主题：2009年开始的几大猜想 -- 凡影随风

banks are always looking for good deals. The problem two months ago was lack of good deals. Now things are changing a bit. One, banks are adjusting their target rates of return due to dramatic drops in funding costs (for example, LIBOR is around 30-40bps now while it was 200-300bps two months ago.) Two, the Administration is forcing banks to begin lending. While banks were reluctant to do so in Bush's term, they may have to do so in Obama's term because the new President is willing to use every leverage he possess. Yesterday, some was proposing a $400K cap of total compensation package for all Wall Street executives, which will threaten those big guys to do what Government demands. Today, the President has promised lowering mortgage rates, and in my opinion he has a lot of political capital to drive that.

In short, when we read U.S., we tend to believe the loose control over Banks by government. It is old story now. Banks will begin to lend and the multiple will kick in. Nonetheless, I do not believe an inflation implosion is imminent, just simply because the government does not want one at this moment.