主题：对未来的经济的展望 -- zhuhit

（财经）蠢驴当道，私心作崇。

大大有心无力，首辅夸夸其谈。

资产泡沫一旦形成，必然形成依附之上的利益集团，2007-2009美国credit crisis 之前，Tim and Hank 不是不知道局势危险，但斗不过庞大的背后利益。中国的房地产利益集团捆绑大量地方官员与大量的鼠目寸光的中产阶层，就是系大大-李也不敢去碰。

中国其实只有放弃汇率，但是这会引发中美贸易战，造成进入IMF目标落空，背弃了中美间的一些政治上的密约。So in sum, benefits are uncertain and damages could be real.

Actually, China's recent boom ended in 2012 when railway freight volume indicated a clear and sharp decline. But the leadership in 2012 resorted to reckless & secretive bank lending to muddle through 2012, creating even big black hole for the next administration.

The 2013-2014 policies were mostly 吊盐水。

If China did not stimulate economy in 2012 and allowed a sharp slowdown--It will bring down both the US economy and European economy, therefore, China will not have to face today's dilemma: QE will continue and China can fix its own problem in 2013-2015. LUCKILY, US AND CHINA WILL RE-EMERGE AND ENTER THE BOOM BUSINESS CYCLE AT THE SAME TIME, leaving Europe in the limbo of endless deflation and stagnation.

Now what we have is a divergence of business cycles: China is going into a prolonged bust period, while America, even running a risk of mild recession, has largely recovered from a horrible banking crisis.

蠢驴当道, 夫复何言.