主题：cited article, 中国除了不断地说“不”之外 -- parishg

will not happen for at least 10 years. USD will experience a long period of weakness against major Asian currencies (though not necessarily against Euro).

it is deja vu of 1970s.

USD needs weakness to inflate away liabilities for gov, corporations and individuals. And last time it took more than 10 years to achieve that. There will be enough time for all major banks to adjust their exposure to various derivatives.

When US economy came back again with new innovations and solid growth, interest rate increase becomes a natural outcome in line with the interests of the financial industry. Anyway, the current weird yield curve structure makes it very hard for banks to earn interest income from their main business. Their trading income has been severely constrained by the Volcker's rule.

There are all kinds of interest rate derivatives for several decades. Those derivatives are not today's invention. But in 1995, Fed did start to raise interest rate. As you say, 那样很多新兴国家就会爆掉.but, Americans are quite selfish here. They care more about their own national interests only.

BTW, my impression is that Fed and major bank heads have constant info exchange through various private channels. Fed and Treasury actually know quite well what is happening at major banks.