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主题:【文摘】一道有趣的概率题 -- 天下第一银杏树

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家园 应重新选择, 概率变大 1/3 -> 2/3, Monte Carlo verified

i. 不重新选:

猜对汽车概率 1/3

ii. 重新选:

1/3概率: originally you have picked the car, after switching, you loose the car.

2/3概率: originally you have picked the goat, after switching, you gain the car.

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Conclusion: you SHOULD switch!

You can write a simple Monte Carlo program to verify it.

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