主题:关于中外股市市盈率的比较与不解 -- 豫章花开
贴一个计算市盈率的标准公式,是我上Mergers & Acquisitions的笔记,实在是没时间翻译,对不起了
1) Valuation Methods Based on present Value of Future Dividens
o Value of share is present value of all future dividends
o Basic valuation method uses current dividends as a proxy for future dividends
o Value of a Perpetuity
2) Present Value=A/k A is amount of each installment; K is discount rate or premium rate
3) Value of firm: V=D/k D is dividend
o Example, Acme pays $1 dividend per share. Assuming 8% discount rate the value of a share of Acme V=$1/.08=$12.50
o Dividend and earnings are theoretically the same in these examples (earnings per share)
o This is also the PE (or multiple), here12.5
4)Growing Dividends Formula V=D/k-g where g is a growth factor
o Example Acme pays $1 per share assuming 8% discount rate and 3% growth rate, value of a share of Acme is V=$1/(.08-.03)= $20 per share
5)Growing Dividends then Stability
o Example, Acme pays a $10 div per share yesterday (1/15/04). Div are expected to grow at 36% per year for 2 years, but by 1/15/06 are expected to stabilize at $25 per share indef. Discount rate is 8%. Approx value per share on 1/16/04. Show how to work through to answer this question-combine formula, determine present value.
ANSWER—1) determine amount of dividends:
o 1/15/04: $10X1.36=$13.60
o 1/15/05: $13.60X1.36= $18.50
o 1/15/06 and every other year: $25
o so value on 1/15/06 is $25/.08= $312.50
o Then, get value of each div on 1/16/03
(a) $13.60/(1+.08)= $12.59
(b) $18.50/(1.08X1.08)= $15.86
(c) $312.50/(1.08X1.08X1.08)=248.07
o Them sum (12.59 + 15.86+ 248.07=$276.52) to get the approx value per share on 1/16/03
NEVER assume growth rate beyond discount rate indeffinately, this would give infinite value
- 相关回复 上下关系5
🙂中国股市合理市盈率天生要高一些,主要有两个原因 1 陈经 字338 2007-07-03 06:47:57
🙂高成长性 1 唱晚的渔夫 字448 2007-07-03 11:02:01
🙂恩,高成长性,还有利息水平 1 慕飞 字340 2007-07-03 18:12:01
🙂赞同! 我只是想强调成长性在中国的特别意义
🙂中外市盈率比较的时候不能忽略彼此资本市场的结构问题 葡萄 字0 2007-07-03 21:18:01