主题：trump逆天改命 -- feebe
美国衰落的根源早在全国上下各阶层都追求享受，渐渐失去开拓精神的时候，就已经种下了，不能把责任归在过去八年。如果特朗普不能逆天改命，而是中规中矩干下去，美国的衰落就不可避免。更何况一个王朝从建立到兴盛再到衰落，这本来就是历史发展的规律，到现在没有过例外。能够有所不同的就在于，衰落之后是否能够再次重新站起来。是一次兴盛衰落之后就完蛋，还是每次倒下都可以重新兴盛起来，这才是当前评价一个国家和民族的最重要指标。
https://www.cchere.com/article/4218298
我之所以预测老床要大胜，是因为老喜吃相难看、一屁股屎，偏偏受到建制派追捧，就会给选民这么一个印象：难道insider里能推出的最好的就是老喜这样的？在这种印象下，主流媒体一边倒黑老床、而对老喜的各种更严重的问题视而不见，共和党大佬也疏远老床，会给选民这样一种感觉：建制派的民主党、共和党以及媒体已经同流合污，合起伙来奴役老百姓。在这种情况下，选民会有这么一种情绪：无论如何要把insider搬下来，换个outsider上去。至于老床如何，最起码比已经在染缸里泡了30多年的老喜强。
我觉得，您不仅低估了美国低学历低收入人群的痛苦程度，也低估了高层的无耻程度。事实上，老床在高收入群体里占优，老喜在低收入人群里占优。美国过去的这十来年，是消灭中产的十来年。在阶级矛盾已经开始激化的时候，统治阶级一边加大剥削力度，一边煽动种族矛盾、挑逗群众斗群众，用这种方式来掩盖阶级矛盾。具体说，就是挑动流氓无产者斗中农、富农，用黑墨做打手。政治正确的口号，只不过是统治阶级转移阶级矛盾、加强剥削、挑逗群众斗群众、煽动种族矛盾的工具。我自己越来越认为“先富”、“两少一宽”是同样性质的东西。
demographics有出入
LATIMES的Poll就预测对了。LATIMES Poll采用了一种比较复杂的分析手法.
Poll不对不要怪被poll的人说谎，该怪设计poll的人本事不到家。
印象中LATIMES一直对群众撒谎留一手，因为当年西岸哪个主要城市的市长选举，黑人候选人就被这么耍过一次。这是凭印象信口说的，需要证实的话我再细查。
我主要看的十几份民调是来自270towin汇总的。涵盖院校做的和CNN这样的全国性媒体。
我不觉得广泛采样是一件很难的事情，特别是Gallup干这个都好几十年了，对美国社会的采样方案应该是相当现成的。
更关键的是这些民调的结果并非“不对”，而是“不对劲”。也就是铁票没有太大出入，是undecided偏差太大。
undecided出现这么大的分布不均，是一种统计上的异常，而不是法律或者道德意义上的失信。
团结大多数？团结个毛啊。不一路追下去搞恐怖统治，那些政客那些媒体会买他的帐？几个月后就黑你把你搞跛脚，四年后就踹下去。
稍事等待，等川普任命了新的大法官后，发起对《亚裔细分法》的司法挑战。
这种环境，床粉都不敢作声的。
没有利益
工作AA的公司市值几万亿，拿1%也是几百亿，这对最厉害的律师也是前所未有的大钱
发掘一个案例，咬住一个公司告，难度也小点。
有律师研究这个诉讼的消息，都能让公司继续搞工作AA会缩手缩脚
对华人子弟都是利好
这是总统能提名的 4000个位置
以前，都是总统给之前的捐款大户，
trump现在拿出来真正招能为国分忧的人才
美国历史第一次！
“There are 1,212 senior leaders, including the Cabinet secretaries and
their deputies, the heads of most independent agencies and ambassadors, ”
包括大使!!
trump真是要 make American great again!
trump和建制派真的要切割了
有这4000 leaders，不会怕建制派的捣乱
trump，没有让我们失望！！
it is time to server your country
https://www.greatagain.gov/serve-america.html
https://goo.gl/N2tBEz
More than 4,000 political appointees, many of whom hold important leadership
and policymaking positions, will be heading out the door next year with the
change in administrations. Finding qualified people to fill these jobs is
an enormous undertaking, but it is critically important to making the
federal government work effectively for the American public.
There are four basic types of appointments:
Presidential Appointments with Senate Confirmation (PAS): There are 1,212
senior leaders, including the Cabinet secretaries and their deputies, the
heads of most independent agencies and ambassadors, who must be confirmed by
the Senate. These positions first require a Senate hearing in addition to
background checks and other vetting.
Presidential Appointments without Senate Confirmation (PA): There are 353 PA
positions which make up much of the White House staff, although they are
also scattered throughout many of the smaller federal agencies.
Non-career Senior Executive Service (NA): Members of the Senior Executive
Service (SES) work in key positions just below the top presidential
appointees, bridging the gap between the political leaders and the civil
service throughout the federal government. Most SES members are career
officials, but up to 10 percent of the SES can be political appointees. (For
more information see the Office of Personnel Management’s website.) There
are 680 non-career members of the SES.
Schedule C Appointments (SC): There are 1,403 Schedule C appointees who
serve in a confidential or policy role. They range from schedulers and
confidential assistants to policy experts.
Source: Plum Book, Government Printing Office, December
Among other things, the chart below shows high numbers of PAS positions in
the State and Justice Departments. That’s due to the hundreds of
ambassadors, U.S. Attorneys, and U.S. Marshals, all of whom require Senate
confirmation. You can also see that nearly a third of the total number of PA
positions are concentrated in the Executive Office of the President.
The scale and breadth of the task of making so many critical appointments is
daunting, and underscores the need for transition teams to get started
early in order to fully staff the leadership of the next administration.
立刻如临大敌，HR 头目亲自出面，战战兢兢，如履薄冰。生怕挨一句反问：“is it because I am black?”. 怕也难免， 人家偏偏就爱反问这句。
我倒是真的很佩服。人家这个地位也是争取来的。希望有一天华人子弟也能有这个地位。
需要从一点一滴开始努力争取。
曼尼托巴省南部的农民雷德-格林菲尔称：“某天，我出门给奶牛挤奶，看到一位好莱坞制片人蜷缩在谷仓里。他很冷，筋疲力尽，还很饿，他求我给他一杯牛奶咖啡和一些免费的鸡肉。当我说我没有这些时，他就离开了，而我还没来得及让他看看我写的剧本。”