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主题:【原创】奔向复苏或者奔向危机的2007 -- 葡萄

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家园 葡萄的帖子RP太高了!

恭喜:你意外获得【西西河通宝】一枚

鲜花已经成功送出。

此次送花为【有效送花赞扬,涨乐善、声望】

家园 【文摘】欧洲央行为何暂停加息步伐

外链出处

2007年09月08日 11:46

尚军

欧洲中央银行6日决定连续第三个月维持欧元区主导利率不变,符合外界预期。分析人士指出,欧洲央行暂停加息步伐的主要原因是近期美国次级住房抵押贷款市场危机引发金融市场动荡和欧元区经济出现减速迹象。

..............................

来源:新华网

家园 【文摘】法报:金融投机者推波助澜 国际小麦价格再度攀升

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家园 高盛:日本各项经济指标在夏季全面下滑

七月份各主要指标全面恶化。与此同时,我们的经济衰退概率指标在8 月份上升至64.1%。回溯20 世纪80 年代以来这一指数超过60%的情况,其中只有一次未发生经济衰退。

正如日本财务省本周公布的4 月份-6 月份法人企业统计数据所显示的那样,资本开支增长势头已经消退。尽管这一数据所显示的资本开支放缓存在重大的统计失真问题,但银行放贷、尤其是对房地产和租赁行业的放贷,表明某些行业中的资本开支增长势头已经消退。

消费者信心的恶化导致今年夏天的个人消费出现疲软。上个财政年度消费者信心出现恶化,原因是石油产品价格攀升以及工资增长缓慢。而这一次,也出现了食品价格上涨、次级债问题导致股票市场下挫、税法改革、以及消费金融法规等因素。

我们认为修正后的4 月份-6 月份GDP 数据将很有可能得出10 个季度以来的首次GDP 负增长。然而,稳健的基本面仍在为商业周期提供支撑,包括向亚洲的强劲出口、强劲的企业盈利(现金流)以及员工收入的提高。

报告链接

家园 几条新闻

胡锦涛会见阿罗约商讨南海共同开发

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菲律宾外长:南中国海开发没有障碍

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中海油携美国公司合作开发南海油田

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外电:2500亿石油美元流向中国

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难解次级债"内乱" 美国众院反咬中国金融开放

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家园 可怜的阿三还在那发梦
家园 【文摘】印度新闻诺干:7月份印度工业生产增速继续回落

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家园 看来大戏真的要开始了

美国次贷危机影响凸显 英国房贷银行出现挤兑潮

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英国中央银行英格兰银行14日宣布,向在波及全球的美国次级抵押贷款危机中陷入融资困难的北岩银行提供金融援助。北岩银行当天宣布,银行今年盈利将比预计低20%左右。 这一消息引得银行大批储户排起长队,取出存在北岩银行的存款。

家园 在他们的内心,中国才是东亚和黄种人的真正希望??

你到日本最大的bbs上把你这个判断用英文写出来看看,看有多少人bs你。民主,这个单词会拼吗?自作多情。

家园 难道英国第一个“毒发身亡”?

欧洲注资救美国,美国会不会“拉兄弟一把”?

家园 英国兄弟提前毒发,美国减息1/2厘赚了面子还赚里子

美联储减息1/2厘,本来对美元将构成很大的压力,但英国按揭银行毒发事件,让美元继续保持强势,其中日元已经由上周1的低点113回去116,英镑在上周甚至一度跌传2算

在18日议息后目前欧元,英镑对美元绝地反弹。但日元继续疲软。

美股在美联储做出大动作后也同时露出笑脸,当日反弹336点(大约2.5个点)。其中各大小银行等最受惠。

外链出处

Fed slashes interest rates to buffer economy

By Mark Felsenthal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Tuesday slashed U.S. interest rates by a hefty half-percentage point in a bold bid to shield the economy from a housing slump and financial turbulence, sparking a big rally on Wall Street.

The unanimous decision by the central bank\'s policy-makers took the benchmark federal funds rate, which governs overnight loans between banks, down to 4.75 percent, its lowest since May of last year. The Fed also cut the discount rate it charges for direct loans to banks by a half-point to 5.25 percent.

It was the first cut in the federal funds rate -- the Fed\'s main tool to influence the economy -- since June 2003 and the first half-point cut since November 2002.

Financial markets had widely expected the Fed to lower overnight borrowing costs, but were surprised by the aggressive half-point move, the first rate cut since Ben Bernanke took over as chairman of the central bank in February last year.

Stock prices surged as the decision gave investors hope the housing and credit turmoil wouldn\'t drag the economy down. The blue chip Dow Jones industrial average was up nearly 300 points, or more than 2 percent, in late afternoon.

However, prices for long-term government debt fell, suggesting investors harbored some concerns on inflation, although prices for short-term notes rose in anticipation of further rate reductions.

\"The Bernanke Fed has finally cast its unwarranted caution aside; we applaud this bold move,\" said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.

But others worried the Fed may be prematurely abandoning its vigilance against inflation to soothe markets.

\"This should make people less confident for the Fed to achieve their number one objective which is keeping inflation at bay,\" said Robert MacIntosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management in Boston. \"They overreacted.\"

Commercial banks swiftly followed the Fed and cut the prime rate they charge their best customers for loans.

PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE

In a statement outlining its decision, the Fed said its move was a pre-emptive strike to neutralize the impact of market turmoil on the economy.

\"Today\'s action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time,\" it said.

The central bank said it still believed the economy faced some risk of inflation, but said market developments since its last meeting in early August had increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook.

\"The committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth,\" it said.

There has been accumulating evidence that a prolonged U.S. housing market downturn and a wild financial market ride over the summer has taken a toll on broader economic activity.

A decline in employment in August, the first drop in four years, appeared to confirm that housing-related strains were weighing on businesses and households.

In addition, reports on retail sales and industrial output in August also showed some softness.

At its previous regular meeting on August 7, the U.S. central bank had said its predominant concern was inflation, even as it noted tighter credit and financial market volatility.

Within days, financial markets unraveled as French bank BNP Paribas froze three funds with U.S. subprime mortgage market exposure. The Fed on August 10 said it would pump cash into the banking system as needed to keep markets functioning normally.

Even so, stock markets tumbled the following week, at one point plumbing declines of more than 10 percent below 52-week highs before rebounding.

The Fed then stepped in on August 17 with a surprise cut to the discount rate and an explicit acknowledgment that risks to economic growth had \"increased appreciably.\"

Tuesday\'s rate cut seeks to address those risks.

\"I think it was the right move,\" said Martin Feldstein, head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, who had called for rate cuts. \"It can\'t solve the problems that are weakening the economy (but) it can help offset them.\"

(Additional reporting by David Lawder and Emily Kaiser)

家园 这是打强心针吧,后果可能只有天知道
家园 看来美联储是计划宁可通货膨胀,也要把经济撑住。

看来美联储是计划宁可通货膨胀,也要把经济撑住。其实也是,毕竟大选年快到了,联储主席又是执政党的人马。

家园 【文摘】美联储大幅降息,考验中国央行的应变能力

昨日美联储宣布联邦基金利率和再贴现率双双下调0.5%,降息幅度之大,超出市场普遍预期。消息公布以后,全球市场大幅上扬,唯独中国股市以下跌回应。

美联储大幅降息,说明美国次按危机的严重性,尽管降息的负面作用很大,能够做出这种选择,表明美联储启动了新一轮的全球财富博弈。

降息意味着加快印钞机的速度,作为国际储备货币的美元大幅减息,意味着为了解决国内危机而向全球输出流动性。美联储行为对谁的影响最大?当然是中国。中国央行刚刚宣布加息,美联储则开始了大幅减息,意味着什么?财富游戏水平的较量。

美国开始对美元注水,意味着储备大量美元的中国加快财富缩水速度。美国一直建议中国加快本币升值速度,中国一直软抗,美元就采取主动贬值策略,看中国怎么应对。

我不知道中国央行怎么应对,但肯定颇为头痛。美联储的行动能不能解决次按危机,我认为可能性不大,美国的股市后续如何运行?估计短促上涨之后还得下跌。在美元注水之后最为强劲的应当是亚洲股市,其中最为风光的首推香港市场——这是中美财富博弈的第一战场。

A股市场呢?不尴不尬地徘徊一段吧!

家园 【文摘】欧元区经济遭遇“9·11”以来最寒冷的冬天

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