, CNY more bullish vs JPY", can you provide a operational model for chairman X based on that kind of people's daily stuff?

can you as a trader, investor, a business man make decisions based on that stuff?

how 长远 is 长远? if we can't define or quantify it, then it is useless, fallacies suspicious, because it does not provide any new information, and therefore valueless;

1.

as said, TG picked up soviet union version of Marxism as their "logic model" at right time, right place, and it worked out hugely well for TG.

Marxism, Lennism actually "correctly" exposed the disequilibrium nature of capitalism, so did Keynesian & alike other white economists, human system as an open dissipative system is fundamentally unstable, part of reasons human brain consumes most of human system's energy in a struggle to deal with this inherent volatility, as an individual or as a group;

still, in retrospect, Marxism, Lennism are more likely a fallacy ideology, because it did really contribute any new information to the humanity, its 砸烂旧世界 solution to fix the problem of capitalism is obviously more harmful than helpful to human system as a whole;

china in long term will more likely do better than japan, and neither of them will fall apart as "volatility" may have suggested, and china's survival and growth in future will be related less and less to Marxism & Lennism.

and again, 长远看 is a fallacy, "china will do well" is a fallacy as well, because it does not tell you any information about "china will do well relative to whom"? and how to get there? at all.

2.

how to get there? it looks like US is trying to make this AI economy fly off

changshou：几何直观地介绍广义相对论的时空以及大爆炸模型 （0） 2013-07-03 19:23:56

a very good series

柯西超曲面,"全局双曲的时空 存在整体的坐标时间" [ 晓兵 ] 于:2013-07-03 19:23:56 复:3674028

物理"因果结构存在"=柯西超曲面=全局双曲的时空 存在整体的坐标时间"

"如果有一个 这样的整体的坐标时间 我们就有无穷多的其他的 整体的坐标时间。这是因为我们可以把观察者们的世界线 作连续的形变（只要形变幅度不大 就仍然是类时的）。

这类时空 有整体的坐标时间和 对应于（该坐标时间的）某一时刻的空间部分（柯西超曲面）。于是 我们可以说 全局双曲的时空是 柯西超曲面随坐标时间演化而成的。"

that tells us, as an individual or a group, we all get a share of this 柯西超曲面 related volatility, period;

and how to reduce that volatility consumption of our energy, is often critical, or 出身未捷身先死 长使英雄泪满襟;

in the past of not too long ago, human beings used to murder each other in tons of blood to figure out whose political ideology religious view are fallacies, not any more, now human social science 证伪 process is much less bloody, more of financial market 证伪, then you have 2008 black hole almost sucked in the whole world of capitalism.

so, let's try AI 证伪, part of why AI economy now.

in terms of social physics, 柯西超曲面 may exist, but it currently cost society tons of money in trying figuring this "柯西超曲面度量" thing out;

and making things worse, even GR model may have underestimated the "volatility cost" in finding 柯西超曲面, in using its Riemann manifold 二次形 vs finsler manifold, 芬斯勒几何是一种没有二次型限制的黎曼几何，与变分学密切相关, Finsler度量是没有二次型限制的riemann度量, etc

3.

partially, "volatility cost" is associated with 战争是政治的继续 model, since capitalist economics can't handle a dissipative system of today's national and world economy, so Ben/Fed actually played 政治 role as Fed is part of uncle sam's 国家机器 anyway, and with that, Ben/Fed bailed out uncle sam out of its 2008 black hole.

obviously, chairman X is trying using TGchina's 国家机器 to handle this likely coming bear market for china as well.

1.

an example of connected 大脑神经网络" possible 量子效應 "

1)

I was thinking about your posts about fallacies, then 奥卡姆剃刀...then the whole white's thinking regime or thinking models

奥卡姆剃刀（Occam's Razor, Ockham's Razor），又称“奥坎的剃刀”，是由14世纪逻辑 ... 嚴格的說，它們應該被稱為吝嗇定律（Law of parsimony），或者稱為朴素原則。

then the Chinese as an language, then your posts about Chinese language as a 表意语言

"我就是反对表意语言。英语虽然不是表意语言，但是一些词组是表意的，我也反对。因为表意成分不容易淘汰掉，即使错了还能长期存在。

人家日常不一定会用到上百万的英文单词，那些不被用到的，就在日常交流中自然淘汰了。

到是中文，即使某些概念被证明错误，但是由于语言的表意特性，这些对应的字仍然会承载着错误的概念顽强的在日常用语中出现，造成中文中垃圾众多，垃圾概念众多的问题。中文是一种只能继承不能淘汰的语言。

比如“心想事成”这个词。大家都知道“心”不能想，“脑”才能想。可是这个词人们还是在用。想演化吗？要知道把“心”当“脑”用的词又何止几十个，能一一演化吗？就算你把这些词都演化了，那么“想”下面的“心”字边又怎么办？

所以，汉语就是一锅粥，主流语言中最落后的存在。将来，不知道，是中国人淘汰汉语，还是中国人跟着汉语被淘汰。但是自然选择下，汉语必被淘汰"

2)

then I was thinking about how not to waste our brains since most of the time, 语言 is some kind of 热响应, in terms of macroscopic thermodynamics, where most of the time individual 分子's 热响应 does not really contribute any new information to the system' "logic processing core algorism", since individual 分子's 热响应 is largely well predicted by system level's equations already, in terms of 配分函数统计物理 models.

but what if we are also possibly in a 量子/介观物理 environment?

witten1：【原创】量子生物学 I 摘要和前言 2013-01-01 15:21:49

http://www.cchere.com/article/3830274

a very good series, I hope it can be continued.

2.

what is the point?

the point is, if, and very likely, most of the time, we are kind of somehow doing straightforward brain 热响应 "BS" near macroscopic equilibrium state, then we may well be better off relaxing, going out jogging, than scratching our heads arguing with each other, because such a debate most likely are full of fallacies, and can be cut into zeros by 奥卡姆剃刀, then why wasting our lives?

"没有新的热庫=溫度不變, 能量交換,sys 自我内耗 "

but, human system does need to do a people's mass brain war in searching potentially 新的热庫, so system will jack up all of us to jump into this people's mass brain war, 生的伟大死的光荣, with most of us 为人做嫁几时休, likely paving the road to success for those lucky & real innovators to come out and smile from ear to ear in Tiananmen Square, Beijing, 1949, a recent china drama/story as a special case of humanity's 达尔文进化论 in general, etc

3.

中日民族"量子性质严重"

obviously, as seen in Chinese language and its culture, 中日民族"量子性质严重"

as such, more likely Chinese are more crowded living together in some kind of 费米子 quantum system, vs white more of classic macroscopic 自由分子运动, "enjoying" 气体分子平均自由程, vs all of yellows crowded in a wave function of Chinese nation in a 势场 almost exclusively decided and managed by a powerful centralized political elite leadership;

and living in a quantum system as such, we "热"响应 with each other more actively, often have 团结 problems since day 1, with each other as an individual, as a group, as a nation.

and obviously, “不确定性” is a 先天性 feature of such a system, as featured in our languages, thinking models, value system, etc;

and that “不确定性” has to be hedged out at system level by 修身齐家治国平天下 etc as a social value, and at operational level, we have to all subject ourselves to the centralized leadership of social elite who have managed to survive and grow out of the ever-going brutal 修身齐家治国平天下 game of 达尔文进化论, Chinese version.

4.

possibly out of that "logic", TG fxxks 李光耀连斩中国联邦 every time, and 中日民族"量子性质严重"= a love and hate, more hate than love between 中日, forever

5.

meanwhile, the world of humanity is still moving forward likely with largely US innovated and powered AI economy to cut the brain waste of humanity with AI 奥卡姆剃刀, locally and globally, for individuals and for society, while jacking up even more violently all of us in searching of 新的热庫 for humanity,

and regardless of 中日民族"量子性质严重" , and the forever "love and hate" game between the two.

just manage that game well, you 中日民族"量子" baby(:).

6.

obviously, "量子性质严重" has its "good" side as well, for now, let's focusing on the "evil" side of it.

"中文语言的表意特性", as an another "markov chain" in our brain, tends to fool our brain in thinking we have unique and innovative 意 in our thinking, and obviously, most of the time, and eventually, 奥卡姆剃刀 will 正交分解 our self-perceived 创意新意 into a series of 基 already known to the system, all the arguments=0, with very little value added, if any.

in the likely a quantum system of 中日民族"量子性质严重" filled with 糾纏態疊加態, such a standard 奥卡姆剃刀 "正交分解" process just takes longer time, costing systme much more money, than US/west?

基(線性代數) - 维基百科，自由的百科全书

在线性代数中，基（也称为基底）是描述、刻画向量空间的基本工具。向量空间的基是它的一个特殊的子集，基的元素称为基向量。向量空间中任意一个元素，都可以唯一

"相对来说拼音文字可能就比较稳定，在一个文明中使用的频率与普及度会更高，与语言的同步发展关系也更紧密。"

7.

从达尔文主义者眼中看去 [ Fuhrer ]

"脑神经的研究得出结论，的确人（包括动物)对图像的观察与敏感度更高更细致，因此这个文字最初出现一律是图形文字是有道理的"

as such, some kind of "图形文字+拼音文字" as a some kind of AI 拼"基"文字 may eventually be figured out as a standard international 文字 or thinking and communicating medium.

--------

http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3903480

【原创】近代自然科学禀性探讨（二，三） 花16 witten1 字1733 2013-08-12 01:22:38

．．O 呃，见一个问题 月下 字14 2013-09-01 00:11:52

．．．O 伊粟: 数学是自然科学社会科学赌博神学都可以使用的工具 花2 晓兵 字9631 2013-09-01 10:30:33

．．．O 数学不是科学 witten1 字0 2013-09-01 10:29:43

．．O 逻辑理性的“分析”:“格物”得法，“致知”系统 晓兵 字2223 2013-08-15 17:08:37

．．．O 我猜 witten1 字58 2013-08-15 22:15:43

．．．．O 没有新的热庫=溫度不變, 能量交換,sys 自我内耗 花6 晓兵 字2282 2013

没有新的热庫=溫度不變, 能量交換,sys 自我内耗 [ 晓兵 ]

-------

http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3847181

从达尔文主义者眼中看去 [ Fuhrer ]

下面是维基百科的定义：

文字的发展经历了“图画文字-表意文字-表音文字”这几个阶段。要注意的是，这几个阶段只是表现了各种不同文字出现的顺序及相互关系，并不等于后者就一定比前者优越。

最后这句话反过来读，就是说这个顺序反映了人类文字的发展变化。咬字眼的话，达尔文不叫“进化”，叫“演化”，那么就是说文字的变化主要是因应人类不同文化中需求而演化出的不同形式。读过进化论的都知道，多样性是进化（或者演化）的一个重要因素。那么这个拼音文字的出现，应该是大量不同语言文字共同生活混合竞争的结果，就是发展程度差不多的文明之间经常相互碰撞的结果。

中文大约经历的竞争文明多数是自身没有发展到出现文字的，基本上是“同化”对方的结果，因此这个进化的作用不显著，变异比率不高，因此始终是在最原始的图形文字的基础上没有大的变化。

脑神经的研究得出结论，的确人（包括动物)对图像的观察与敏感度更高更细致，因此这个文字最初出现一律是图形文字是有道理的。相比来说，符号文字的出现应该是文字使用比较复杂或者语言比较丰富后的结果。比如说，拼音文字至少是在音节，辅音出现一个固定的范围之后才可能，而图形文字与音节没关系，因此理论上可以无限多，因此出现同音字的问题，甚至可以说图形文字很可能在历史上在许多文明中是与语言独立存在的，比如一直到近代仍有许多民族有语言但是文字只有简单的图形文字而没有普及，直到遇到中华文明这样比较完整的图形文字被取代为止。

相对来说拼音文字可能就比较稳定，在一个文明中使用的频率与普及度会更高，与语言的同步发展关系也更紧密。比如许多我们现在叫做方言的语言如果是在拼音文字文明中，大概早就都发展出自身的文字系统成为单独语系，而不是被更为复杂的图形文字取代了自己的简陋图形文字，而不得不在方言与一个叫“普通话”的东西之间挣扎。

关于文字信息密集度的问题，如果只统计信息量，而不关注信息精确度，那么就会无的放矢。一般短信中都存在场景因素，前提假设等，但是如果是不熟悉的人和事之间通讯，完整不被误读的表达，才是衡量信息密集度的指标。 由此引申，电脑互联网是01码基础上的编码结构，因此信息度可以简单为不同文字的编码量。但是从语言的目的去看，更重要的是这个信息量传递的思想，所谓人与人之间的默契很大程度上就是这个意思，因此完整表达一个思想从外延上去说是个很大范围的信息量，往往也不是一句话可以简单完成的。因此，真正衡量这个信息密集度应该从语义的角度上去做工作。

最低工资一年上涨5%，物价一年上涨5%，GDP一年上涨6%，资产价格一年上涨10%，过上几年，日元兑美元变成1：250，你认为以到时候的日本财政能力，会搞不定现在这个债务的本金吗？

至于利息，到时候会加息没错，但别忘了，现在那些长期国债，可是10年后，30年后还本的，到时候根本不用再大规模发债了，那么这些都不是问题了。

抛开逻辑就很难取得共识，没有共识的中国就是一盘量子。这盘子，大概是TG吧。

奥卡姆剃刀

好吧，有一天你把量子计算机搞成了，我会做点什么呢？大概会直接连上俺的大脑，在虚幻的真实中，享受无尽的美女和神一般的伟大。幸福还真是近呀。

but it can still hang together, producing, moving forward, likely still growing as well, with a world #2 super power title, because of that, TG still enjoys managing 这盘子, alone by itself, not to share it at all with 连战李光耀;

until one day, TG can't do it anymore, prompted by change from TG inside, or outside of china, neither likely in the "foreseeable" future, so everybody has to enjoy 量子 uncle TG for a long while, like it or not.

1.

all 神=fallacies, no value anymore, so money all chasing 美女 etc, and 美女 is always 美女, 奥卡姆剃刀 can not cut into it;

2.

and everybody else will be not that lucky at all

TED | Talks | List - TED.com

there is this young MIT entrepreneur saying that internet is out there to destroy values, likely with 奥卡姆剃刀 to cut all the "fake values" into very little values if any, he gave a few examples, such as those "silly" mainstream companies overpaid his company for doing some projects, which can be done by his company on internet with almost no cost, etc

can't find the link

3.

somehow, global capital market has been 奥卡姆剃刀 cutting into all the emerging market, EEM, EMB, DBV, likely questioning the business models of entire china/EM world, I hope chairman X is aware of that.

不是心想是脑想，那请问My Heart Will Go On咋理解呢

每年购买力下降7%，还连续降10年，你觉得这10年里大家还会以1%的利息去买国债去？真是活雷锋啊

for that kind of questions, human system is a complicated one, so "models" are even more valuable in analyzing it,etc

it is almost the same logic, and I have posted zillion times in the past, still, unless CAS folks make some fuss (a 必要条件 only,value=? if not zero) this Chinese 物理 with math core of TG's Chinese Marxism could go on for how long? nobody knows.

1.

is white 公知, market system better than TG's Marxism of Chinese version, or Indian's temples, not necessarily, it is all relative;

but if, china stays and lives as a largely open system exchanging information/energy largely with US/west logic led world, what china can do?

and what is exactly the "math" of TG's Marxism of Chinese version? even chairman X did not talk about it in this 3rd plenary speech;

so far, "white 公知, market system" is the lessor of all evils, it is very hard not to go with it;

2.

can china still grow Chinese "物理" under TG's "math" of Chinese Marxism?

of course, it just cost the Chinese system much more, in almost all the aspects of Chinese society.

“改革是由问题倒逼而产生”这番话是中共中央总书记、国家主席习近平在中共中央2013年9月17日中南海召开的党外人士座谈会上发表的讲话要点

"倒逼" has not really come to the core math of TG's Chinese Marxism yet, 不见棺材不落泪, which as a social physics problem, 棺材 & 泪 are hard to model and predict, non linear, but when it comes, it could come in a non linear way too.

读过你很多帖子，有不少真知独见，但这次却犯了教条错误，当年的意大利与现在的日本有很大区别，这套法子是玩不转的。

第一，是内需与外需经济，本土经济与海外经济差距太大，这是人类经济史上从未有过的。

第二，老龄化太过严重，而有限的青壮人力首先用在海外资产上，其次用在本土的外需经济，更加使得本土经济不可救药，而投放人力最多的海外资产，日本政府又收不到多少税，财政根本就不可扭转，连人都没有，一切都不要想了。

第三，利率太低，已经丧失了调控的弹性；而海外资产，和收益太多，导致外汇太多，本币很难大幅贬值。

总的来讲，金融体系怕通胀，本币又难以大幅贬值，本土经济又没人，没空间，根本就是穷途末路，毫无办法。

日本的这种情况，可以参考荷兰病，但比荷兰病更厉害，因为日本真正繁荣的是海外的资产，本土的外需经济次之，本土的内需经济最糟，而荷兰病的一支独大，却还是国内的资产。

自由，使得发达国家的资本全球化，跨国资本获得了发展的空间，又降低了人力成本；而民主，抬高了本土的人力成本和环保成本，自由民主的二元背离，使得发达国家的经济陷入严重失衡，而日本因为本土空间和人力空间最为稀缺，海外资产又很强，因此最为严重。

日本病，是海外资产最强，本土出口经济次之，本土内需经济最糟，有限的人力物力首先流向海外资产，反而使得本土经济丧失活力，海外资产又很少向本土政府交税，只能将海外收益低价借给本土政府，维持本土经济的苟延残喘。

这是比荷兰病，更要命的一种经济严重失衡。

日本病，是海外资产最强，本土出口经济次之，本土内需经济最糟，有限的人力物力首先流向海外资产，反而使得本土经济丧失活力，海外资产又很少向本土政府交税，只能将海外收益低价借给本土政府，维持本土经济的苟延残喘。

---------------------

突然看到了中国，日本走过的路，就是中国未来的路。

QE嘛

资本最需要的，是安全，你会投资一个在打内战的国家吗？叙利亚股票你买吗？

日本本币贬值的两大动力，一是央行的拼命注水，而是对外贸易的逆差，这两点都实现了，贬值，其实需要的，就是如何让民众被抢劫而不敢反对，很简单，制造中国威胁就是了。

小贩们不喜欢交保护费，没关系，制造一个小流氓偷东西抢钱耍无赖的噱头，小贩就不敢不交了，一样的。

你别忘了日本现在很大很大的贸易逆差哦。

发达国家的经济可分为三类，一是海外资产，二是本土全球市场资产，三是本土市场资产。

以日本汽车产业为例，其最大的市场是美国，大约六百多万辆，日本本土市场只有四五百万辆，中国和东南亚市场，各有二百多万辆，海外资产部分最强，甚至是本土市场的两三倍。

美国大部分产业，其最大的市场就是美国本土，在上述三种经济成分中，最为强大的是本土全球市场资产，因此失衡没有日本那么严重。

大多发展中国家的经济成分也可分为三类，一类是国有官僚经济，二是外资和合资，三是民族私有资本。

以中国经济为例，利润主要被垄断国企，和技术垄断的外资和合资拿走了，缺少民族精神的私有资本难以发展，只能恶性竞争。因此三种经济，表现为官僚特权资本主义，买办资本主义，野蛮资本主义，这与发达国家的三种经济成分，有着根本区别。中国的国有经济，利润主要来自特权和垄断，根本就没真正竞争力，私有资本连在本土都不能战胜外资合资，在技术资本管理上都缺少竞争力，主要依靠压榨农民工，破坏环境，生产假冒伪劣来占领市场，另一方面，中国本身就将成为世界最大市场，达到美国两三倍也是很有可能的，因此，无论客体条件，还是主体条件，中国海外资产要超过本土资产，永远也不可能。

中国出口经济十分繁荣，但这主要是外资造成的，顺差主要来自加工贸易，自主贸易一直是逆差。你的意思是中国的很多工业生产，大约一半都用来出口，但这不过是外资主导的来料加工而已，比如手机产业，一大半都出口了，但中国既没主导权，也真没赚上几个钱。

要想破坏中国经济，其实很简单，只要全民普选，土地私有化，人民币完全自由兑换，废除计划生育，中国经济长期增长速度，起码要下降一半，而这些都是右派的主张。

如果中国真的患上日本病，中国就成了超超级霸权了，中国资本在海外的生产，是中国本土市场的两三倍，本土市场又是第二大市场，也就是美国的两三倍，那么就没别的国家活路了。