主题：轮回 -- zhuhit

1. 朱前前总经理"减法"

"自朱前前总经理对银行系统改革以来,国内的货币是以美元为背书的货币发行体系,1994年汇改,之后银行法的颁布是这个体系运行的保证.同时起步的财税体制改革和国企改革,将大批工人打破铁饭碗,赶入劳动力市场,加入世贸后,国内工厂利用下岗工人和农民工大量赚取外汇,从2001年开始国内的外汇储备大量增加."

2. HW 减法

environment

3.

X'减法

kind of politics as a start

4.

中国最大风险:highly leveraged 的政治 system

EU, JPY economic zero growth, social system still stable

5.

how about Tgchina?

at the end of Mao time, "毛林共识" ALGO almost fall apart, and 1 of reasons=林 913 event, it kind of disabled TG's 精神原子彈: Chinese people not buying political BS from TG anymore;

now, 轮回 again, 相对论方程"一阶性", many old issues with a system are still there, with more "derivatives" now:

1)can chairman X china dream propaganda make TG 精神原子彈 work again? he is selling TG leadership as 民族主义 now, but no real beef, paper tiger, mostly. He dares not to play real war. dangerous.

2) if economy slows, how do you finance TG's "毛林共识" or 列寧's models: 枪杆子 and 笔杆子? they are very expensive? cut military? even more dangerous.

3) uncle sam short squeezing of Tgchina

6.

with all those system's "information"

smart money is going to suck even more blood from TGchina, making all those issues even worse.

kind of Uncle Sam's financial war on Tgchina, my guess, hoping for some systematic 相变 inside TGchina.

I would think Tg as a group knows all that, but how to handle all these fxxking problems atop a highly leveraged/concentrated political system, with possibly many insider traders helping Uncle Sam?

7.

again, IF "information" at system level comes out, and market figures out that Tgchina has topped out, and that information starts getting priced in, and all system's 减法 operations are coming your way, if you have TG long positions:

TG longs will stop buying, those TG white and yellow shorts in and out of mainland china, all under US command, start shorting more, all staring at TG with red eyes, ready to suck their share of blood, big time.

If Tg falls apart, china falls apart, uncle sam/JPY smile big time, and some local Chinese political groups will smart as well, TG haters globally distributed will all smile.

I don't know the reasons, but I guess Tgchina will likely be ok, and for now, chairman X strategy is to clean up TG, trying regaining Chinese people's trust, and sell Chinese nationalism hard whenever and wherever possible.

but economy slowing down is a big problem: if college grads can't find jobs, and if you put your hands into Chinese ordinary people's pocket, stealing their savings for their children, or if you let their house price/equity fall apart, how Chinese people are going to react?

that is the hardest part of the "model".

Chinese ordinary people of 1.2 billion=system介质, are they linear or non-linear, after experience so many systematic changes in TG's almost 100 years of history?

any 相变 brewing in this big chunk of 介质?