主题：【原创】土豆与牛肉 -- 晨枫

至于精英对国家的忠诚和尚武是维系央格鲁萨克森统治的基石，我觉得这也曾经是事实，但仍然不能保证以后的什么。当西汉帝国无比强盛的时候，帝国勇士们曾经远征大宛获取汗血宝马，并对任何不臣服的西域国家予以消灭。“犯我强汉者虽远必诛”这种口号今天也让很多人热血沸腾，勇士们的忠勇不比任何人差，但是历史也很清楚地告诉我们西汉帝国灭亡了。

--Han Dynasty is the private property of the Liu family and the leadership is passed over through bloodline, stupid. American elite-based democracy(actually it is a Republic faked as a democracy) has many people's interests at stake. Huge difference. Leadership is transferred through some more civilized internal competition (yes, INTERNAL competition faked as a national election)

Ever since Rome converted into a dictatorship under the Julia family, its internal stamina evapored immediately. When Rome was still a republic, even the genocide threat from Hannibal of Carthage could not kill that nation. It was Scipio, a young 20ish kid that stood out and revived the republic and defeated Hannibal.

The American elites know that they all have stakes in this American Empire world order. You kicked out Bush, then you have another smart kid Obama. After Obama, there will be other candidates. New England WASPs/elite private universities are the source of this talent pool.

BTW, I believe Obama is a bad choice. The next FDR that will rescue America would descend after a 10-year turmoil.

至于贸易保护主义这种两败俱伤的做法，所有国家稍微有点理智的领导人都极力致力于避免，这样做的原因绝不仅仅是他们信奉国际主义或者世界大同的信条，这不是什么慷慨的奉献，而是那样做绝对于己极度不利。

--Agree. It is a historical lesson learned from the early 1930s. But I need to remind you one historical principle: what human beings learn from the history is that they do not learn from the history. That's why history repeats.

Politicians maximized their personal gains under various constraints. Votes are what they care, not international reputation. Under extreme situation, the fallback of globalization is not abnormal, but the most optimal solution. You can google "prisoner's dilemma" to understand the lose-lose outcome.

Globalization reached its peak actually in 1913. What we saw today is the repetition of the 1850-1913. The only difference is that the central stage has been shifted from Europe-America to America-Asia.

当然结果并不总是服从人们的良好愿望，哪怕这种愿望实际上是对所有人都有利的，贸易保护主义是完全可能发生的。

但是你认为美国可以从中获利，我就完全不能同意了。上个世纪二十年代，美国敢于发动贸易保护战争，实质是其他国家的经济行将崩溃，所以几乎全部对美贸易都是赊账或者根本无法兑现的信用支付。

--are you sure? I think we lived under gold standard in late 1920s...Free credit to pay for international trade? Balance of trade was actually settled with gold.

这种做法对美国制造业来说已经到了无法忍受的地步了，因此美国壮士断腕，宁肯牺牲大部分的外债，也不让当时那些无限度打白条的无赖国家继续滥用美国的产品和劳动了。

--no. WWII is driven by both stock market crash and French stupidity. American gov. pushed for the repayment of war debt, thus pressured Britain, France and finally crashed Germany. Please check Michael Hudson's book. I think his books are truly authorative on this topic.

贸易战争开始以后，美国固然损失惨重，但是其它那些主要大国却是崩溃，而二战也就是必然选择了。今天的美国还是当年的美国吗？呵呵除了名字没有变。无赖国家变成了美国，如果今天它真的敢于发动贸易战，崩溃的首先是美国。你会看到美元就像废纸一样不值钱。

--Yes, America is 无赖. 美元就像废纸--It does not matter. 40% USD is circulating outside America. So long as there is no runaway inflation inside USA, American politicians are not going to give a s** about what happened outside America--because Europeans/Asians are not American citizens and they have no votes.

Old 美元就像废纸一样不值钱。But US gov. can reprint new dollars for domestic payment and then default on international obligations. No creditors can force complete repayment because no creditors have the military strength to enforce creditor rights--that's what will happen under extreme situation. Chinese people's "old-friend", the extreme anti-communist president, Richard Nixon, was the person who shut off the dollar-gold door--a serious breach of global obligation. Why Chinese people have such AN AMUSING SHORT MEMORY...

Actually today's US-Treasury-Note-based Brettonwood II system is already a Ponzi scheme. When America owed too much foreign debt, it resorted to inflation to get rid of some burden--a 10-year process and then USD came back again as a strong currency. It did that against Europe-Mid-east(early 70s), Japan (early 1980s), Taiwan(early 1980s). So you should already figured out what will be the next...

这个所谓全世界最伟大的民主国家

--yes, DEMOCRATIC for its citizens. Liu Mang for foreigners. That's true ever since the Roman Republic. It was there, for 2000 years, in the history book. You just need to read it. China is the opposite, that's why most people feel so pissed off at the Roman way...

会像现在的阿富汗一样到处是军阀和流氓黑帮统治的地盘，法律就是枪杆子。唯一肯定的是，那时候剥削你的不再是美国精英，黑帮教父是你主要的雇主和施主。

--As I said about the Roman Empire, domestic practice and foreign policy can be totally different. CIA had been prohibited against American citizens--that's confirmed again and again in the US history. But it has total freedom outside US soil.

quoted, 我还有一个观点：美国在国内推行的d-e-m-o-cracy制度，和它在国际上推行的霸权主义，是可以并行不悖的。这样讲是针对两种观点。一种观点认为，你看美国在国际上那么霸道，在国际上不讲d-e-m-o-cracy，完全是在推行强权主义。它只许州官放火、不许百姓点灯，它为了自己的战略利益可以牺牲别的国家的利益而在所不惜，而且奉行的标准也不一样。它不是讲要支持d-e-m-o-cracy吗，但在有需要的时候，可以牺牲d-e-m-o-cracy而与专---制政权合作。于是据此认为，美国在国内推行的也是假d-e-m-o-cracy。这种看法源自"外交是内政的延续"这样一种教条。

　　另一种观点与此相反，认为美国既然是如此d-e-m-o-cracy自由的一个国家，它在国际上做的事情一定是有道理的，它是在真诚地推行d-e-m-o-cracy制度。这种观点相信，美国即使是占领了其他国家，表面上看是在做一件很霸道的事情，但终究还是在推行d-e-m-o-cracy。这种观点实际上也认为内政和外交应该是一致的。

　　我的观点是，一个国家的内政和外交是可以不一致的。就是说，如我刚才所讲，美国是一个真正的d-e-m-o-cracy国家，所谓d-e-m-o-cracy，我再重复一遍，就是权力能被制约。

一个国家拥有如此超强的力量，必然要运用它来首先推行它自己认为的国家利益；必要时牺牲别的国家的利益。其他国家或许也想这样做，但是没有力量。这就是强权政治。但这和19世纪的强权政治还是不一样，毕竟20世纪有了联合国，有了各种公认的国际准则，多少有一些制约，尽管是软性的、道义上的。

作者资中筠 中国社会科学院前美国研究所所长--truly understand the Western world.

如果美国选择跟中国合作，倒是可以给它一个苟延残喘的机会。

--Yes. That's why it is called G2. Both nations need each other. China reached its current peak with the help of US-dominated order. Without America and WTO, European/British commonwealth markets would never have been open to Chinese manufacturers at all.

只有这种情况下中国要面对可能的输入型通货膨胀，

--I am amused that Chinese elites just start to read the history. 输入型通货膨胀 happened again and again in the last 40 years. I am surprised at your surprise. First, it happened to Germany/France (1970s), then Japan and Taiwan(1980s). Taiwan's stock market boom and bust were partially driven by the trade surplus-induced credit explosion.

精英领导的中国政府为了避免美国佬的直接打击，不得不接受它的武装讹诈。这就是中国人目前享受的"old Liu Mang"维系的和平，并为此付费。但是谁都明白这是谁造成的，尽管这其中少不了Chinese 精英们附加的盘剥。

--Today's G2 are ruled by elites of both China and US. Quoted from blah blah,

世界各地的动物世界都有自己的狮子群，当然有的社会更富裕，有的更穷困，但是哪里的狮子都是食物链顶层，各地狮子之间的分别没有被吃的动物那样大。

因为未来几十年中国根本不会跟任何国家发生战争. 为什么不会打仗？因为中国还不能在这段时间内对本来世界秩序形成真正的威胁，最主要的呢，就是美国的capitalists会跟中国ones 加强联盟，一起剥--削两国的中下阶层，两国利--益集团的利--益重叠度很高，发生分赃不均的战争机会很低。

If I were you, I would worry more about whether I end up as the 狮子 or 被吃的动物。Many Chinese lions have already settled down for their kids/2nd (or maybe Nth) wife in California/NJ/NY. They and you are not on the same boat...

Friend, time to wake up.