主题：实体经济的困局,是缺钱吗? -- cgangcm

to be brief

1.

more about "政府守夜人"模型

even TG top admits that in today's information sensitive and possibly quasi-quantum physics based global capitalist (or the name should be changed to information-capitalist) economy, 政府让市场 to manage 产业升级 etc, because fundamentally, even for superman TG top, it has everything, but no information, no models, to understand or manage business such as 产业升级;

therefore, a 理想环境 "政府守夜人"模型: government does not contribute much information at all for the system, therefore government should be paid only as a 守夜人.

and we know, everyday, even in mainland china, you have those information contributor becomes 资本家 overnight, with money saved from government, system can rewards those information contributor even more, often at high premium, and discounting any information lacking BS, whatever or whomever it may be. period.

2.

"毛林共识"政治模型

yes, uncle sam 亡我之心不死 (more of 政权更替 game than anything else, and even 政权更替 game is almost impossible for uncle sam to play it out, yes, never say never).

then, why Mao as a head trader shorted US and longed Soviet, and "all in", with his ass totally unhedged?

well, that was Mao's first international trade, understandable;

then, around year 2000, 中华邦联 of tw and 新加坡 opportunity, what 386 was doing then, fxxking that army hooker? understandable again?

with that "中华邦联 of tw and 新加坡", TG could build a huge Long China position 盘子 across almost entire Asian-pacific area, potentially a global game changer.

that is why I keep saying that Chinese nation as a whole lacks ALGO power, lacks a overall system to generate and grow ALGO power, in all the aspects of Chinese society.

"摸着石头过河" under "毛林共识"政治模型 is not an ALGO ("毛林共识"政治模型 is naked ass, still unhedged), it is not a modern system, it is a farmer's business model back in ancient china when Chinese farmers 靠天吃饭.

now, TG has "successfully" (?) modernized Chinese nation with Marxism and white technology, but china is still operating "毛林共识"政治模型, which is huge tax to the whole Chinese society, in terms of financial and all kind of 资源.

and most importantly perhaps, "毛林共识"政治模型 and with its all kinds of new "social science"derivatives of every day has been basically 脑残 Chinese nation.

overall, mainland china today=半封建, 半殖民地(Marxism and western technology), a global military power (global reach?) and economic power(global reach), and regional/ domestic political power?

kind of why Chinese elite send their money and kids mostly to US?

why? did we say TG top has been very smart? yes,

but TG is basically 内战内行 外战外行, and in today's globalized capital market, Tgchina's risk is at system level, and much higher compared to other major countries such as USA, as long as TG top is running "毛林共识"政治模型.

they have to.

those smart guys are not going to risk ass under "毛林共识"政治模型, naked ass, still unhedged and fundamentally a high risky model running the whole chines nation, "all in" again.

Unless, TG top can become a global market maker, have "毛林共识"政治模型 fxxled into white ass, all over the earth.

well, that may be a risk white has to hedge heavily, if 386 was not fxxking that army hooker and forgot to go to work the second day (:)

for now, it is a china dream, a domestic version inside GFW.

3.

why not "看准了, naked ass, all in"?

"witten1" did some posts on 测不准原理 and other qm posts;

basically, social system (a forward looking and a dissipative system) is even worse, even you manage to find a 边界 for the system, how about the degree of freedoms, and how about the coupling and interaction among those degree of freedoms?

I posted a little about how difficult it has been to build a qm model at 分子 (such as DNA) level: basically too many degree of freedoms, and coupling among them.

if you cannot really model a 分子 system, then how to model a human system full of TG and uncle sam and their troops(:)?

so the risk is inherent, and is hard to hedge, so what to do? never "all in", and go slow;

often Chinese people laugh at US system: how come you guys are so slow, if our uncle TG is here, he will get it done over night;

well, yes, you all in overnight, and when market opens the next morning, all those white wolves are staring at you with bloody eyes, with you in the center and totally naked.

is this where tgchina is now? kind of?

with Europe is zero growth, etc, tgchina's situation is not that bad at all, but never say never, and largely to hedge that nightmare scenario, X is likely continue to tighten up "毛林共识"政治模型.

""Information stays and moves around in a GR world, with "blackhole" included, 能量(信息)守恒, 霍金辐射=出来混总是要还的"

for now, 用孩子喂狼.