主题：【原创】一些凌乱的想法，想到哪说到哪 -- puma2011

觉得你有一句话没说完。另外，怎么看不到图呢？

美中美印的收入差距很大．１图流不解释．

另外一条：和中国的工业化崛起不一样，美国的再工业化并不是全面的产业链上下游通吃。

好人坏人？

随着观察者的立场利益的变化，好事坏事相互转化。这个道理你我都明白，不需要问。

看不到图是因为我没发上来。一来铁手原来有关发图的链接现在不见了；二来手机发帖，上图不方便。

四大牛人的例子就不举了，就像有人经常用上海得出全中国已经进入发达社会一样．和人网上讨论，认真我就输了．

我想表达的观点很简单：

1.）美国的再工业化不是一个上下游通吃的过程；所以用平均劳动力价格来比较两国没有意义；

2.）加上限定条件以后，中美两国员工成本差距并不明显

3.）在一些能源密集和资金密集的行业中，美国的优势可以抵消中国劳动力成本的优势；

4）中美今后的竞争的焦点在中端高端。中国在努力往高端爬，凭借过去三十年在低端建立的巨大优势和积累的资源；美国的在工业化瞄准的也是中端产业，目标是压制中国的蚕食和产业的转移，同时为高端产业保留基础。 在低端上，美国现在是压制和打击中国的产能，但不是直接竞争。

1，2，3加起来，你觉得你最开始用劳动力成本来反驳美国的在工业化有说服力么？

我是个屌丝，没有四大牛人。你既然不是认真的，那我们就此打住。

黑客们还忙个啥。

中国的未来不取决于外部环境，而在于自身。

美帝可以挑拨矛盾，然后火中取栗。然而寇可往，我亦可往，中国人不是吓大的也不可能被吓倒。

真有战争临近的一天，反倒是好事.国内矛盾会发生巨大的变化，不过一定不会朝着卖国求荣的方向下去，因为13亿人仍然对百年耻辱记忆犹新。不适应未来国家需要的权贵先富阶层未必有能力阻挡13亿人的wrath.

Atomic Bomb intentionally gave away all intelligence to USSR agents. There are naive leftists who intentionally want to help out USSR to balance out USA.

I have not seen one single white European/American elite member who is so attracted by Chinese gov., so that he or she is willing to give away top national tech to China. In most cases by now, it is overseas Chinese who are doing that- but they are not in top circle.

On the contra, I see an idealogically bankrupt nation whose business and political elites are fleeing it.

there was one article on EV in China.

Both China and US started at the same starting point. A divided market and provincial state intervention is destroying EV industry in China: every manufacturer has overcapacity and bloated cost problem and none of them have large enough volume.

Without large enough volume, none of them have scale of economy and competitive advantages in terms of cost/technological leadership.

You need to do the homework. Do not let your blind patriotism blinds your judgment.

Tesla CEO is a genius: he manipulated the market to raise easy cash (convertible bonds, two times) to support its capital expenditure. So FIRST, THE FIRM HAS NO CASH FLOW PROBLEM FOR AT LEAST 4-5 YEARS.

If you live in States, you can observe that there is a convergence of forces (federal gov., state government and silicon elite group) behind him: there is already more-than-normal media/gov. support (not in terms of market intervention) behind Tesla.

近年来，美国一直对页岩油“奇迹”饱含信心，然而就在5月21日，这种信心遭受了美国能源信息署（EIA）的重击。EIA将美国加州蒙特利页岩油可采储量预测下调了96%，而之前蒙特利页岩层的页岩油储量预计约占全美储量的2/3.

页岩气不知道有没有也掺水。

原文见http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-20140521-story.html

del

新能源兴起，油价上涨乏力，成本却悄悄上涨，国内的负担也在不断上涨，你让王爷如何应付？

要扩大市场，就必然面临竞争。

Parisihg:

Really? so do you find those over-confidient Chinese elites more offensive than the servile Chinese elites back in the 80s-90s?

I can not bear the Chinese elites in the 80s-90s,

They certainly have excellent language skills and thorough understanding of western culture.

But they do not have the backbone to make a decent human.

are you one of them? haha