主题：【美国经济】华尔街想KERRY赢？ -- 西风陶陶
家园 【美国经济】华尔街想KERRY赢？ Kerry Presidency Seen a Boon for U.S. Markets
Fri February 6, 2004 12:16 PM ET
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By Chris Sanders
NEW YORK (Reuters) - If John Kerry wins the Democratic nomination and goes on to be the next U.S. president, experts say it would be good for Wall Street, which likes the way he talks up balancing the budget.
Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, has won seven of nine contests so far to determine the Democratic party's nominee, and faces five more races in the next five days.
"Kerry (policy) will probably be similar to a Clinton economic policy, which would be more focused on balancing the budget," said Gus Faucher, a senior economist with Economy.com, where he tracks elections.
"That would bring down interest rates and drive up bond prices," he added. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Stocks are a different story. Analysts said a successfully balanced budget will eventually help stocks once the deficit becomes more manageable.
It is not a done deal that Kerry will be the nominee. He still faces stiff competition from North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and retired Gen. Wesley Clark. The party's previous front-runner, Howard Dean, a former governor of Vermont, also remains in the race, but has seen his support slip after several disappointing performances.
GRIDLOCK IS GOOD?
If Kerry keeps his winning pace and can beat Bush in November, he would still face the prospect of governing as a Democrat with a Republican-controlled Congress.
In that atmosphere, gridlock often holds sway -- a condition generally loathed by politicians, but cheered by investors.
"There is a large body on Wall Street that believes in gridlock. Gridlock means (the government) does less harm," said Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist with Schwab Washington Research Group.
Aside from the possible logjam, the deficit is the chief concern among political economists. This year's U.S. budget deficit is forecast at $521 billion, close to but still lower as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product than the worst budget shortfalls under President Ronald Reagan.
Kerry has vowed, if elected, to "cut the budget deficit in half in four years," according to his campaign Web site.
"Kerry would probably show more restraint on spending than Bush has so far," Faucher said.
Beyond Kerry, the arrival of new presidents has proven better for equity markets, according to a study done by Banc One Investment Advisors chief economist Anthony Chan.
"Clearly, the equity market performs better under new administrations," Chan said. His study found that market participants feel a new leader will bring new ideas, driving up stock prices.
Although potentially helpful to markets and U.S. growth if he wins overall, Kerry will see few votes from Wall Streeters. Market participants will likely be voting Republican because the party is thought to be more business friendly, experts said.
FAVORED INDUSTRIES
Knowing which industries could benefit from a Kerry presidency is much harder to discern.
Under Bush, analysts said the defense industry, pharmaceuticals and insurance companies all showed improvement.
Yet it remains unclear which specific businesses would profit from Kerry-sponsored legislation.
Allan Meltzer, a professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, said Kerry may also boost health care insurers as he tries to decrease the number of uninsured Americans.
One factor that could spook markets, Chan said, would be a tight race between Bush and Kerry, which might spawn uncertainty and hurt normally conservative markets that can be ruffled by change. Previous 1| 2
家园 杯子啊，原来你这么牛，也不见你自己说几句 是不是太懒了？俺对这些东西还是很感兴趣的
家园 感兴趣便一起讨论好乐。没啥牛不牛的。风雨，老虎，油油等等高人多着呢。
家园 酒兄,先考考你,华尔街究竟指的是什么? 咱再谈对大选的反应. 家园 另外就是认为美国的金融经济强大稳定有利于世界经济发展的人，如SOROS。 家园 应该定义为手上的PORTFOLIO HOLDING是美国股票，地产，债券的人。 家园 不错，SENSE。我来班门弄弄斧： 这个词有点模糊，用在不同的地方，有些微妙的差异。
如果你问别人在哪里工作，答：在华尔街。这指的是投资银行。投资银行是整个金融体系最敏感的神经中枢，当年都集中在华尔街，现在只剩下高盛还在那里，别的银行都搬家到中城了。
如果说一个公司有重大的新闻，老板问：不知道华尔街有什么反应？ 这指的是证券交易市场的参与者，主要是保险，养老基金, 投资基金等机构投资者。他们是市场买卖双方的主体。华尔街的意思今天大多时候演变成了证券投资者的简称。
对了，我班门弄斧了半天。你是学金融的吗？别让我闹笑话。分析了华尔街是谁，才能看到这些人会对凯立的反应。
家园 是啦。你一问，俺就知道你在打这个主意。还好你还没往下翻 PORTFOLIO HOLDING里面是哪个SECTOR也不一样呀。
不过你做的对，真的讨论的时候，概念越清楚越好。杯子有个毛病，TERMS记不住，以后风雨要多敲打。
好，接着说，你对KERRY和BUSH的经济政策怎么看。
家园 你还真是学金融的?!老天, 这不让我献丑吗，喝口酒接着说: 历来民主党被视为反商，因为选他们上台的其中一支重要力量是工会。这次候选人中，Gephart就铁定的工会支持者，不是铁手的支持者，这回林思云先生再没有看清楚就骂我，我就得对不起他了。
民主党的传统政策，如多加税，扩大政府支出以实现对穷人的转移支付等等对证券市场和投资人都不是好事情。但是，最近一些年，因为这些STIGMA，为洗掉这些偏见， 反到使一些民主党人上台后为表示清白，多工商界频频献媚。克林顿是典型代表，比老布什加的税少多了。所以只要不是比较极端的民主党人，一般被市场看好。尤其是卫生，环保肯定看好，国防工业象波音，洛克希德马丁，石油能源象EXXON MOBILE，CHEVRON等大致唱衰。其实应该说华尔街是一个混合反应。
家园 假设KERRY上台，国防开支，减税额变小，财政赤字减小， 长期利率靠稳，听起来很不错。也是俺一直期望的。
但是有些疑虑，就是通常总统在第一任上都在忙着否定前一任，第二任的表现会比第一任好。另外，现在中东扔下去的资源已经很多，不继续投入便没有产出；很鸡肋呀。
家园 美国人干一半就撂挑子的事情多了，还记得莫加迪沙吧， 我对美国民主党和共和党的恩怨还有点切身体会,一个朋友是民主党要员的顾问，一个同学是前共和党副总统的儿子，有的问题几近于水火。现在民主党党内的口号是：
We are going to undo what George W. did to the world in the past four years.
家园 俺一直很想听听共和党的ARGUMENT，他们的减税刺激经济，还有 SS私有化都有道理，只是经济才刚刚开始复苏，再过一两年会不会说财政收入会好转；当然了，前提是国防开支不能再当成第一要务。
风雨怎么看？
家园 杯子，it was nice talking to you, 改日再聊。 家园 NICE WEEKEND！
家园 SS私有化是依循市场经济基本教义可以得出的内在逻辑: 相信钱在公民手里比放在政府手里发挥的作用大, 效率和回报高。这个基本的信条我是相信的。问题是这会进一步拉大贫富差距。有的人就挥霍掉了，或者不会去投资为未来规划。记得新加坡强迫退休金的计划的理由吧。
现有SS的机制是我们年青的人交SSN税，供养年老退休的人。等自己老了，由更年青的人来交税要我们。这是一个很精彩的设计。但是在一个老龄化的社会就出现问题了。未来一个纳税的人供养俩老同志。就跟未来中国的家庭一样。中国农村还没有社会保险，计划生育后，一个男孩种地，供养四个老人。美国的社保计划将来会陷入相似困境，但比我们的问题小得多。只是缺口怎么添的问题。