主题：【美国经济】华尔街想KERRY赢？ -- 西风陶陶

Kerry Presidency Seen a Boon for U.S. Markets

Fri February 6, 2004 12:16 PM ET

(Page 1 of 2)

By Chris Sanders

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If John Kerry wins the Democratic nomination and goes on to be the next U.S. president, experts say it would be good for Wall Street, which likes the way he talks up balancing the budget.

Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, has won seven of nine contests so far to determine the Democratic party's nominee, and faces five more races in the next five days.

"Kerry (policy) will probably be similar to a Clinton economic policy, which would be more focused on balancing the budget," said Gus Faucher, a senior economist with Economy.com, where he tracks elections.

"That would bring down interest rates and drive up bond prices," he added. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Stocks are a different story. Analysts said a successfully balanced budget will eventually help stocks once the deficit becomes more manageable.

It is not a done deal that Kerry will be the nominee. He still faces stiff competition from North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and retired Gen. Wesley Clark. The party's previous front-runner, Howard Dean, a former governor of Vermont, also remains in the race, but has seen his support slip after several disappointing performances.

GRIDLOCK IS GOOD?

If Kerry keeps his winning pace and can beat Bush in November, he would still face the prospect of governing as a Democrat with a Republican-controlled Congress.

In that atmosphere, gridlock often holds sway -- a condition generally loathed by politicians, but cheered by investors.

"There is a large body on Wall Street that believes in gridlock. Gridlock means (the government) does less harm," said Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist with Schwab Washington Research Group.

Aside from the possible logjam, the deficit is the chief concern among political economists. This year's U.S. budget deficit is forecast at $521 billion, close to but still lower as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product than the worst budget shortfalls under President Ronald Reagan.

Kerry has vowed, if elected, to "cut the budget deficit in half in four years," according to his campaign Web site.

"Kerry would probably show more restraint on spending than Bush has so far," Faucher said.

Beyond Kerry, the arrival of new presidents has proven better for equity markets, according to a study done by Banc One Investment Advisors chief economist Anthony Chan.

"Clearly, the equity market performs better under new administrations," Chan said. His study found that market participants feel a new leader will bring new ideas, driving up stock prices.

Although potentially helpful to markets and U.S. growth if he wins overall, Kerry will see few votes from Wall Streeters. Market participants will likely be voting Republican because the party is thought to be more business friendly, experts said.

FAVORED INDUSTRIES

Knowing which industries could benefit from a Kerry presidency is much harder to discern.

Under Bush, analysts said the defense industry, pharmaceuticals and insurance companies all showed improvement.

Yet it remains unclear which specific businesses would profit from Kerry-sponsored legislation.

Allan Meltzer, a professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, said Kerry may also boost health care insurers as he tries to decrease the number of uninsured Americans.

One factor that could spook markets, Chan said, would be a tight race between Bush and Kerry, which might spawn uncertainty and hurt normally conservative markets that can be ruffled by change. Previous 1| 2