主题：和平与战争 -- 唵啊吽

one cannot really compare TG top with 印度尼西亚政治金融权贵;

if one wants to compare TG with somebody, compare TG to Putin group;

for major powers of world, such as china and Russia, it is much less risky ( in terms of setting up fairly reasonable assumptions for your model) and much more logical to assume that their political elite (yes, %=?, challenging) works with their full heart and brain for their 民族和国家利益. with that, we analyze their systems, assuming their sysadmin all come to work normally(:), like their MD counter parties.

and I am talking about the elite as a group.

again, the assumptions are assumptions;

with my assumptions, I try to see which system can produce best quality information for market to discount, and again assuming Tgchina and USA all function well as systems.

with that we have probably an another more easily accepted assumption: today's world wide economy is largely managed by global capital market, which is basically a information discounting system.

now, the fundamental weakness of TGchina model is not about elite's heart and mind, or about troops, despite of all the worsening corruption issues.

1.

some of the fatal issues with Tgchina model:

lack of a "full blown" 原教旨资本主义 modeled 私有制, legal system or even culture system, and right now, only USA has that kind of 原教旨资本主义, unmatched globally.

only such a system can produce qualified information for the capital market to price all economic activities/risks, and to enforce market's function as well.

Jpy and EU never come out of its deflation trap, partially because they are almost like tgchina, its banking system cannot really chase those 债务人 into hell, the way USA did during 2008, of course, US banks got FED to cover their ass as well.

still USA banks deleverage best, and now they are working out the best, banking industry is a super important pillar of US system as a whole.

2.

EU has similar fatal issues like that of TGchina

tg's banks 保护贪官, jpy banks 保护 networks, and EU banks 保护人民群众, and as a result, all the information flow between those banks and bank customers are all garbage/fake to some extent, etc;

now, the advantage of TGchina's "度量结构"=tgchina 热情高万丈 all over the country, from leadership to the troops, and 高热量=GDP 7%, although producing tons of garbage and corruptions.

vs Europe 人民群众热情=zero, almost, if you go and work in Europe, you can feel that;

jpy: 人民群众 are becoming too old?

but tgchina's "度量结构" built atop Chinese 权贵资本主义 with a communist twist=garbage in and garbage out, taking advantage by many 权贵 themselves for their corruption.

still "这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上" is debatable, and I am not going to argue against you anymore on that point(:).

anyway, what I try to say is that even assuming TG top has good heart and smart brains and work hard for their 民族和国家利益, the system is still not working, in terms of information producting and processing, compared to USA.

so, Tgchina's model problem is a systematic issue, not so much of the issue of "TG top 阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上", assuming that is the case.

and to make things worse, even TG top wants to have a 原教旨资本主义 system matching that of USA, it is not going to work out with their troops brainwashed by TG themselves with 毛 religion for decades, atop 5k years of Chinese culture.

so, whatever TG 改革 does, TG's 资本主义 system is likely going to be a fake one.

3.

but EU's 资本主义 is becoming even a worse fake, and TG top will smile from ear to ear, why?

let US=冠军, and we will work for 亚军, and with our TGchina model, we may even become 0.6 冠军 (:);

and that is a very realistic scenario.

this is kind of why TG top is not really panicking at all, in terms of economic growth. yes, they are worried.

I have written on this a few time, and in GR 时空, we got an "information problem" (:).

kind of why I have posted extensively on brains, information related physics.

so, the bottom line: US's strength is largely with its 原教旨资本主义 system, a full blown information producing and processing system, and without USA 度量结构, global capital market will not function at all;

that is one fundamental power of USD as a global reserve currency or information currency.

any other currency will have much less information content or power. period.

below that top tier of USA 度量结构, TG 土八路's "度量结构" may in future work out better than EU, however ugly TG 土八路's "度量结构" may look like. 臭豆腐实惠.

and I don't know much about JPY.

because of that, Uncle Sam and Tgchina are more likely to work out deals in making money.

remember 汪洋's "marriage" proposal?

TG will propose to marry Uncle Sam again when Hillary comes into white house.

so, basically, no military war, period; and yes, you can transfer and diversify your capital into USA, but chairman X is issuing hot party tickets for 私有化国产, so if you are smart, kiss his ass, and work for him in china, and then you will have even more financial wealth to be allocated globally(:).

4.

information challenge

and I have been posting about this all the time, it is not about that TGchina will fall apart economically, it is not about TG not going to reform, it is about TG's 臭豆腐实惠 and kind of 黑手党 "度量结构": as a nation, you cannot attract global brain power with that kind of 臭豆腐实惠 and 黑手党 made "度量结构", and china may be losing even more its own brain power to US because of that, 劣币驱逐良币;

but TG top may fxxk back: I don't care, I know how to play 人海战术 (:).

kind of why I have been saying, that after all the fires and smokes, USA and Tgchina "打个平手" is a very likely outcome, "long term", and that may be actually very good for global economy.

5.

if the above scenario is what TG's strategic planning about, X will continue to 打左灯向右拐;

打左灯 including all the hooplas of showing strength against USA, and even now all his those 亮肌肉 moves are fading away;

向右拐: his 私有化国产 move, real and huge, omg, anybody not impressed?

and have any Chinese 老百姓 made any fuss over that 私有化国产 move at all?

whatever TG does=good for Chinese 民族和国家利益, the core ALGO of TGchina "度量结构", which is still solidly running in the "genes" of almost every Chinese's brain, wherever they may be.

seeing that, Uncle Sam: chairman X, we want to do more business with you(:).